저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인은 기관 채택 확대와 2100만 개 공급 상한에 따른 희소성으로 가치가 커질 것이며, 5년 내 150만 달러 가능성을 제시. 금 대체재·신흥국 헤지 수요가 상승 동력. 미국 경기 둔화 우려 속 금리 하락 압력 및 달러 약세 전망을 언급하고, 스테이블코인 확대가 국채 수요를 통해 금리 곡선에 영향을 줄 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
We think institutions are taking it seriously as a new asset class and does seem to be breaking out again. And while the correlation seems to have been close to the market this time around, we're up to nearly 20 million units outstanding now. The most we will ever see is 21 million. and institutions have barely started moving in.
We think that the scarcity value of Bitcoin is going to grow. Bitcoin was the first out of the shoot and the NASDAQ and other stock market indicators followed. Kathy Wood emphasizes Bitcoin's growing appeal among institutions, highlighting its scarcity with a capp 21 million unit. She points out Bitcoin's resilience during financial uncertainties such as the regional banking crisis and its dual role as a risk on and riskoff asset.
Wood underscores Bitcoin's potential as a hedge against inflation and its importance as a new decentralized monetary system with no government oversight. would forecast significant growth for Bitcoin, predicting its value could reach $1.5 million in the next 5 years. This surge will likely be driven by institutional adoption, substitution for gold, and increased demand in emerging market.
She also highlights the broader crypto markets potential, pointing out that stable coins and decentralized finance could redefine traditional financial systems, encouraging investors to act during market downturns, which stresses that the current phase offers a unique opportunity to capitalize on the growth potential of digital asset.
As crypto adoption accelerates globally, she believes Bitcoin and related technologies will play a transformative role in shaping the future of finance and wealth generation. I do think it's very important to look at gold and bitcoin. So there is a a measure the S&P to the gold price uh which some people are looking at and they're saying uhoh this thing is breaking down and uh but uh that there's another measure and that's the S&P to the oil price and that measure is breaking out.
Uh I actually think gold has been much more of a flight to safety. Oil is giving us a better sense of direction here in terms of talk about a massive tax bet. The oil price coming down as much as it has uh is probably going to offset a lot of pain out there in a way that many people are are not appreciating yet.
So that's uh that's that. Uh on Bitcoin, yes, we've been watching it very carefully. uh like gold it is a riskoff asset. Uh but like gold it is also unlike gold it is also a riskon asset. So it has been equivocating in here. Uh but as you say Ryan it has held in pretty well and does seem to be breaking out again.
Uh one of the most important reasons is we think institutions are taking it seriously as a new asset class and while the correlation seems to have been close to the market this time around um it is not always this way. If you look at uh what happened during the regional bank crisis, Bitcoin was the first out of the shoot and the NASDAQ and other stock market indicators followed.
And when we got our first exposure to Bitcoin in 2015, Greece was threatening to leave the European Union and Bitcoin was moving up every time there was a threat. So, we've watched it very carefully and yes, of course, it is risk on also because it's a technology uh and a very important technology. It's a new monetary system, a global rules-based monetary system with no government oversight, first time ever.
uh and as I said a new asset class. So we think it's a very big idea and that we're up to nearly 20 million units outstanding now. The most we will ever see is 21 million and institutions have barely started moving in. Uh so we think that the scarcity value of Bitcoin is going to grow over the years as AI is reducing the scarcity val uh value of many other uh things out there including labor.
If you think about it, AI is going to be taking overtaking more labor. So labor will become less scarce, right, than it has been. And uh so the market will be looking for scarcity value uh anywhere it can find it. That's that's what the market pays up for, right? And we think Bitcoin will be one of those.
As you know, our bull case in five years is $ 1.5 million. So we're at about above 90 in the in the last hour or so. and um we think we're going to 1.5 million. You'll see that it's substitution for gold and institutional investment that power are the biggest powers behind uh this move to uh 1.5 million.
And then the third very important one is um actually did I just see Bitcoin did cross over 90,000? I think I think it did. Oh, there we go. So uh so uh the the third is emerging markets. We think that emerging market businesses and consumers are going to find Bitcoin more and more important uh over time and as an insurance policy against confiscation of wealth which can take the form of inflation uh which is caused by bad monetary policies and bad fiscal policies in other parts of the world.
And I think it'll be an insurance policy for anyone in the developed or the emerging markets, but anyone with an internet connection can buy Bitcoin. And that's going to become more important over time, just like gold. And they did park company because again, Bitcoin does have a little bit more of a riskoff, I mean a riskon element to it as well.
So there was a little bit of payback for last year's performance. Um, but uh yes, it is a hedge. It is a technology. It is a new asset class. It is a big idea. And so yes, now I am going to uh differ with what I believe is a consensus view evolving and that is that the um that the dollar is is going to go down if we're right and deregulation tax cuts uh occur here in the United States as well as broaderbased tax cuts in the form of tariffs coming down everywhere um favoring the US because if You'll notice there has been unfair treatment particularly with uh non-tariff trade barriers then the rate of return on invested capital in the United States should increase relative to that abroad and that should be dollar positive.
Um this is what happened during the Reagan revolution and in fact the dollar uh was so strong that uh we had to have the Plaza and Louva Accords where all of the Treasury ministers around the world including the United States said okay we've got to sell some dollars to relieve some of these liquidity pressure.
So I know that the dollar has been quite weak over the last few weeks since so-called liberation day especially uh but if you look at it in the context of the very long term it is still up there. Sure. Uh it is still up there. you know, we were on a trade weighted uh basis, we were in the 70s uh in uh 10 years ago or or or so forth.
And so now we're we're at 100 and we've come down from 110 plus. Uh so in the context of history, it is not that weak in an absolute sense. In the context of a few weeks, I agree with you. This has been a big move in a very short period of time. Kathy Wood emphasizes Bitcoin's unique position as a scarce asset and a hedge against inflation, gaining momentum among institutional investors.
Its resilience during crisis and dual role as both a risk on and riskoff asset make it a critical part of the evolving financial landscape. Looking forward, Wood projects Bitcoin's value could reach $ 1.5 million in 5 years, driven by institutional adoption, substitution for gold, and its role in emerging market.
She encourages investors to seize opportunities in the rapidly growing crypto space, predicting transformative impacts on global finance. President Trump wants to be one of the greatest presidents ever. Uh that's his objective and uh he's not going to get there by throwing the economy and into a recession and the stock market into a bare market.
Uh and we're verging on both of those now. So, we're getting close to the line in the sand uh where I think his negotiations will kick into gear and will be more productive than what we've heard recently. The stable coin movement, those are backed by Treasury securities. And while they're Treasury bills, uh I'm sure they're ripple effects throughout the yield curve.
Uh so uh the stable coin stable coins are now up to 250 billion and we expect them to go to 1.4 trillion in the next five years. So we would expect the pressure on interest rates in the near term here certainly because of the economy to be uh uh to be down to go to go down. Uh Bitcoin to gold uh gold has had a good run against Bitcoin.
uh uh Bitcoin uh did very well relative to gold in 23 and 24 uh but not so this year. Nonetheless, we do think over time Bitcoin will appreciate relative to gold and as you can see it has not broken uh the uptrend line. the uh economy dropped contracted almost uh 4% that's real GDP growth sequentially at an annual rate in the first quarter that's a big drop now a lot of that could be imports uh ahead of the tariffs and surely that is the case uh the offset though would be a lot of them ending up in inventory so there could be a lag there I don't know uh I would say that in the second quarter the likelihood of a negative quarter is increasing here just because of the amount of uncertainty.
Uh well, we know that about 30% of the labor force is probably wondering if um if it's going to keep uh its jobs or the people in the labor force are going to keep their jobs. uh federal uh employees. Uh now that's not the biggest part of government, but there is a trickle down effect to state and local and even to quasi government uh jobs in the health care and education space.
And uh that that would account for 30% of the labor force. uh just uh wondering, worrying, and probably holding back on purchases. Kathy Wood emphasizes Bitcoin's growing importance as a scarce and innovative monetary asset, predicting its value will rise as institutional adoption increases. With its limited supply nearing 21 million and its dual role as both a hedge and a risk asset, she believes Bitcoin will play a critical role in reshaping financial markets and investment strategies.
Looking ahead, Wood projects Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million within 5 years, driven by institutional interest and adoption in emerging market. She encourages investors to seize opportunities during market downturns and highlights the transformative potential of digital assets in the evolving financial landscape.
Will Bitcoin scarcity and institutional adoption make it the dominant asset class in the future? How does Bitcoin compare to traditional assets like gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty?
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