저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
경제 불확실성 속 혁신이 새 시장 리더를 만든다는 주장. 2008년 사례처럼 시장 바닥 전에 혁신 기업이 먼저 치고 나간다고 봄. 정부부채·GDP 대비 재정적자는 구조적이며 DOGE와 성장으로 개선 가능하다고 언급. 실질 인플레는 Trueflation 기준 1.3%로 하락, 유가는 사우디 증산으로 압력. 10년물 금리는 4% 아래로 내려왔고 추가 하락 가능성 언급, 스테이블코인 확대가 국채 수요를 통해 금리 하방 압력 가능. 금 대비 비트코인은 장기 상승 전망, S&P500은 금 대비 약세 가능성을 인지하나 생산성 회복 시 방어 예상.
다듬은 글
A lot of businesses, a lot of consumers are are fearful and uh and they're going to be looking for better, cheaper, faster, more productive, more creative in terms of products and services. uh and and so um we have high hopes that uh that uh when the new leadership shows itself and typically if we are in a a correction or a bare market towards the end is when we see new leadership.
I remember very clearly in 0809 the market did not bottom until March of ' 09 and our strategies started outperforming in November of '08. This is what typically happens as uh as the market looks to uh the new leaders. In times of economic uncertainty, innovation often emerges as a beacon of hope, reshaping industries and creating new market leaders, Kathy Wood highlights how fear and tightening wallets among consumers can catalyze breakthroughs similar to the innovations that rose from the 2008 financial crisis.
Drawing from historical patterns, she points out that leadership in markets often emerges well before a broader recovery, as was evident when her strategies outperformed months before the 2008 bottom. Today we are witnessing a similar scenario with disruptive technologies like cryptocurrencies and AI powered solutions gaining traction amidst economic challenges.
Wood believes the current economic backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions and rising debt could set the stage for transformative changes particularly with the integration of blockchain technology and stable coins in mainstream finance. These innovations, she argues, hold the potential to redefine global trade and financial systems, paving the way for the next wave of market leaders.
So here, you know, I I've seen these charts for years and years and years. And um but I didn't realize that we had hit from a public debt as a percent of GDP uh that we had hit the peaks the peak we reached in World War II. Um in in the 2000 time frame um there was the thought uh could we be heading um in the Tekken telecom bust could we be heading uh towards uh towards that level but here we are and you know that was a crisis time and the country really did pull together after that uh to get the debt as a percent of GDP down it did it in two ways more control over government spending.
Of course, we weren't in the war anymore, so that was a a big source. Uh but also on the GDP side, rapid growth, post World War II, very rapid growth. Um Doge, we think, is an attempt uh uh to to pull us uh out of a quagmire, it seems, in terms of government spending. It's what held the economy up or real GDP up uh along with high-end consumers during the last few years.
But um this is certainly excessive as as we see it now in in context. Um and you can even see in the in the 20s uh in the 20s and 30s we didn't get any anywhere near uh this level. Another look at uh at uh the budget uh and you can see total outlays as a percent of GDP around 24%. Now um what is not clear from this chart uh uh but I do know having studied this is that receipts tend to uh top out in the 17 to 20% range.
If the government tries to tax people uh any higher they figure out ways around it. they either stop working or they uh do a lot more under the table. I don't know what it is exactly uh but that uh recedes as a percent of GDP uh rarely goes above 20%. So this deficit um is is structural and uh I do believe that with Doge and with more rapid GDP growth, uh we could move back into the period like the '9s, uh that was the last time we saw a surplus.
Uh and it was under President Bill Clinton and um N. Gingrich who uh was a powerhouse in Congress and they worked together uh to get that done. We do not have as much of a bipartisan situation uh right now. So, we'll probably have to do more on the rapid GDP growth side of things. And if we're right, um if uh if deregulation, tax cuts, uh uh lower interest rates are what we're going to see as the government has more degrees of freedom uh uh during uh negative GDP quarters, uh then I do think we'll see much more rapid growth uh in the months uh in the months ahead uh months and years ahead, I should say uh onto mon monetary policy.
Um here I've presented this a number of times. It does seem like um uh CPI which is in the green there is kind of stuck in that 2 to 3% range. Now there are other uh measures of inflation out there that um are are saying something different. There's a measure called trueflation and we'll have it for you in the next I think we're going to subscribe to their service.
So we'll have it for you in the next uh package or in the next uh in the no. Um it is saying that uh inflation is down to 1.3%. uh and this is a a real time measure of I don't know I used to say millions of uh products and services but I think it's more like tens of thousands or thousands but real time constant monitoring and um it peaked at 11% just about the time that the uh CPI peaked around 9% it is now down to 1.35% uh and As you may also notice, the oil price seems to be under severe pressure because uh Saudi Arabia is opening the floodgates.
Um purportedly it is uh railing against Kazakhstan and Iraq overproducing and is just opening the spigot. Um there could be other other reasons. um part of the negotiating out there. Um President Trump I think is with Saudi min ministers this weekend, maybe even MBS himself. And there may be and and as he he's been very vocal about getting oil prices down.
Uh so so that m that may be uh part of what's going on here as well. Um, of course, the third variable is weakness in the economy. So, all of those accumulating, which is going to take that true flation measure of inflation down even further. Periods of economic uncertainty often create the ideal environment for groundbreaking innovation.
Kathy Wood emphasizes that when fear grips consumers and spending tightens, opportunities arise for disruptive ideas to flourish. Reflecting on the 2008 financial crisis, she notes how new market leaders often emerge during downturns as evidenced by her investment strategies outperforming well before the broader market recovered.
Today, a similar shift is underway with advancements in technologies such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain, and AI driving the next wave of economic transformation. Wood believes that these innovations are uniquely positioned to address pressing global challenges, including rising debt and geopolitical instability.
The integration of stable coins and cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance could revolutionize how we view money and trade while deflationary trends powered by technological advancements might reshape traditional economic models. As new leaders quietly take shape, these technologies could redefine industries and create unprecedented opportunities in the years ahead.
Now we're on to more market indicators. So, uh, Bloomberg's commodity price index. Um, we did this chart, uh, we did this chart earlier this week. I think the Bloomberg commodity index has dropped back to to 100. uh and um and and probably will continue to go down if uh if our economy is as weak as as we think it is.
Uh but as I always like to highlight, you know, the Bloomberg commodity price index is today where it was in the early uh 2000s, in the early 90s, in the early 80s. um which uh from an inflation concern point of view um helps put where we are in perspective. Uh the real inflation was in the early 2000s.
For some reason it didn't get through to the broad-based uh uh indicators uh the way it did to commodity prices. Um but there is much less inflation now. Now we've got oil prices the most visible cracking on us here. Metals to gold. The purchasing power of gold has continued to go up as you see uh uh in the purple line.
So metals relative to gold when this line is going down. The purchasing power of gold is going up. Uh gold can purchase more in the way of metals uh at a given price. Um, now this chart uh doesn't show what has happened today. The 10-year Treasury bond yield did drop below 4%. Uh, if if we're right on what's going on here, the the the 10-year Treasury bond yield probably will continue uh to come down.
I know a lot of people speak about China and other countries discorgging uh our Treasury securities. Uh and from a supply demand point of view um that that is happening and uh and it is um uh it does it is a lack of uh demand relative to supply uh showing up. But there is a bit of a flight to safety going on right now.
And there's also another phenomenon. Um I don't know how much it would have an impact on this, but uh the the um the stable coin movement, those are backed by Treasury securities. And while they're treasury bills, uh I'm sure there are ripple effects throughout the yield curve. Uh so uh the stable coin stable coins are now up to 250 billion and we expect them to go to 1.4 trillion in the next five years.
So we would expect the pressure on interest rates in the near term here certainly because of the economy to be uh uh to be down to go to go down. Uh Bitcoin to gold uh gold has had a good run against Bitcoin. uh uh Bitcoin uh did very well relative to gold in 23 and 24 uh but not so this year. Nonetheless, we do think over time Bitcoin will appreciate relative to gold and as you can see it has not broken uh the uptrend line.
Um here is the S&P price relative to gold. Um, this is an indicator that Charles Gov of Gavcow is monitoring and he would not be surprised to see the S&P fall as it did in the 70s um, uh, relative to gold. We would be surprised to see that, especially if we're right on all of the productivity and pent-up demand uh that uh fiscal and monetary stimulus um should unleash during the years ahead uh and the productivity gains associated uh with it.
On the other hand, uh he he would have expected uh this metric to go down as well, but it is not. Uh the S&P is holding up relative to oil. Uh oil of course is capitulating recently as I mentioned because of uh Saudi Arabia's recent decision. And just a few more charts here. 10-year Treasury yield. uh we we did break the downtrend and and that was a 40-year downtrend uh probably in CO got to too low of a level uh and we would not be surprised to be in a range now uh for for the next few years 2 and a half to 5% range perhaps uh but if we see more deflation thanks to uh the new technology ies that are are um evolving.
Uh the we wouldn't be surprised to see it settle a little lower than two and a half. Uh but clearly the burden of proof is on us on that one. Periods of economic strain often serve as a crucible for innovation, a theme Kathy would passionately underscores. She highlights that during downturns, as fear tightens consumer spending and businesses seek efficiency, opportunities for transformative solutions emerge.
Drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, Wood points out that new market leaders often rise even before the broader economy recovers. Today, the confluence of technological advancements such as cryptocurrencies, stable coins, and AIdriven solutions provides a fertile ground for a similar shift, offering new ways to approach global challenges like rising debt and inflation.
Wood also discusses how technological deflation and increased productivity could redefine economic models in the years ahead, potentially outpacing traditional strategies. The adoption of stable coins and the resilience of Bitcoin amid geopolitical and economic shifts suggest a turning point for the financial sector.
As markets adjust and innovation takes the lead, the future may belong to those who embrace these changes early. Do you believe cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could eventually replace traditional financial systems? How might innovation in technology impact global economic recovery in the long term? Answers in the comments section.
Comments 0