저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라의 저가 차량 전략과 2026년 로보택시 양산을 AI·자율주행 성장의 핵심으로 보고 장기 긍정 견해를 밝힘. 마이크로소프트는 Azure AI 성장과 800억 달러 capex를 근거로 AI 리더십 유지 전망. 엔비디아는 경쟁 심화와 수출 규제 리스크가 있으나 AI 인프라 투자 지속으로 성장 지속 전망. 딥시크 충격은 AI 확산에 따른 수요 확대 요인으로 해석. 전반적으로 AI 무역은 유효하다는 낙관론.
다듬은 글
now let's bring in Dan eyes web brsh security Global head of Technology research more on Tesla and Microsoft as we're still waiting for meta's results meta late but Dan eyes Tesla is here and it's way off the lows here now down just 2% after missing on the top and bottom is it about these cheaper Vehicles yeah I think there's two key things here one Dan IES highlights Tesla's focus on lower cost vehicles and advancing its autonomous technology including Robo taxi production by 2026 as key to driving future growth despite softer earnings he sees Tesla's AI driven initiatives as a path to significant long-term value Microsoft strong AI momentum with projected Azure growth and major AI Investments positions it for success in the evolving Tech landscape despite minor headwinds its $80 billion capital expenditure reinforces confidence in its AI driven future for NVIDIA IES discusses challenges from emerging competitors and potential export restrictions but emphasizes that continued Investments in AI infrastructure and Innovation will sustain the broader AI industry's growth committing first half of the year that they're going to produce those I think there was a lot of concern that they Wen this potentially could push out in 2026 they doubled down there and then the other thing that's important in terms of cyber cab and autonomous basically saying Robo taxi you'll start to get parts later this year full volume production 2026 that look 90% of the story right now it's about AI autonomous Miss Cybercat what I believe is at Next Level obviously numbers itself a little sort of soft but that's the key I think there's probably a stock that's going to be up tomorrow Microsoft's also off the lows um what matters here particularly in the commentary this is uh a a earnings call where we get a lot more on guidance yeah of course and this is one you always really have to wait till till guidance but 13 billion in terms of that AI trajectory I mean that's really what the Street's focused on because this is something that's going to be 2025 ultimately 30 billion that's what's driving this nadela and Microsoft story and even though if you look at you know you talk about currency that could be a bit of a headwind I think this is one as your growth actually accelerates I think the conference call is going to be bullish they double down on the 80 billion in terms of cap back especially this week you know hearing with deep seek and everything else I think this is another one I look at this numbers I feel more bullish because that ultimate AI number I mean that is that that's really the L tiet right now if you own Microsoft I want to go back to Tesla for a second how important is it given everything that he is focused on right now including in Washington for musk to be on the call and when you do think about something like Robo taxi and autonomous driving especially on a day where weo is announcing that it's going to expand its own taxis to 10 new cities uh how much now hinges on that policy green light happening with this Administration yeah I mean look it comes down to the dere Rory environment the musk bet on Trump trump you know in terms of the bet for the ages now you need to see it in terms of the autonomous road map from a federal perspective it is important obviously musk is on the call talks about Robo tax he talks about ultimately the timeline there the view of autonomous unsupervised FSD look Mor these are really the things that are going to be Drive the stock I mean look earnings itself a important in the next quarter or two but I believe when you look out I believe the AI autonomous story that's worth the trill alone that's really going to be front and center on this call along what John asked about first half of the year making sure doubling down these lower cost vehicles are out there that's how you get to 20 30% type of volume growth in 2025 given the fact that we had this deep deep seek ShakeOut in the market to start the week we just got some comments from some of the CEOs Tech CEOs that John just spoke to with earnings we're still waiting on meta uh Zuckerberg just early this month actually had some interesting commentary on The Joe Rogan podcast about deep seek how to think about what this does to drive down cost and who the beneficiaries are going to be because there are going to be beneficiaries just thinking about some of the comments from service now for example yeah and look I mean it comes down to that's 65 60 to 65 billion they're going to reiterate that probably three times terms of capb backs for meta and Zuck 80 billion for Microsoft look deep seek it was a scare but all and I continue to view it it's bullish for the overall World AI Revolution because going back to service now paler you know salesforce.com it's the use cases it's software that that's not slowing it down in terms of what we saw in deep seek and I think if you look at that it was a shot across the bow But ultimately what we're going to look out in the next week or two in terms of earnings the AI Revolution is actually accelerating and I think that is really going to be sort of a narrative that we hear even tonight ever ever cor's you know defending all this today uh they call it generally buying opportunity see but Nvidia this was inevitable and it's always been part of my thesis and why I don't have a big position regrettably cuz I would have made a lot more money in the stock but part of that 80 billion in capex that we're hearing the 65 billion in capex I'm guessing unless it's somewhere else going to be somewhere else in your income statement is going to develop of competing chips and cheaper ways to build out their AI capabilities so it's no surprise the only surprise with Nvidia is the timing cuz they were not going to be the first Semiconductor Company in the history of the world to maintain a technology lead forever no but the of course not but the speed in which we are asking this new question is largely unprecedented but the price at which the stock was selling implied that the Monopoly could go on for a very long time which is why we didn't own Nvidia and you know Miss lot you missed a lot know understand that there's another also reports out of Bloomberg that the government may also be working on tighter export controls for NVIDIA chips you see those shares moving down to session lows just a little bit more than they had been but enough probably to put some further pressure across the whole markets remember nvidia's sales of chips to China specifically are a big question mark for analysts who are trying to figure out what its revenue and earnings exposure are going to be in the next couple of quarters they were able to kind of thread the needle on export controls earlier that's in part how deep seek was able to still use those chips to create its latest large language models um if there is a further tightening though that would certainly be a business headwind for them let me just sneak in a quick mention then while we have you about Nvidia so again would it represent a big earnings revenue headwind for them if the government clamps down further on their China sales yes and no I mean remember we we've done the calculus on China and Nvidia and what it's meant and where those export controls already were an impact I think the bigger issue uh is the I wouldn't say it's existential but what we had with deep seek over the last few days is one where are your biggest customers uh has everybody overspent for capex ETC that that's the story with Nvidia it's less to me about export controls in China I'm sure the company's going to say and do and feel uh that they want to do everything that's on the right side of that I'm less worried about that all right let's get to Nvidia here interesting move in Nvidia down 4% today in the regular trading session up though after hours Bloomberg reporting the White House is considering tighter curbs on its sales to China Megan cassella has got the details here Megan Melissa that's right so that Bloomberg report says that Trump officials are having what they called early conversations about putting additional restrictions on nvidia's chip sales to China and specifically focused on the H20 chips these are those scaled down AI chips that had initially been designed to get around current US export controls on nvidia's sales to China the company saying in a statement this afternoon that the Biden administration's thresholds they say had been set on performance levels reached 5 years ago and that it's ready now to work with the administration as it pursues its own approach to AI now the White House and comgress Department did not respond to my request for comment on that report but I would caution that it's very early for any decisions on export control policy no one is yet leading the Commerce department or even the export controls office within Commerce for the administration so we're in very early stages here I will add the Commerce Secretary nominee Howard lutnick did today say in his confirmation hearing that he will be very strong and rigorous in his approach to export restrictions toward China in order to ensure that the US remains a leader on AI so it could suggest that this type of policy will be supported moving forward and Jean you just mentioned uh you know it's Nvidia being a beneficiary of all this we know that right so a couple weeks ago Microsoft uh meta they gave uh their capex guidance for the year so here we are they're reiterating it and you know let let's see how this stock you know how far it could run a little bit if it could fill in that Gap from Monday but you know going back and looking at that chart over the last 3 years since it really took off there's not a single Gap to the downside there's plenty to the upside so I guess the question here is that is it going to be enough uh as far as this guidance is concerned you know given the headwinds that we might be seeing around the globe with some of these open source miles uh out of China like is there a chance that that the trade is just done for a bit so this is specific to Nvidia or the Nvidia maybe the broader AI trade I think we're we're piecing together data points real time that's what happened with deep seek because it was one data point and the market had to extrapolate it uh uh to uh I think out to several years now since then we've had some more data points and like you said with Nvidia and their business and I think the bottom line is this is that if capex infrastructure continues to remain strong we're going to see models even if they're novel models like we saw from deep that can be produced at lower prices they're still going to want to build the infrastructure to get those models out faster so if we continue to see that I think that this is uh that buildout which is what we're hearing tonight from Zuckerberg if we continue to see that I think that the not only will the hardware spend more broadly continue but I think that the the the software piece is going to start to play out and so I think that this uh this broader AI trade is is still very intact Tesla and Microsoft are advancing their AI strategies despite short-term hurdles Tesla focuses on scaling lower cost vehic vcle production and launching robotaxi by 2026 highlighting its push into autonomous Tech Microsoft with $80 billion in kex and Azure AI growth positions itself as a leader in the expanding AI Revolution despite minor headwind Nvidia faces challenges like tighter us export controls and Rising competition but remains Central to AI infrastructure growth significant Investments by Microsoft meta and others in AI hardware and software underlying the Market's continued expansion can Tesla's focus on autonomous vehicles secure its leadership in the EV space how will Nvidia navigate growing competition and Regulatory pressures in the AI chip Market
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