저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 팔란티어의 AI 성장 가능성을 근거로 목표가를 75달러(또는 더 높게 트리플 디짓)로 제시하며 강세를 유지했다. 세일즈포스는 AI 매출이 내년 40~50억 달러 증가할 수 있으며 실적 전 채널 체크가 강하다고 평가했다. 반도체는 미국 대중국 수출 규제로 일시 조정 가능성이 있으나 엔비디아·브로드컴의 장기 승자 전망은 유지했고, 마이크론은 우려 대상으로 언급했다. 테슬라·중국 EV 업체(BYD, 리오토)에 대해서도 긍정적 견해를 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
yeah I think that's a great setup because almost more important than the quarter is what they're seeing in terms of from the AI strategy monetization look based on all of our work we could be looking at four to five billion incremental of AI revenue for sales force going to next year I think it starts this quarter our checks have actually been very strong in terms of customers existing on Asian force and just what we see in terms of overall deal activity I I'd actually say AI was almost a headwind for Benny in sales force if you go back to last year now it's a tail in we're bullish this could be A4 $425 stock wait just off agents or is there something else well I think that continues to really be just this first part of the broader AI strategy that's because you're going to have ai for moft AI for Tableau AI for core CRM it speaks to almost going back to the paler strategy this is the software age for AI it starts in 25 Benny off's going to be in I'd say seat 3A when it comes to this uh AI plan taken off Dan IES discusses paler strong performance arguing it could reach triple digigit stock prices due to AI growth despite concerns about its high price he also highlights salesforce's upcoming earnings and the potential for its Aid driven growth predicting an additional 4 to5 billion in AI Revenue next year IES views AI as a Tailwind for Salesforce and sees the company as a leader in the space lastly Ives addresses us export controls ON Semiconductor companies noting that while some companies may be impacted the effect is not significant and he believes it won't drastically change the semiconductor industry's Outlook uh we got to start with uh last month's action paler the best performing stock in the S&P 500 you put research out on it I this is a layup for you would you buy at these levels this stock is up over 275% your day oh I mean we're buying it continues to be one of our top picks and the reason I think this could be a triple digit stock is where AI is heading look Frank as the use cases ramp and software phase ramp it will be led by carp and paler and that's why I just don't I just disagree with the argument ah it's expensive this is a billion of free cash flow that could be four or five billion free cashow you could be A1 $125 stock that's why we're bullish despite haters continuing to hate all right like I said it was a layup your price tet 75 bucks you're like double the street right now also I know you're a big fan of Dr karp and the whole team over there all right I want to switch gears looking ahead to Salesforce reports earnings after the Bell tomorrow um most analysts are expecting a strong quarter but I think the question is uh AI agents and agent force I know you have Channel checks uh you know I know you you tapped in a dream Force what's your take on the quarter and also the the growth driver of Agents I mean I think we just have to get ready and just get used to this kind of thing right cuz last week the US barred semiconductor companies from selling any chips to China and that's one of the reasons why I Applied Materials fell pretty substantially lamb research those companies have almost 30% of their revenues to Chinese companies so you can see why they fell 12% is probably manageable Becky but I just think this is we're going to get have to get used to this it's back and forth and that's one of the reasons why I think the semiconductors have actually paused right I mean Nvidia and Broad have been the stellers they've been the standouts um and I and I think they will be the long-term winners um for years and years to come um but I do think that they have had a nice run and overall the semiconductors over the last couple years have had a nice run and so I wouldn't wouldn't be surprised to see you know just some some volatility and maybe they maybe they pause for a bit that's one of the reasons why software has done so well because you're seeing money come out of semis and go into software I I I guess that raises the question though of so many other companies that have big business or that are reliant on China for manufacturing whether that be apple or Starbucks or or Nike you know a lot of those companies are making moves to to move their manufacturing or to try and expand their manufacturing reach from where they're getting these things but it's not an overnight process do you sell those stocks as a result of what you're seeing this morning I don't think you sell those stocks but I am uh glad to see over the last four years that these companies have actually uh been moving um their businesses out of China and around the world one of the reasons I like India so much is I think that they are an absolute beneficiary of of this thing that's happening um and also we've seen and we've been talking about reshoring and onshoring here in the United States that is alive and well and a very very a powerful theme I think Becky for the next decade to come we're going to spend $4 trillion do on the energy transition wave if you will between now and 2050 and I think this is all part of that trying to get supply chains here um and uh and so that companies can diversify uh and and not be in the position that they were in when when we saw Co all right Steph let me ask you um Tesla may be a very unique company in this whole mix just because of Elon musk's close ties to president Trump can he walk this line because China's not going to want to aggravate someone who is so close to incoming president Trump at this point yeah I mean I I think that's uh the biggest question um we'll have to see we'll have to wait and see certainly uh just by reaction of of the stock price since the election I think people believe that that that he can all right so let me put you on the spot a bit so we often talk about all the winners I know you're always bullish on Tech and all fairness when we're talking about agents who's in the lead and who's trailing right now look I think who's trailing maybe some of the pure players like if you look at names like a a nice system aarant I think sap trailing a little I think in terms of who's leading at sales force look if you look broader in terms of AI I think service now as a leader I would I would argue to say right now the pure players are leading but but this is a huge transition stage because you're going to have the clear winners there to find next 69ine months in terms of software but I believe a clear winner will be Salesforce the other one's Oracle Oracle and Salesforce so Microsoft alphabet everybody else they're kind of in the middle of the pack this area I think they're behind but also it speaks our view like is KH ultimately is out at the FTC given our view there that's going to increase the omeg I think Microsoft's going to make an acquisition there we go a little forecast right there prediction if you will uh I want to talk about some news today the B Administration announcing new controls on chips and other chipm equipment when it comes to China there are some car outs for allies countries like the Netherlands I have asml in mine right there um your view on the export controls let me keep it really bottom line of keep it simple um who is going to possibly be hurt by it if you look at the SMH ETF or a popular way to invest in chips that was down on the news yeah look you're going to have this is not just here you're going to have this continued play out game high stakes Boker us and China but I saying Nvidia down a bit I think that's overdone because I don't really see them impacting as much there'll be carve outs there you know Intel you know you look at how they could ultimately play here asml that'll be a positive tsmc would be views maybe a negative along with like something like Micron but Frank I think as it all plays out this is kind of more background noise I don't view this as really changing things relative to they're selling into it's actually not a dramatic change from what we've seen over the last called three to six months from Biden Administration all right so you seeing headlines mostly background noise is there one stock in the chip space you just stay away from on these headlines just it's just bad business look I think the one maybe you're just a we a little leery of is probably Micron in terms of where this all plays out all right last question I'm going to flip the script on you a little bit uh byd show me some other Chinese EV makers came out the delivery numbers today I know you've added EVS to your coverage um smashing delivery estimates at the same time we're seeing uh the more traditional automakers like a stellantis under some pressures their CEO steps down just kind of your 2025 forecast look ahead to EVs do the traditional players do they catch up do they stay in hybrids what's going on with the Chinese players have they possibly peaked in your mind I mean we've seen tremendous growth when it comes to these Chinese EV companies I think that's really the story is that China EV growth I think we've seen the worst days in the rear VI eror I think in terms of byd Neo of course Tesla I just had a record quarter from a EV perspective that's going to be a huge narrative I don't think necessarily some of these tariff and other issues negatively impacted and traditional players to land a CEO out over the weekend gm4 the EV tax credits is a headwin look this is going to be definitely a fork in the road situation for some of the Detroit big three the core EV players that continues to be the trade not just Tessa but also names like byd byd show me Le Auto that's who you're talking about exactly I think those are really some of the core players when it comes to this China EV trade joining us right now is Stephanie Link high tower Chief investment strategist and portfolio manager and Stephanie let's start with this news that we're hearing again this is we've only heard this in the last 10 minutes or so but there are headlines that China is investigating Nvidia over what they say as a suspected violation of anti-monopoly law Nvidia shares right now down by about 2% and I think our first question was wait as second do they even sell chips to China turns out they do I I think in the July quarter they sold something like 12% of their revenue uh $3.7 billion uh accounted for sales in China what what do you think of this news Dan IES highlights the transformative role of AI in driving growth for companies like paler and Salesforce predicting substantial revenue and Market expansion despite concerns about valuations and challenges he remains optimistic about their potential on semiconductors IV sees us export controls as manageable with key players like Nvidia poised for resilience and continued innovation.
doou believe aai will sustain the long-term growth of companies like paler and Salesforce how much might us export controls shape the future of the semiconductor industry
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