저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏 등의 투자 철학을 다룬 강연 편집 영상으로, 특정 종목이나 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다. 핵심 결론: 좋은 투자는 사업을 이해하고 지속 가능한 경쟁우위, 정직한 경영진, 안전마진이 있는 가격을 찾는 것이다. 이해 가능한 사업 선별: 이해할 수 있는 사업만 검토하고, 나머지는 빠르게 걸러낸다. 경쟁우위(해자): 특허, 입지, 브랜드(예: 코카콜라) 등 지속적 경쟁우위를 가진 기업을 찾는다. 경영진: 정직하고 능력 있는 경영진을 선호한다. 가격과 안전마진: 훌륭한 기업도 무한정 비싸게 사서는 안 되며, 불확실성을 고려한 안전마진이 필요하다. 위험·보상 비율: 옳았을 때의 수익과 틀렸을 때의 손실을 비교해 판단한다. 능력 범위 활용: 잘 아는 업종(외식, 출판 등)의 기업에 투자 우위가 있다는 조언이다. 재무 확인: 현금과 부채 상태를 확인하고, 부실 기업보다 현금이 충분한 기업을 고려한다. 분산과 실행: 일반 투자자는 펀드를 기본으로 하되, 잘 아는 기업 몇 개를 추적하는 것도 가능하다.
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you have to value the business and as a follower of ben graham what one piece of graham's advice would you say has had the most impact on you well you you can't get rid of one leg of the three-legged stool and and still have a a good investment philosophy but uh i would say that uh the most important thing uh over a long period and working with big money uh is to understand the business i mean uh if let's just say for the moment that you were given a million dollars for whatever some was necessary and you could uh look around knoxville or look around all of tennessee if you want and buy into any three businesses you know between now and a week from now private businesses so they they're not trading or anything of the sort and you've got a week to do it or you have to give the money back now what will you be doing during the next week i mean you can look at all these companies some of them you're quite familiar with some of them you're less familiar with some you know by reputation some of you know the management some of you don't you know their competitive situation you know what will you be thinking about during that seven day period how will you actually be screening these companies out i think you'll look you're going to be looking for businesses that have enduring competitive advantage you know you you don't want to buy a burger king franchise just because nobody's come within 10 miles of it yet because you know wendy's and donald's and all of those will be there pretty soon i mean it isn't necessarily who's earning the most money now you you you're going to look for something with enduring competitive advantage now that takes a business with some kind of a moat around it because capitalism by definition is is is a system where every time somebody has an economic castle somebody else is going to come after it it's just the nature if you open a restaurant that's successful here in town you know somebody's going to take your menu and probably take your chef maybe cut your price maybe offer a little more parking maybe be a better better okay whatever i mean capitalism consists of going after the other guy's castle now if that's the case you want a castle with a big motor around it there's a lot of ways you can have a motor on something you could have it by patent protection you could have it by location in certain certain areas i mean uh if you own if you have something in people's mind like coca-cola six billion people in the world practically all of them have something in their mind about coca-cola largely favorable they're going to sell a lot of coca-cola and it won't make any difference if somebody is a half a cent less than some serving than coke so that's an enduring competitive advantage and you want it run by honest enabled people you don't want to go in with a crook and you don't want to go in with a dope now the best businesses to buy are the ones where you could have a dope in there i mean peter lynch says you know buy a business that's so good that an idiot can run it because sooner or later one will you know and and there's some merit to that you know those are the kind of businesses to own so you want but you want a management that's able and honest and then you want a price that's sensible and that's what you'd look for you'd go around tennessee got a week to do it and you'd immediately screen out a whole bunch of things you just know that they weren't a fertile area you know and that's an important thing to be able to do to know it just get rid of all kinds of things there was a great article in the new yorker 30 years ago when bobby fischer was playing spassky and in the famous chess match which drew attention around the world and they examined how the mind could with billions and billions and billions of possibilities how it could group things so it immediately cast it down to where you had like four options and of course when the when the when the humans play something like deep thought you know or whatever the latest version is of the computer on that that computer is making maybe 700 000 or a million calculations a second and the human mind is competing against that but the computer is checking every possibility and the human mind somehow has this ability to cast out 99.999 percent of those things that the computer has to go through in order to focus on the three or four possibilities that really make sense and investing is a lot like that's not that tough because there aren't that many companies but you want to cast out all kinds of things if somebody told me that my life depended on picking among the dow jones stocks a group of 10 that would be the best performers or or or outperform the index as a whole i would spend my time thinking of the worst up companies in there i would cast out things and then i would figure i'd left those behind and i would i would that's an easier way to approach the problem actually than than trying to pick the 10 best so you would have to if you were thinking about the state of tennessee you know there's a whole lot of things you wouldn't examine you just figure they're too tough you might decide you know car dealerships were too tough it's always going to be competitive who knows whether ford or general motors are going to be selling more cars five years now or whether there's may tariffs on foreign cars who knows so you just say i'll give up on car dealers uh that approach uh that you use there is the same approach you really want to bring to the stock market you've got 3 000 companies tonight you can look at on the new stock exchange you don't have to play once a year if you have 20 good if you have five good ideas in your lifetime to get very rich third thing in graham's book is the margin of safety if you come up to a bridge and it says capacity ten 000 pounds and you're driving a 9 800 pound truck you drive down further and find another bridge i mean you know they nobody knows exactly what that capacity is and it may have been signed may have been put up three years ago so you always leave a margin of safety you don't you don't try to cut things that close you wait till something kind of shouts at you in the stock market if i get an idea about looking up a company and i get the 10ks and so on i would rather not know the price because i'd rather value it without knowing the price a stock is part of a business you value a business and then you divide by the shares outstanding but what you have to think about is what kind of a business are you getting into what are economic characteristics who are competitors what's its management like all of these things that relate to a business instead of a little ticker symbol and you can build all kinds of all kinds of structures on that but that's the foundation and if you've got that in mind and that's in the intelligent investor i've never found anything that remotely compares with we have to deal with things that we're capable of understanding and then once we're over that filter we have to have a business with some intrinsic characteristics that give it a durable competitive advantage and then of course we would vastly prefer a management place with a lot of integrity and talent and finally no matter how wonderful it is it's not worth an infinite price so we have to have a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety considering the natural vicissitudes of life that's a very simple set of ideas and the reason that our ideas have not spread faster is they're too simple one thing you're trying to do is take care of all these public companies out there here's the company i really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well their competitors are doing poorly i think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you're not not just like the one overpriced the fairly priced something was fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know a five for four sale you know if you had been managing the magellan fund this morning you would have been buying like crazy i would have been researching like crazy i've been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happening this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if we have a recession there's nothing to do with them and that's the kind of kinds i'm trying to buy but let's say if a company just think of this as being you say to yourself i think this company's going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if i'm right how much am i going to make if i'm wrong how much i'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if i'm right i hope i'm going to double trip my money if i'm wrong may i lose 30 40 percent that's a favorable ratio you say if i'm right the stock's not going to go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock i don't know okay so this morning you get up and you go in and you look at at those companies that fit you that you know something about you have to have an itch let's say let's say cement industry goes from crummy to semi-crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know what if you know the publishing industry you're you some people have you have an edge you work i mean when if you last 30 years you worked in the restaurant years you would have seen taco bell you would have seen some barrels you would have seen pizza hut you were seeing chili's you seen these companies doing very well you should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about i mean i know nothing about local area networking a lot of people are buying this cisco they're buying the equipment saying we're going to root together all these peripherals and put together the services they but but that's not a bad buy because they own a huge percentage of their market you know what that was they're saying only a few people had that i said my god if it works for us other people try it then colleges will try it high schools will try it they'll go overseas they knew they were early in the ball game and they should have been buying that company instead of out buying something they don't know anything about some oil drilling company i mean people have this tendency to always buy something they don't all you need is a few charlie all you need is a few good stocks this is your song this has been your song for a long time only by what you know but people wake up in the morning and say there's 5 000 companies out there which one should i buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies there would be a lecture on them so you can say this company i want to look at i want to see what are the cash looks like and if you don't understand cash is if you understand what debt is i always said let's say you're looking at companies that are doing poorly that they're not doing very well why don't you buy the one that has three million dollars in cash instead of the one that's almost bankrupt i mean a lot of companies are selling two or three dollars a share they might be losing tenants no brainer but people don't do it well they don't do it because they don't know how to do the research well they shouldn't look up the balance you say listen they get three million dollars in cash they're losing 10 million a quarter they'll be okay this other company's got no no cash 700 million dollars in debt they're about to blow tablets but you're telling every small investor in america anyway they ought to invest in a mutual fund aren't you i'm telling you you could do both you ought to you could be invested mutual funds and occasionally you should be able to find a stock that's going to make a difference in your life if it's an industry you know something about the industry or local company there's a lot of people that they sell the kind of motorings in texas they said my god i mean a lot of people have seen local companies so friendlies there's been companies come along locally the people made st jude medical made a lot of money for people who was that motel you stayed in and then you went and bought a bunch of it yeah like kentucky was that lucky that's what it was right you stayed overnight there and i also got advice from somebody that was a competitor there's a halloween guy saying this guy boy they're killing us they're tough you know so that way you get a lot of information don't throw it away all right
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