저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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결론: 빌 밀러는 현재 시장이 전반적으로 비싸지 않으며, 아마존·알파벳·메타 등 대형 기술주는 가치가 좋다고 본다. 시장 밸류에이션: 2022년 1월 기준 대형 우량주는 비싸지 않고, 클라우드·SaaS 등 고성장 영역 일부는 매우 비싸다고 평가. 아마존: 최근 12개월 시장 대비 부진했으나 대규모 설비투자 사이클이 끝나면 잉여현금흐름이 크게 증가할 것으로 봄. AWS 단독 가치 약 1.5조 달러로 현재 시총에 근접, 광고 사업과 합치면 전체 소매 사업을 사실상 무료로 얻는 셈이라고 주장. 올해 미국 택배 물량이 UPS를 넘어설 것이며, 창고 면적 1억 2,200만 평방피트 증설 계획을 언급. 알파벳(구글): 가장 오래된 핵심 보유 종목 중 하나로 모멘텀이 강하고 계속 보유할 것이라고 밝힘. 메타: 특정 전망은 밝히지 않았으나 주가에 규제 리스크가 반영되어 있다고 봄. 30억 명 사용자와 현금창출력을 근거로 가치가 매력적이라는 취지. 메타버스 방향에 대한 견해는 중립. 넷플릭스 사례: 과거 매도 후 주가 급등을 경험해 장기 보유가 나았다고 회고. 출연자 전망: 대형 가치주 중심 장기 보유 관점 유지.
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um you seem to always find things that you deem attractively valued or really way undervalued in in most markets that's the case 99 99 was a very expensive market and that's what you know ushered in three down years in a row for the first time since the since the great depression but i don't think this market is terribly expensive there's some names on the very high growth uh sphere the cloud computing and software as a service things like that they're they're pretty expensive in fact some are very expensive in my opinion but the the big names in the market you know apple and amazon and alphabet meta facebook i don't think any of those stocks are particularly expensive so i think i think though they all offer good value we own i think almost every one of them and um and have done and have for a long time what's kind of the upside potential um and let's start with amazon uh which you've owned for a really long time when people ask me the best investment decision i've ever made i say buying amazon on the ipo and what was the worst ever selling a share of amazon amazon is uh it's underperformed the market uh fairly significantly in the in the past 12 months and that's because they're going through a very large capital spending cycle and the market then isn't sure if they're going to earn above the cost of capital even though they always have done that in the past but what's interesting about amazon particularly so so you know something like alphabets had a great year and amazon not so great but what's interesting about amazon to me is that if you mark the aws business the amazon web services business to a blend blended multiple of its major competitors in that area such as uh or a software as a service such as um microsoft microsoft or salesforce.com then what you'll find is that aws alone is worth almost amazon's current market cap we think aws standalone business is worth about 1.5 trillion dollars and then the advertising business which is growing much faster than the advertising business at meta and at uh in an alphabet if you give them the average price to sales that those companies trade at then that gets you about 95 of the way almost 100 of the way to amazon's current market values you get the entire global retail business for free and and the other thing about amazon is that amazon this year will bypass ups is to deliver more packages in the us than worldwide than ups does and uh and ups has been around 100 years and amazon will build more warehouse space this year uh 122 million square feet to put that in perspective walmart has if my memory is correct 136 million square feet and walmart's been around 50 years and amazon came public in 1996.
so we think that amazon actually is a very a very good value here because the free cash flow should explode over the next few years as this capital spending cycle wears down you mentioned buying amazon at the ipo another company that you bought at the ipo a very unusual initial public offering was google so you know what's your current assessment of google what's our second largest holding what we've got i should say yeah we we like it a lot it's got a lot of momentum right now in terms of the the business it's a core holding for us and i think it will continue to be so there is such a thing as a core holding at least at miller value partners well core in the sense that we've owned it a long time yeah and and we haven't seen a reason from a valuation perspective to sell it in some cases where we have sold things that went up a lot and we thought were expensive netflix being the most prominent example where you know we we bought it on the old stock at eight we sold it at 32 and thought we were smart and it went to 300.
then it collapsed to the 50s we bought it again in the 50s then it went up 12 times in the next two years and then we sold it after that and i think now it's up about 10 times since then so it would have been better just to leave it alone facebook meta what what's your assessment of that company at this particular juncture i don't have a view about mark zuckerberg clearly has a view about where their future lies and that's in the so-called metaverse that's why they're changing their name this kind of integration of of uh the digital world and the and the real world and and clearly there's a there's a ton of stuff that's going to happen in that you know in that space um i i think that you know the market understands what the issues are with with meta from us from the standpoint of all of the concerns about the power of social networks the harm that they've done i think that those issues are real but the stock price reflects it so if the stock price didn't reflect it i'd be a lot more concerned about it but you know the valuations have come in uh a lot they still generate a ton of cash they have three billion users worldwide so no one's ever going to overtake them and i think that there's you know and they keep talking about more regulation saying they like it and in a perverse way part of what more regulation would do for somebody like meta is it would keep the newer competitors and crowd them out
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