저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 도미노피자(DPZ)를 대규모로 매수했으며, 자체 배달 인프라와 프랜차이즈 구조를 높게 평가해 장기 투자 관점을 유지한다. 투자 배경: 스타벅스는 주가가 빠르게 회복해 초과수익을 내기 어려워졌고, 같은 시기 도미노피자 주가가 이유 없이 급락해 스타벅스 지분을 도미노피자로 교체했다. 지분율은 약 6% 미만이다. 사업 경쟁력: 도미노는 순수 프랜차이즈 기업이며 자체 배달 인프라를 보유해 도어대시·우버이츠 같은 외부 배달 플랫폼 수수료 부담이 없다. 기술 선도, 우수한 자본 배분 등을 장점으로 꼽았다. 매수 가격: 주당 약 330달러 부근에서 매수를 시작했으며 이후 주가가 크게 올랐다. ESG·성장성: 많은 가맹점주가 배달 기사에서 출발했고 점포 수익률이 높아 자수성가 경로가 된다고 강조. 해외 성장 여지도 크다고 봤다. 노동시장: 실업급여와 부양책이 줄면 노동 공급이 늘어날 것이며, 현재 인력 부족은 경기 약화가 아닌 일시적 요인이라는 입장. 투자 의사결정: 지난 18년간 단순·예측 가능·현금창출력 높은 기업을 추적해 왔고, 주가 급락 시 팀이 분석을 재가동해 약 10~15일 만에 매수 결정을 내렸다. 다만 판단이 늦어 저점을 일부 놓쳤다고 언급. 리스크: 코로나 특수 소멸, 배달 경쟁 심화가 bear case로 거론됨. 전반적으로 낙관적이나 구체적 단기 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
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uh starbucks which is really an amazing business um largely because it got to a price it was hard to earn the kind of excess returns we like to earn over time you know kevin johnson's done an amazing job the team's done an amazing job it's really a great great uh business but the stock just recovered too quickly too fast to to and i think investors will do well with starbucks but for a very brief moment another restaurant company that we fought very closely over a long period of time dropped dramatically in price for reasons we didn't understand and we were able to swap starbucks for domino's pizza oh okay well that's being nice we didn't get as much as we would like but we own a little under six percent of the company okay and that's been a standout in the pandemic right i mean can you talk a little bit about what else you've liked about domino's so one obviously we like the restaurant industry um you know interestingly we've never lost money in investing in a restaurant company i think we've never not made a lot of money and just to remind people you own burger king's holding company and also chipotle yeah so it's a it's it's a space in history we know we like uh domino's is a pure franchising company and interestingly you know they were really first and best in certain technology and delivery and they they own their own delivery infrastructure so they don't need to rely on the door dashes and uber eats in the world and that is actually an important competitive advantage in a world where you want to deliver you can deliver pizza for 7.99 it's hard to do that with a delivery service taking you know massive massive uh cut of the proceeds so it's it's an extremely well-run company they've done an incredible job on everything about the way they run their business uh to the way they grow their business and to the way they you know allocate capital in their business so it's real stand out we admired it for years and we just it was always never cheap enough and then for for about five minutes it got cheap i don't know who sold or why but uh we started buying around 330 a share and then it very quickly uh moved up a lot but they've done a lot of interesting things with technology even ahead of the pandemic right in terms of streamlining the process and yes and it's it's actually a great if you will it's a great esg story if you know a lot of the franchisees today started out as drivers you know so it's a real path uh to you know grow in the company and and become a franchisee and own multiple units and returns to franchisees on stores extremely high and uh you can become a millionaire a 10 millionaire you know starting out as a driver for for domino so it's it's a very compelling story there's a you know big international growth opportunity which they've you know pursued and there's still plenty of room to run both here and abroad so i'm talking about those those drivers that who can who can grow in the company um i mean getting workers is an increasing problem for our restaurants and can you speak a little bit about um what you think about this debate about the unemployment benefits versus as as a as a factor here or not like what what do you think needs to change or not yeah the surprise numbers that came out i guess uh you know last week were are not due to any weakness in the economy the economy is crushing it okay you know businesses are um you know booming i would say you know the you know think about hospitality you can't get a reservation at a restaurant new york anymore except 5 30 or 10 right right and that's with excess capacity now that you know the restaurants are open i think we're almost fully open indoors and plus all the outdoor space i think restaurants are going to have a boom year and the result is that uh so there's huge demand for labor i think it's the largest i think yesterday there's a number the largest gap between you know job listings and and uh um you know the people uh who need i mean the point is there are plenty of jobs people haven't had to work partially because of the stimulus i think they're that has made it somewhat um i think when unemployment benefits step back and some of the stimulus wears off it will be more of a supply of supply dominoes it sounds like you're just very um happy to be a long a long investor there and it's not like a the contentious guns blazing bill ackman we've seen in some situations in the past and i don't have you had a an activist campaign i have no recollection of guns blazing well we talked about adp a few years ago i mean there were no guns blazing other than the part of the ceo of the company so in terms of businesses you do have interest in i have a question here from wayne anderman who says how does an investment idea percolate to the front of your mind uh what does the decision-making process look like and is it finalized by a consensus at persian square are you personally or how does it work can you give us a little insight into that mcdonald's is a good example i mean so over the last 18 years we've followed a meaningfully large number of companies and we're looking for businesses you know i call them simple predictable free cash regenerative uh dominant you know super durable growth companies and we tracked them and we uh what happened in the case of domino's is the business we followed the time and then for whatever reason the stock dropped significantly a couple members of the team kind of pulled out the file dug in got you know updated our numbers updated our model um looked into you know thought in the thought about the chain perhaps the change in dynamics with uh you know i think that the bear case on domino's i guess over the last couple months is that they were a beneficiary of coven and now no one's going to go gonna order people the pizza don't they're going out to restaurants they're not ordering pizza right as you said and i think that's and also that there's more competition right with delivery for any restaurant today there's you know you can order things on the pizza and ultimately our view was uh actually a lot of negative during the covenant environment there weren't you know football games where you invited over 12 of your buddies and ordered in dominoes it wasn't a lot of college campuses you know in session ordering and dominoes and you know our view is uh you know there will be continued uh growth in that business but that was kind of an assessment we did but typically it's in this case a two member part of the team led up updated their kind of research on the company presented to the rest of the team we discussed the idea and it was a consensus decision because we were all in favor of but uh you know we like having a balance between um you know two people do a huge amount of work uh i'll do i'll read you know 10ks conference call transcripts get updated on the story but we'll talk to let's say industry experts and then other members of the team were not actually involved in doing work on the idea but all of us have the same economic incentive we all own an interest in the in the profits of the of the firm and we're big investors in the funds that we that we manage so once the stock dropped how how long was it like was it just a few days or a few weeks or how quickly did you move at that point pretty quickly uh it took us um probably 10 10 to 15 days to kind of you know we were we start our approach is to put together a pretty detailed uh kind of powerpoint presentation to the team in this case uh we didn't focus on dotting eyes according to it was just plain obvious that we should start buying um but about 10 days for us to update our work and it wasn't fast enough because we did we did miss out on yeah though the market's been moving
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