저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 증시와 제약 섹터 바닥 가능성을 보며, 국내 개인 자금 유입이 거대한 흐름이 될 것이라고 낙관한다. 제약 섹터: 지난 2~3년간 외면받았으나 바닥을 형성했을 가능성이 있다고 본다. 미국 시장의 비관이 극단적이어서 긍정적이며, 루핀이 최대 보유 종목이다. 반등은 개별 기업 실적에 따라 달라진다고 강조. 환율·금리: 루피화 약세는 일시적 충격이었고 2분기 무렵 되돌아올 것으로 본다. 루피는 1달러 약 65에서 1675 수준을 거쳐 67까지 갈 수 있다고 언급. 미국 연준은 매우 완만하게 금리를 올릴 것이며 인도 거시경제는 어느 때보다 안정적이라고 평가. 금융·저축 테마: 금융화(financialization of savings) 테마를 강조하고 에델바이스, 지오젯 등을 보유. 사업은 확장되겠지만 밸류에이션은 부담이라고 인정. 국내 자금 유입: 인도 가계 자산 중 주식 비중이 낮아(중국 9%, 미국 29% 대비) 국내 자금의 유입이 쓰나미급이 될 것으로 전망. 명목 GDP 12% 성장 가정, 2년 이상 장기 관점. 글로벌 자금 흐름: 외국인 매도는 미국 금리와 글로벌 금리에 달려 있으며, 시장이 계속 오르면 매도자는 이탈하고 하락하면 매수자가 이탈한다는 논리. 매도세는 이미 완화되었고 한 달 내 반전될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
it's customary every Diwali for me to speak to Rakesh Union wala India's most loved investors so here I am again to talk about how the last 1 year has been Rakesh good to speak to you as always and wish you and your family are very happy Diwali first I remember last Diwali when I was talking to you you'd sounded a little disappointed with the performance of your portfolio but one or two stocks had not done very well and you said it was a challenge for you to bounce back this year so how of the last 12 months been since last Diwali are you happier this time then you were at the same time last year anyway I wish I believed Ali to you and to everybody else well as far as my portfolio is concerned all I can say it's at the Diwali it's financially happy Diwali for me here has been good I would like to comment beyond that it's kind of a fact that live in Crystal I'm not done I know the lupins been a bit of a sore thing for the last couple of years but you know it's been almost 2 or 3 years that the pharmaceutical sector has been out of favor for the market do you get the sense Rakesh that now with so much pessimism around the sector we might be at the darkest hour and maybe the sector is slowly forming a bottom out here see I wouldn't like to I think be effective it could be near a bottom we already made a bottom well I think the rebound will depend script eyes see everything that could go wrong also pharma industry when did the same thing the US market got very competitive so rupee got depreciated and they had very bad sales domestically because of the last year no the first quarter we Jesus so I this I would say the worst is behind us the rebound will depend a lot on the companies only individual but what what is telling you that the worst may be behind is it the price performance of the stocks which is trying to showing you some sense of a bottom or any of these factors that you alluded to just now do you think they have started reversing I think the US market pricing has made a bottom I've never seen such fright and such recognition there the US market will always is not going to be good I mean Amazon is going to you is going to say sell medicines people are so bearish I think is very positive those Indian Power will have one more buyer he sort of there have been three buyers in genrich's there'll be one more buyer the motor bias the better it is so just below Amazon is going to do something doesn't mean prices are going to crash second thing I think is that these rates lot of companies will drop out for investment into genrich's and the real money show made in complex genetics now for which very few companies have some money and the capability so I possibly think rising in USS peaked I think the rupiah stopped I mean I think of ways to be active say see around 65 now he said gone to 1675 I think rupee we go to 67 and the local market it was just a temporary disruption it had to come back I think we attached in the second quarter so I think the causes have to have reversed there is a fair amount of criticism and there is too much pressure is about the US general market and all pricing there but how do you go about choosing stocks in the sector a Koosh because it C appears to be that even if Pharma bottoms out as a sector it will still be probably a stock specific kind of a play not an IT sector kind of a vanilla play I know you've got holding Lupin is your biggest holding but you also have exposure to names like Aurobindo Pharma and turbulent life sciences how do you go about cherry-picking in a sector where but the dynamics can be very disparate between companies I think people look who have very large business in India are going to do well regardless what happens in America in America those women go to complexions and digs over a good pipeline who the search costs are not very high I didn't they'll do very well see longer-term India is like FMV market for medicines it's going to grow it for people over here and I think the rupee is also you know topped now individual companies I mean I would like to discuss them you have to have your own way of skirt of choosing them and let me make a disclosure I own all the three shades that you have told me that you've just said and I'm interested in everything that I see in this program please consult the other theme rockets that you're very bullish on obviously from look at your portfolio is the whole financialization of savings theme I mean you own names like Edelweiss and geo jet these stocks have done remarkably well in the last one year but do you think they are good for much more I mean this whole theme do you think it will expand even more exponentially from here I don't know the price will expand or not but the business will expand that I know and they I would like to come down when liberal stocks but you know the story of the financial savings you know getting user and user in large part of these savings in the household sector being investing liquidating it just started so from that point of view but I agree with you that valuations are not easy so solve it I will price then also what's the best way to play this Rakesh according to you I mean is it through brokerages is it through insurance companies is it through private banks who have got a leg in many of these pieces I mean what's the best way to approach a theme which is fleshing out so nicely take your choice I know I haven't done any research and you know then I'd like to speak more of a general market they know what financial in sectors and specific investments and all that the reason I ask you Rakesh this question is because a significant part of how well the market has done is dependent on this kind of money which is coming in from domestic investors do you see that as a secular theme and being such a continued source of support for our market going forward see was i have any shouting that Indian money into those markets is going to come it's going to be a flood it's going to be a tsunami I think it's not even reached a flood because to my common sense in a growing economy like India you know with these daily good corporate governments practices tax-free you know it's you know I think India will grow nominal GDP 12 percent I see no way that in an annuity will not even return of a people set now you tell me one investment they can sit in my office have a liquid investment borrow considered verified rates and you know fifteen percent return I don't say many Englishman about you like that so I might share common sense and I feel that this money is going to continue and I think this is not even a flood it's going to be a flood and it's going to be a tsunami because first you know in America new investment in mutual funds in equity which will fund went up from hundred sixty two billion dollars in 1984-85 to 1.3 trillion dollars in in 94 95 so once this starts and people gain there is a they can always be upfront and you are living in a country with at least four hundred billion dollars household savings equity in an equity wealth household wealth in according India's for person in China its 9% and America it is 29% so I am been shouting for the last 25 years last 10-15 years but this is no I finally happened and I think this money is just this little less come there's going to be a flood is going to be tsunami so I see no way that Indians will not invest on a continuous basis in mutual funds earlier you know they're two times and also you a lot of the investment by Indians and mutual funds and equity has been delayed with all the two scams and I don't see any sign or smell of a scandal and how does this sit with the way global investors are viewing the Indian market right now because Indian investors seem to have just about getting into the habit of putting money through si piece into mutual funds but if we speak to global investors they seem less optimistic they are worried about valuations in India and periodically they're withdrawing money from the Indian equity markets how do you resolve these two and how do you see trends in global investment flows now I personally feel the selling metaphor another she's gonna depend on Lawson US interest rates and interest rates worldwide and there is a divided opinion in this head whether they should wait for inflation to compute two percent or they should increase the rates even if innovation doesn't come to two percent my statement says the Fed will raise but in a very very very very measured manner so once that is clear the interest rates in the US will not go up right and India has never had such a stable macro with the currency with inflation with the fiscal deficit so I think it's not it's not really far away that the us that the you know foreign money will stop and ever scoffs market there's a rule that if there is a seller whoever he may be and the market keeps gaining that seller does withdraw and has to be and if the market keeps losing and there is a buyer who keeps buying he will have to withdraw I wanna share with our economy this can take a base name I look what Labor Day only name one liquid so as in face of the continuous rise of the market right and nobody was interested i personally of the opinion that it is the selling is already moderated and I think it will reverse in a month you
Comments 0