저자: DanDeming · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 실적 발표(장 마감 후)를 앞두고 AI 매출 기대치는 높지만 마진 리스크와 최근 약세가 부담. 기대치 충족만으로 하락 추세 반전은 어려울 수 있음. 데밍은 시장 센티먼트 개선과 단기 바닥 신호를 언급하며, 실적 후 상승 여지를 보고 4월 320/360 콜스프레드 매수 + 290 풋 매도 전략 제시. 300 부근 하락 시 주식 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
We're back on Morning Trade Live. Let's focus on Broadcom. The chip company reports earnings after the close. More on that with Marley in a second, but the stock is down nearly 7% so far here in 2026 and shares are down more than 20% from early December's all-time high. So, that's the focus of the Morning Trade.
Joining us for a closer look is Marley Kaidan. So, just talk us through what the expectations are for Broadcom. Obviously, pulling back with the rest of the chip space, but I guess we can probably expect a pretty good report given what we've heard from the likes of AMD and Nvidia. Just talk us through the setup here.
Uh the setup here is much like you expressed. They're expecting a strong report here from Broadcom. The expectation is for EPS to be about 27% higher year-over-year, coming in at about $2.03. Revenue expected to be up 29% year-over-year at $19.29 billion with AI-related sales expected to nearly double to 8.2 billion.
So, the bar is high, but from what we've seen this earnings quarter, that doesn't necessarily mean that surpassing that high bar could be enough to reverse that that month-long slump that you've been talking about. You know, like you mentioned, we're more than 20% off of the December record, well underperforming the S&P 500 here.
Even with the expectations high for a beat here. Now, the sell-off, of course, a part of this broader rotation in tech away from these large tech companies with fears of the sustainability of this massive CapEx spend on these AI capabilities. Broadcom obviously caught up in that. For their previous quarter, shares got pounded after they reported their earnings in December.
They fell 11% for their worst performance in nearly a year. And the issue was not in the top or the bottom line. It was the backlog of $73 billion on AI product orders over the next six quarters that fell just slightly short of expectations. So, investors will definitely want an update on that, as well as any developments that it's building on its TPU chips for Google.
Those orders are expected to ramp up in the second half of this year, so could be instrumental in the numbers here. Also, the deal with OpenAI should contribute to expansion in 2027, so any details there will be in focus. Another issue in that previous earnings report was the profit margins. So, that will definitely be in focus as well.
Hock Tan said the AI sales were weighing on that figure. Uh their gross margin is expected to be about 77% in the fiscal first quarter. That would be down from 78% in the previous quarter and 79% a year ago. So, that's another potential catalyst to the downside if that misses. Uh they'll also likely have questions around the software business, accounted for about 42% of the revenue in 2025.
Um and it used to be seen as a way to balance the cyclical nature of semiconductor sales, which obviously is in focus this year, but that sell-off in software names has really put some pressure on the stock. So, the analyst notes I read said them emphasizing deep moats is going to be really important here.
Uh but one thing it did accomplish with the sell-off is that shares are cheaper. They uh a couple analysts say they still have some more room to fall, but they now trade around 27 times forward earnings, which is down from their peak of 42 in December. So, it's an interesting setup for Broadcom. The expectations are high, but Sam, we've seen even with Nvidia high expectations not always necessarily met, even if you meet them or exceed them with a positive reaction in the markets.
Yeah, and as we've seen with a lot of these companies, it's not just so much about the numbers, it's the narrative, as you say. I mean, I think there's going to be a lot of attention on what Hock Tan has to say. I mean, it's the AI growth story versus the margin risk, as you point out. So, really interesting setup, but particularly with those compressed evaluations that we've seen as well, no doubt.
Looking relatively cheaper when you put it into perspective. But Mandeep, thanks so much for the breakdown and the setup for us. Let's trade this name now with Dan Deming, managing partner at KKM Financial. Dan, interesting name given the space and obviously uh some of the uh moving parts around chips at at moment.
Just talk us through an example trade for Broadcom. Yeah, Sam. I think, you know, as Molly pointed out, the sentiment in the market. I think the sentiment has shifted uh to some degree as we've worked our way through this earnings announcements based on the reaction that we have seen some of these stocks.
So, possibly, you know, Broadcom could meet or exceed their uh expectations and still fall at that have but I overall, I think that we are seeing a little bit of a leveling of the playing field as far as those expectations. So, in the trade example today, it's to capture a potential show move higher post earnings uh with uh a call spread buy in the trade example.
So, buying an April call spread, but then selling an April way out of the money put to finance a big chunk of the cost of that call spread to be able to capture the entire up move and still have the opportunity to get put in a stock at a lower level. So, it's the April 320 360 call spread, buying that and then selling the April 290 put.
Again, uh at 315, this was about even money to a little bit of a credit. Now, we're up a couple percent, so probably a debit, slight debit, but nonetheless, the idea here is to be able to have the ability to capture further upside if we do see a move higher post earnings, but if there is some further weakness, then if we go down and test that 300 level or just below, uh that's a level I think it even comes more compelling longer term to own the stock.
So, if we get down there, then this uh trade example allows you to get put in the stock at a much better level. Okay, we'll be watching. Let's see what they say this afternoon. As for these markets, Dan, I mean, we've seen the VIX, the dollar, and oil coming off and stocks stabilizing. Uh I just big question as to how long it lasts.
Just talk us through your thoughts this morning. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you were getting that relief rally. You know, I mean, the the fact that we came off those lows, Sam, last uh yesterday, I should say, so significantly, even though we were still down on the day, it did uh at least short term, I think, indicate that we've got a short term bottom in place.
And now, we're kind of building off of some of the data points that are coming out, and uh continue to we'll have that on follow the next couple of days but the manufacturing data. So yeah, I you're seeing a resurgence in certain areas particularly uh the big names. As tech is leading this rally today in the small caps as well.
I think you know, we did see a bit of a selling uh climax yesterday early in the morning. Uh the algos kind of pushed it down to uh levels where there were some buyers and now we're going to see how much of the buying pressure persists over the next couple days but I think this is a good first step for the market finding some stability and the leadership is coming back into the market and I think that is another factor that possibly could contribute to why I think Broadcom may move higher post earnings.
Right. Yes, stability is the keyword. It's just whether this is resiliency or complacency I think is the real debate out there. Dan always appreciate it. Thanks so much for that Dan Deming there, managing partner KKM Financial. Appreciate it. We'll
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