Analysts Raise NVDA Price Targets, Stock Falls After Earnings

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엔비디아 실적은 EPS $1.62(컨센 $1.53), 매출 681억 달러(컨센 662억), 데이터센터 매출 623억 달러로 호실적이나 밸류에이션 부담으로 주가 하락. 다수 증권사 목표가 상향(웨드부시·번스타인·BofA·씨티 300달러). Joe Tega는 분기 실적은 좋지만 주가는 보상받지 못했다며 횡보 후 변동성 확대를 예상하고 3월 만기 콜 스프레드(200/220) 활용을 제시.

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01. Analysts Raise NVDA Price Targets, Stock Falls After Earnings

02. We're back on Morning Trade Live. Let's focus on semiconductors. Here's where the major players in that space are trading this morning after Nvidia reported earnings after the close on Wednesday. There is one clear direction they are heading in, and some pretty heavy selling pressure here.

03. Intel is down 4.7%, Broadcom is down almost 7%, AMD is down 4%, and Nvidia continues to lose altitude throughout the morning session. An hour into trading, we are down almost 5% on that name at $186.18 on the chip darling following its report. So that's the focus of the morning trade.

04. For a closer look, Molly Kagan joins us now. Very good morning to you, Molly. Obviously, we've seen the Street's reaction coming from investors. We've run through the technical picture here with KG and Nate Peterson, but talk us through what the sell side is saying.

05. Sure, Sam, good morning to you. The sell side still sees positive growth here. They're really impressed with the numbers we got, and really impressed with the guidance, despite this move to the downside. Just a quick reminder on some of the numbers: earnings per share came in at $1.62, better than the $1.53 expected. Revenue was $68.13 billion, better than the $66.21 billion expected. Total revenue was up 73% year over year. The company now gets 91% of its sales from its data center unit, and data center revenue climbed 75% from a year earlier to $62.3 billion.

06. Guidance was better than expected too. Revenue for the fiscal first quarter is forecast at $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. Analysts were looking for $72.6 billion. China is not included in that forecast, so there's only potential upside from there.

07. As for the response, you're going to hear me cite some of these notes. Wedbush raised its price target to $300 from $230 and is keeping its outperform rating. Right now we're trading at about $185. Wedbush said that while the Q4 acceleration in data center sales was impressive given the law of large numbers, the Q1 sales guidance in particular was the highlight of the call, because Wedbush believes the outlook was well in excess of prior buy-side expectations.

08. At Rosenblatt, they also have a new $300 price target and keep their buy rating. They said Nvidia has overcome many concerns, including GPU capacity, tensor processing unit capacity, memory supply, and customer financing, and that they see the company continuing to lead in AI market development.

09. So $300 really is the number today. Bernstein is also up to $300, keeping its outperform rating, citing data center results well above expectations on Blackwell momentum. BofA is also up to $300 with a buy rating, saying the company "more than delivered." They note supply commitments are up more than three times year over year to $95 billion, ensuring Nvidia may well be the most dependable supplier able to serve the AI market, which they believe could double toward $1.4 trillion in the next four years.

10. Citi also raised to $300 with a buy rating. They think the GPU technology conference, GTC, in mid-March will be positive for shares. J.P. Morgan went up to $265 from $250, keeping an overweight rating. They said better-than-expected revenue allowed them to raise their estimates, and they think any concerns over the company's 2027 growth outlook are likely overblown. And the last one, Morgan Stanley, is up to $260 from $250 on what they called another very strong quarter.

11. So, all bulls there, Sam. Nothing but praise from the Dan Ives and Rosenblatt camps, and it's just not being reflected in the stock. Perhaps something more technical is at play with this pullback.

12. Molly, thanks so much for walking us through what the sell side is saying today. Let's trade it now with Joe Tega, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund. Joe, Nvidia just continues to lose steam here, down 5.4% right now. Talk us through an example trade on this one.

13. Yeah, what an interesting move. It's one of the best quarters you'd ever see from a company, and it's just getting hammered. This is coming off the heels of being close to record highs. The all-time high is $212, I think reached late last year, but it's absolutely a great quarter. And there are a lot of other companies that had great quarters which weren't necessarily rewarded this cycle.

14. So some volatility is coming in, and the price is coming in. Looking at upside calls, especially call spreads, seems very prudent to me. I think it's good that the market is rotating back and forth. Some of the harder-hit areas, like the software names, are doing comparatively better today than the growth and semiconductor names. It's interesting to see that even though the semiconductors are proving their pudding with fantastic earnings, they're not necessarily being rewarded in price. I think that'll return to form as long as we can keep climbing this wall of worry, which we will if things stabilize and the economy remains stable.

15. So looking at an upside call spread, very simply, for the month of March, 200 and 220 would be my strikes. A little while ago the price was close to $330, probably a little lower now as Nvidia keeps drifting lower through the trading day. Yeah, we're seeing the technology sector under pressure, and there's a degree of rotation there. The software names aren't getting pulled down. But to your mind, is this an Nvidia story or a broader chip story, a sort of AI valuation, show-me-the-money story?

16. It's definitely a valuation story, absolutely right. It's not about the earnings, because the earnings were there. They were everything the Street could have looked for, hoped for, dreamed of. The Nvidia report delivered that. The market is just saying, "We're not going to keep paying this high a multiple. We're going to let you grow into that multiple, which Nvidia is doing." We've seen about four months of sideways action in the S&P 500, and we're starting to coil up here. It seems like something is getting ready to break. We'll be looking for a move soon, and hopefully it's to the upside, but we'll be ready if it's to the downside too.

17. Okay, we'll be watching. The S&P 500 is at 6,874 right now, down around 1%. Joe, really appreciate it. Thanks so much for joining us today. Joe Tega, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund.