저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준(FOMC) 기자회견 직후 해설. 점도표 중간값 변화는 없었으나 장기금리 전망이 2.5→2.6%로 상향, GDP 전망 상향. 파월이 금리 유지 기간 연장 시사, 인플레 진전은 지연 가능. QT 감속은 2분기 시작 가능, 인하는 연말 가능성. 발표자는 이를 금리민감주에 불리, 빅테크·현금부자 기업에 유리하다고 해석. 행사·코스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
wow the Federal Reserve just tugged us in a location we were not expecting to get tugged in and I made a trade during this press conference well actually right before the press conference was it profitable I went into this fed day with no positions did have positions over the last few days I send out all my alerts to stocks and psych course members well during the right after the release of the information I ended up going short end phase after it ran all the way up to this 1133 line went short right about here rode it uh until we started moving back up obviously I wish I closed it at Rock Bottom I would have been up 10K but I closed it up about 6,500 bucks uh I have that trade confirmation uh right here so you could see the option that was traded uh and you can kind of match that up with the prices and you can see it so anyway let's get into the summary if you want all those alerts be a part of stocks and psych price goes up on Friday you get lifetime access to all trades forever and um course member live streams you don't even have to watch the course lectures if you don't want to although there's good content in there anyway now let's talk about the FED wow okay first we got to look at the statement because the different rugging that we got here was a little bit of a surprise uh I I certainly was surprised Bank of America nailed this segment right here Bank of America nailed the steady 46 and the 49 now keep in mind that is steady 46 on an uh on a median basis on an average basis this number went up if you jump on over to the Dot Plot right here and you see what's happening right here we calculated out roughly what we think actually that median projection or the average projection went to the average projection went to about 4.83 my prediction was we were going to go to 4.8 we're right on the average wrong on what's on the form the form calls for median oh well uh so it is interesting because you did see a move up but even though you saw a move up it wasn't enough to change the middle number the median number so that was a surprise that's surprise number one surprise number two was right here we suggested this could happen and it happened it happened but I didn't think it was going to happen this meeting because I thought we were going to revise this up and we weren't going to touch this yet but eventually we would well we touched it we went to uh 2.6 from 2.5 for the longer term rate what does that mean what makes this very simple folks in a recession you get interest rate sensitive stocks that can win why because rates go from high to low very quickly interest rate sensitive happy if you have a downward sloping curve interest rate sensitive stocks are mostly happy if you have a slower downward trending curve interest rate sensitive stocks are a little less happy and obviously as interest rates are going up interest rates s sensitive stocks are sad and of course the higher they go the more sad they are okay that should be pretty obvious very very simple see the difference in the lines okay you get it so what else did we find here this was a massive beat I did not think we were going to come in this high on GDP at all in fact if we go to my projection I thought we were going to be 16 1 18 1 n thought they were going to keep steady 2526 revised up 24 instead they revised up everything everything over 2% really impressive in my opinion this is good news both of these factors combined in my opinion is actually really good news for the market broadly chips big Tech uh big corporations cash-rich corporations this is a win for big companies this is a loss for the interest rate sensitive now we did excuse me we did maintain the three Cuts but jow told us roughly when he thinks by implying it with some statements first of he said that quote we are prepared to retain the current rate for longer and then later in the presser he decided to say hey we are in a position where we're trying to compare to last year's inflation data to make sure that we're actually making progress on inflation okay that's problematic why is that problematic I'm going to map this out for you okay this is really simple when are the next fed meetings well mark your calendar I'm about to tell you all right ready May 1 June 12 July 3 1 that's the beginning of Q3 right here this is Q2 okay market right now thinks we're going to get Cuts here I think the Market's wrong on that I'm going to show you why I think they're going to happen right before the election watch this sept November December okay that's Q4 right here so what do we have September September 18th means we're actually going to get the August data because the August CPI data will be out already uh November 7th that's right after the election which maybe they'll even wait until after the election although I don't think so so here's my take if we go three Cuts in order to lap the data I think if we go three Cuts what we're going to get is we're going to get 25 25 25 that adds up to three Cuts if we end up going two cuts okay two cuts the benefit of waiting until after the election will mean the FED will not look politicized 2525 what does this give the fed this gives the Federal Reserve the ability to lap the second half of the year with last year 2023 and then they'll be able to confirm the 12mon disinflationary trend so even though we're still showing that three rate cut trajectory I do do think it's going to be later especially since jpw told us today quote uh we are prepared to retain the current rate for longer it's worth noting that jpow was also about 15 seconds late that's only notable because he's like never late it's kind of like when I do the stock market open live stream every morning by the way at 5:25 totally for free on the meet Kevin live Channel we go live for like an hour and 20 minutes and we talk trades and and market news and stuff like and then we go into the course member live stream after that for about 30 40 50 minutes uh anyway I don't even know where I was going with that um whatever it doesn't matter okay so let's move on to I literally forgot what I was going to say there but that's okay uh so um getting into the rest of what J pal said we'll go there so uh quantitative tightening Jerome Powell when it comes to quantitative tightening is expecting to begin QT sooner it's going to begin oh po was late that's right I was going to make a joke that uh if somebody told you Kevin was one minute late to the market open live stream everybody would be like that's not news he's like late every day one minute you know Powell being late is news because it's different thank you for catching me up in the comments there appreciate that okay so regarding QT I think jpow is going to go for QT soon he says we're ready fairly soon that was his quote but why do I think that makes sense because this if they're not going to cut rates until the end of the year guess when you can go do QT go do QT now start QT here QT start uh so the reduction right the slowing of QT can begin in the second quarter so you slow qt in the second quarter and then you do the rate cuts at the end of the year okay that's a potential strategy I think that's probably right okay so uh three rate Cuts still on deck for the year however that longer term figure moved up Nick T immediately picked up on that and commented that that longer term rate going to 2.65 is really the progression of this upward drift that maybe rates will be higher and we won't go back to the levels we had previously Jerome Powell did also suggests that we probably won't be going back to the 0% we used to have or the low rates we used to have so that's sort of reiterating what we see here uh inflation is still too high says we've been averaging 265,000 job gains the economy is doing very strongly and we're going to slow the pace of QT fairly slow soon inflation data has come in a little higher but that was a separate matter because we're making good progress on inflation uh and uh really there's a good reason to believe that the January numbers even though they were quite High there's reason to believe they were seasonal seasonal uh and so he doesn't want to be completely dismissive of January but he does say hey let's just see how D the data evolves you know that could average out now uh February was also high but Jerome PA says not terribly high so he's actually doish he he didn't I thought he was going to come in with a tilt to the hawkish side we got a tilt to the doish side on PO woi here so good job on PO now uh higher high by the way one of the strategies we made this morning was if we had 4.6 uh or lower goong triple QQ uh or Tesla uh and uh and and trade out soon I I can actually show you this I just zoomed in on this really quick this was one of the things we talked about in the course member live stream this morning I forgot I had this but I had this up uh if sep at 4.6 or lower go long tqq or Tesla well if you went long tqq uh yeah look at that look at tqq tqqq that's your triple leverage St up as soon as we got that 4.6 even if you went long at that Peak you'd still be up uh so uh kind of interesting that's that's literally what we wrote down this morning how interesting all right so rate Cuts will de depend on incoming data we're looking for data to confirm the low readings right exactly okay let's keep going uh they're trying to lap 2023 with data uh that may mean no Cuts until October November December era that's my CA that's my argument right significant progress was made on inflation last year stronger inflation in the first half is usually what we see along with less strong inflation in the second half we don't know if this is a bump or something more though in the meantime the economy is strong all right let me clarify that when he says we don't know if this is a bump or something more it means we are waiting we are waiting waiting waiting uh the so so that's that's a big deal uh waiting is is basically in my opinion reiterating that we're probably going to end up being stuck waiting for September October November December for these rate cuts to really come in uh and bearing in mind that there are no meetings in October it's just September November December got it uh QT will start soon inflation wasn't caused by wages it was that was an interesting sort of comment that uh we're making progress on a g gradual reduction and wage increases but they were not the reason we saw High inflation was more supply chain issues and yes wages are playing catchup right now and uh that's it so congratulations uh that is JP's meeting done summer goes in for surgery in an hour so I have to say I'm pretty nervous I love baby summer uh I hope she does well if my camera would ever focus on baby summer here come on camera uh but anyway I don't even know what it's focusing on there we go now baby summer look at baby summer anyway uh so yeah bottom line this is good for the market it's good for the economy it's good for the big six I think interest ratees sensitive stocks are going to they're probably moving up because we saw the 46 I do think that heads up on the 26 is a red flag for the long term and I don't think anything fundamentally changes in terms of you know earnings for interest rate sensitives anytime soon so there's no interest in fundamentally changing my opinion on on how long these rates are going to stay high I think that indication that we're probably not going to get rate Cuts until the end of the year we don't even guarantee that we're going to get three especially since the average moved up and the longer term has moved up and Powell doesn't think we're going back to zero any time soon those sectors not too exciting for me so uh sticking with that based on what we're seeing with the latest data uh we are being data dependent so to speak uh we will be in uh right after the FED meeting in June on June 12th on June 21st to June 23rd remember we will be at uh the event in Vegas called the millionaire Symposium encourage you to be there buy your tickets because the prices are going to continuously go up we think the prices will be double by the time we get closer to the event we're getting ready to announce the venue location and more speakers it's going to be an amazing event Ben MAA is already going to be there Ross Gerber is going to be there uh I've got a bunch of other uh potentially startups innovation companies Innovation speakers crypto folks expecting to be there so it's going to be a really really cool event I want I want to throw a really good party so I'm very excited and I hope you join and get the VIP ticket as well make sure you really enjoy uh the VIP if you're interested in that I'll probably limit that to about 30% of the tickets so check that out as far as stocks and psych price goes up for the courses on Friday and uh thank you so much for being here really appreciate you all uh thank you if those of you who support supportive course members or or just Watchers even if you're not a course member I still love you so appreciate you being here
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