저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500 PE 21.6, 주가매출비율 사상 최고 등 밸류에이션 과열을 지적하고, 연준 월러의 금리인하 및 고용 약화 경고를 전함. 11/1 고용지표 예상치 하향, 엔비디아 밸류 과열·마이크로스트래티지 레버리지 상품 출시를 과열 신호로 봄. 시장이 노랜딩·AI·에너지 상승을 선반영 중이며 트럼프 당선 트레이드도 반영되는 듯하다고 봄. 본인은 여전히 약세 쪽(4/10)이며 가격 조정 시 채권 강세 가능성을 언급. 실제 매수 권유는 없고 장기적으로 AI·테슬라에 긍정적이라고 함.
다듬은 글
oh boy it's getting hot in here we just heard from the fed and we got some valuation numbers to talk about as well as what else is going on in this economy and what to expect in the coming weeks it is a doozy let's go through all of it uh first S&P 500 PE ratio is at 21.6 that's the highest we've seen since around the end of 2021 you know that last major runup we had before the substan IAL 30 to 40% sell down in 2022 the S&P 500 mag 7 sits over 27 with a PE ratio and the S&P 500 price to sales ratio just logged its highest ever figure at 2.87 times we've never seen a number higher than that on a price to sales valuation now part of that could be because frankly you get a lot of software service businesses that well let's just put it this way they don't take a lot to the bottom line of earnings but they still collect money in terms of sales it's kind of like micro strategy this morning briefly on the opening live stream and then more in detail in our course member live stream we went deep on micro strategy and we're like hm this company's losing money Handover fist on its services and its Book value is sitting at more than3 three times in terms of market cap what it actually has in book in Bitcoin net of debt in English Bitcoin dollar here at like 11 market cap here at like 40 and then use losing money to make up that $30 billion valuation differ okay uh anyway uh it seems like after that course member live stream the market actually started finally turning on micro strategy I don't have any shorts on it but I did see it go from uh positive to negative pretty rapidly uh in just the last uh few hours actually conveniently right after the course member live stream it seems like it just tanged but anyway we did also have Governor Waller come out with some numbers and this is uh setting up for a little bit of a doozy here Mr Waller from the Federal Reserve just warned that payrolls in part due to layoffs we're hearing about over at B which substantial right weaker companies issue layoffs first because their stock is already hammered stronger companies quiet layoff and then layoff in effect later than uh weaker companies this this makes sense Governor Waller sees payrolls at the beginning of November coming in 100,000 lower and even though the labor market right now at a snapshot is healthy it's important that we keep lowering rates and the direction is clear we're going to go down with rates that there's a long way to go between now and neutral which is probably somewhere between 3 and 3 and 1 12% per the FED lower in my opinion uh and he indicates the direction is clear the problem is how much is the labor market going to weaken and and this is obviously you I mean you already know this this is where I'm like um y'all flying really close to the Sun let's just put it that way uh this next Labor report that I'll read you out the you know prediction right now it comes out November 11th which is crazy to say but that's just a little bit more than 2 weeks away that means we'll be going through Halloween already in about 2 weeks and 3 days crazy so I got my little uh woke Halloween cup here what do you think about that look at that woke Halloween my friends mhm # notsponsored they can't afford it anyway uh November 1st change in non-farm payrolls expected to come down from 254,000 to 110,000 so that $100,000 drop is being picked up by markets uh now the or the 100,000 job drop there is being picked up by markets the question is will it come in even lower than that and how much are we going to revise that prior 254,000 report of course we also get a lot of earnings between now and then so we have to be cautious to not be too much of a bear here I mean after all hey you know things might be slowing like advertising demand at Google is slowing but they're still making money hand over over fist and yeah I know numbers might be a little weird like the bull case for NVIDIA is so high it's literally triggering hope and dream charts and the fact is the numbers are going off the chart let me translate that this is a fancy way of saying right now we're seeing the highest ratio of valuation at Nvidia that is not explained by its forward three years earnings projections that we have seen since September of 2000 translate it just one more time I feel like I'm kind of just like running it through the filter okay Nvidia damn expensive and it hasn't been this expensive since September of 2000 now I actually when I calculate it on a PEG ratio I don't see it as as horribly uh explosive so it depends on sort of what metrics you're looking at it from I think a lot of people are very enthused by nvidia's blackw chip and understandably so I mean there were originally concerns that Blackwell was being delayed uh and uh this was sitting around basically $110 $108 as a stock and now it's sitting at $139 so when you divide that you're up 275% wow uh since concerns about Blackwell and really you started Rising when Jensen went on Jim Kramer's show on CNBC and said oh demand is infinite there's there's no limit to the amount of demand demand is so huge for the Blackwell chips nobody knows Blackwell better than I do H I've heard that before uh and then the stock traded sideways and down for the next three years but what is really interesting is I've been reading this uh and this is not not sponsored here but I I've been reading this and I found it very interesting because to me uh this book is kind of given me a little bit of um how should I put it uh perspective uh I really enjoy it The Art of War a lot of people have been recommending that I read it probably because some people have heard uh you know how I you know internalize things or look at life and uh one of the things that I just came out of it was this idea that if you are true to yourself you will win battles and you will lose battles but if you don't know what your truth is you will always lose and I thought that was really interesting because honestly I feel kind of lonely I've been a bull since like November of 2022 and I'm like Nike Swoosh volatile Nike Swoosh we're going up up up up we're going to the Moon baby and I've been so excited to be a part of that runup but but since like July I've turned a little bearish and it's very very lonely now I recognize that comes across as like okay well maybe that's just like you're losing battle period of time but I like I haven't changed my mind I haven't changed my opinion since July people know this people who watch the channel they know this and every single day I'm like okay like is this good or bad or how you know where does this fit in does this make me more bullish more bearish uh and this was a really interesting uh quote so in honor of that and there's no pressure but you know you want my analysis or whatever on like oh look Celsius is really expensive and then it drops uh what 50% in value it's crazy after a course member analysis plummets in value after our course member analysis on McDonald's a few months ago the sucker up like 20% it's amazing also invested McDonald's but uh I know it's kind of crazy to hear right but yeah I mean we saw Celsius pricing power going down and McDonald's pricing power go up and wow surprise surprise McDonald is doing really well but uh in honor of this book again not sponsored here but we made a uh coupon code called Art of War that you could use on the courses we haven't actually had a sale in like what feels like a week or two certainly at least one week so if you want to check those out over at meetkevin.com and be part of all the course member live streams and the entire archive going back to what 2017 or 18 or something like that go to me kevin.com but anyway I do want to just sort of add my opinion here I do think that the market is trading on borrow time with where these S&P 500 and NASDAQ uh valuations are uh I do recognize because you know I was one of the the earliest people to S Suggest this I do recognize that if you take the NASDAQ and you take the prior all-time highs uh which would be right here about 404 if you just sort of look at it this way right uh and then what you do is you add in inflation so you basically multiply it by you know maybe 28% you get to about 517 which gives you like maybe another four or 5% upside from here just in inflation adjusting now usually earnings should be catching up with that and they're not they're not keeping up with the same pace of inflation because earnings are getting squeezed and that's what makes the market feel expensive earning should be catching up faster but they're not because companies are losing their pricing power there are very few companies with really good pricing power right now everybody's really struggling and even though McDonald's has shown signs of increasing pricing power it's still a little floppy I mean it's still a little you know it leaves something to be desired okay it's like is is this working or not anyway what I sort of have believed and I watched for this every day is are are we really flying with a gas tank that's still pretty full to where we could price in a no Landing or are we flying on Vapors like we're out of gas and it's just sort of like the vapors that are left in the engine that are burning or in the tank uh and and it's really hard to know what's going on because the engine's starting to sputter in some places and you know the seats on the plane are starting to Rattle a little bit and it's kind of like okay it's like do they just kind of need to hit the thrust and go oh okay it feels a whole lot better or or you know are we going down nobody really knows but what seems to be based on where evaluations are it seems like we are pricing in the usual postelection upside and we're pricing in artificial intelligence fully we're pricing in energy upside fully for artificial intelligence nuclear energy is getting priced in as well uh and even though we're seeing earnings projections for this next quarter coming up here get revised down we think we're going to beat those handsomely so you know you kind of look at the market and you go Okay cool so like you're kind of not pricing in a recession you're pricing in a no Landing you're pricing in AI keep growing forever and energy upside keeps going up forever where's the downside prot protetion and so I was studying this a little bit and we actually are starting to see downside protection finally start Rising again it's one of the reasons why despite stocks going up we've actually over the past few days seen the volatility index move up uh this is pretty rare if you look at the vix uh you'll find the bottom was around uh September 27th and then again the second week of August but the volatility index has risen throughout really the end of September and first week of October and people are like why is volatility going up stocks are just going straight up it's that hedging that's starting to come into the market now some people say that another thing that we're seeing right now is a little bit more of a pricing in of Donald Trump potentially winning Bitcoin for examply examply wow I just made that one up Bitcoin for example might actually be moving up for this idea that markets are pricing in some more Donald Trump now uh you're not going to find that on the average of polls though a lot of people just say the polls don't matter they skew uh Democratic in terms of a survey participation uh I I don't know why that changed over here when Trump was leading for all these polls but whatever another thing people do is they say well you know Trump's now leading and these polls haven't shown it yet because of the government's lackluster hurricane response you go to the Electoral College map and we've still got a lot of these swing States up in the air Georgia North Carolina Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota uh you know you've got Nevada and Arizona over here so still TBD on some of these uh but uh we'll see where those end up and then if you look at the betting markets you actually see Trump at 53 and poly Market taking the lead at about 55 to 45 volume of these and you click on let's say Donald Trump uh the top 10 holders of votes Pro Donald Trump make up about $34 million in bets like this one Freddy guy has like 14.6 million uh and you only have about 19 million in bets on Harris and we started seeing volume explode for these sort of bets right like the two days after Elon Musk met Donald Trump on stage there we go uh right here he met him on stage on the sixth and then like right when the news cycle starts on the 8th volume spikes and it stays elevated now that's either elevated we're getting close to the election or who knows maybe somebody is trying to rig these markets by buying up the order book cuz really these predicted markets yes people put their money on it but it'd be really smart for these you know super packs or whatever to just throw money at this because the mainstream news covers this stuff daily and if you just buy out the order book uh you know you you pretty much always be in the lead uh anyway so keep that in mind when it comes to some of these polls but I I do think you're getting some Trump pricing right now uh and and what's interesting is I think this cycle rather than having election uncertainty in September and October before the election we actually might have it after now I know that sounds crazy because usually you have less uncertainty after but I think everybody has sort of been brainwashed and I'm partially responsible for it uh to think that the market goes up after an election well now the Market's skyrocketing like crazy before the election I'm like okay does everybody know the Market's going to go up after the election so now everybody's buying before which means how many buyers are left left after the election if everybody's expecting the same thing so it is really interesting what what are people pricing in you know wall Street's now offering a 1.75x leverage product on micro strategy which is basically already three times uh the market cap of its underlying Bitcoin it's basically already 3x leveraged uh and so now you have more leverage coming through this this leveraged ETF which is wild I mean it's down a chunk right now you know if you want to buy the dip or look at it it's mstx but uh to me it just sort of Screams that the market is pricing in no landing and uh it feels like Wall Street greed is coming out going okay cool what products can we sell people to get them to you know speculate more on on basically an order book of euphoria and I hate to say it but Micro strategy is an order book of euphoria it probably won't fundamentally last in fact I would be very concerned with a micro as a micro strategy investor I'd be very very concerned with how wide we've gotten with the spread and again I have I have no position on micro strategy it doesn't matter to me if it goes up or down I'm just trying to provide a service here but year to date this suckers up like 200% which don't get me wrong congratulations it's freaking amazing I'm just saying like maybe tax loss Harvest something else and take some profits here and just diversify a little bit you know just take off the tip not personalized advice but just think about this from the POV of just logic okay why why is it outpaced Bitcoin on a rate of 4 to1 I don't want that downside to hit like what if Bitcoin sells down 20% because we go into a recession or like 50% and then this is down like 90% I I you know let's just put it this way I wouldn't be buying it at this point I'd certainly be thinking about profit taking but then again who knows you know maybe it goes to 250 or whatever and that's uh that's a stupid thing to suggest so I think that's where a lot of people will say oh I'll just take like my investment off the table and then let the rest run so I'm playing with The house's money fine uh so find that interesting now uh I do think that uh analyzing pricing power stocks has gotten a little challenging because so few companies truly have pricing power right now it's sort of like you're just picking amongst the worst uh and bonds are probably getting close to a bottom here it's still remarkable and blows my mind that yields could go up 50 60 basis points on uh this this you know recent data that we've gotten after the FED Cuts 50 while the oil Market is screaming things are slowing down China's exports are slowing down you've got the quits rate falling you've got the job openings rate falling you've now got layoffs at some of the weak companies getting revi like pushed out on top of that you have hurricane related layoffs that are going to show up in the October numbers they might even start showing up and continuing claims this Thursday and then of course November 1st and the reality is the last Labor Market data we looked at was total bull crap I you know that uh like and I'm not I'm not trying to sound Jaden on the data but let's be real you had 785,000 government workers added and you lost over 253,000 private workers so in other words if this is zero the government's like we got lots of jobs and the private sector's like we lost some jobs and then you average it together like oh the unemployment rate went down that's nuts and that doesn't even count teachers going back to school it's just somehow I guess governments hired another 785,000 people seasonally adjusted not seasonally adjusted was closer to 1.4 million which is just absolutely nuts but that's okay that's okay I I'm just going to continue to let you know on a regular basis where I stand and I'm sorry I'm still on like a four on the bare bull scale you know which which has me looking at these numbers and being somewhat uninterested you know I am kind of interested in the end phase dip that we've seen it's trading at 101 right now but the problem is you know part of the reason it's trading down is because people are pricing in Trump so you got that whole election trade going on and if that happens at the same time uh as uh you know potentially a market slowdown in bad jobs yikes it's possible honestly the way to play this would be see how bad the jobs report is November 1st and then decide how how much of your cash you want to deploy into the stocks or uh you know if a market crash starts then although I am going on vacation next week so get your puts uh I'll be gone uh you know Friday midday probably after the market closes so uh you still have time this week but anyway uh you know th this this to me is very reminiscent of 2021 it's a market that feels euphoric uh except in 2021 we were printing money and we were expanding employment today we're tightening and we're not expanding so I recognize this is unpopular you know nobody likes a b you know a bear uh everybody wants to be a bull even in bad times everybody likes the Bulls I just i' I'm always going to come to you with my most realistic opinions and when I see research that makes me nervous I'll tell you about it if there are things I'm excited about I'll tell you about it and look I I honestly I'm I I am excited about AI long term I really am I am excited about Tesla long term I'm excited about so much long term I'm I've been like killing it in terms of uh the work over at house act that I'm putting in that the team's putting in everybody's killing it really uh there there's so many things long run I'm excited about I just um don't feel good encouraging buying these prices right now maybe that'll change when some of this data clears and if the data clears and it's all good yeah you know the buying cost might be even higher than it is now but I just know the psychology of what happens when the market starts falling is really nasty so you peek out the market starts falling and people are like I'm still up a lot I'm still up a lot I'm still up a lot okay I'm Break Even okay I'm only down a little okay I'm well at this point I may as well just huddle and then eventually get to this sort of capitulation state which uh you know I think as we as we Trend towards that bonds will Skyrocket in value yields will plummet uh and we'll actually be trying to pull our Market out of deflation much like China is although prices are still declining at the fastest Pace that we've seen since the 990s in China and for the longest period of time so even with their well I mean it's probably too early for the stimulus to really hit other than the uh you know super or other than the what am I trying to say uh the stock market we'll see we'll see so um anyway that's my take I hope this is useful do check out that coupon code link down below Art of War I think it's really really cool Art of War is the uh I would love to see you there thanks so much and we'll talk to hack.com
Comments 0