저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 시장 예측에 시간 낭비하지 말고 기업 분석 기반으로 주식을 카테고리별로 나눠 접근하라. [시장 예측과 하락장] 경제 뉴스·금리·전쟁·선거 등으로 시장은 흔들리며 예측은 불가능하다. 과거 95년간 이번 세기 기준 50번의 10% 이상 하락, 그중 15번은 25% 이상 하락했다. 대략 2년에 한 번 시장이 떨어지고, 6년에 한 번은 25% 하락한다. [1990년 사례] 걸프전·은행 위기로 시장이 3,000선에서 20% 이상 하락했으나 이는 우량 기업을 좋은 가격에 살 기회였다. 가격과 기업 실적이 분리되는 시점에 매수 기회가 생긴다. [기업 분석 원칙] 주식 뒤에는 기업이 있으며, 기업이 장기적으로 잘 성장하면 주가도 잘 간다. ADP는 35년간 매 분기 두 자릿수 이익 성장을 기록했고 정치·전쟁 등과 무관하게 성장했다. 패니메이는 1990년 7~10월 S&P500이 21% 하락할 때 약 42달러에서 26달러로 떨어졌으나 실적은 증가 중이었고 좋은 매수 기회였다. [카테고리 분류] 3,000여 개 뉴욕증시 종목과 13,000여 개 공개기업을 모두 분석하기는 어려우므로 카테고리로 나눈다. 다섯 가지: 고성장주, 저성장주, 경기순환주, 자산주, 턴어라운드주. 카테고리는 가이드일 뿐 고정 규칙이 아니며 기업은 생애주기에 따라 카테고리를 바꾼다. [매도 공식에 대한 경고] '두 배면 팔아라', '10% 하락하면 팔아라' 같은 일반 공식은 어리석다. [고성장주] 연 25% 성장하면 이익은 3년에 두 배, 6년에 네 배, 9년에 여덟 배가 된다. 빠르게 성장하는 산업 또는 저성장 산업 내 고성장 기업을 찾는다. 두 번째나 세 번째 이닝(초기)에 사는 것이 좋다. 맥도날드·마이크로소프트 사례 언급. [저성장주] 연 3~15% 성장하는 기업도 적정 가격이면 좋은 투자다. 연 5만 달러 이익 기업을 10만 달러에 사는 예시(PER 2배). Service Corp International은 장례 사업으로 안정적으로 연 15% 성장. [경기순환주] 경기 호황에 이익이 크게 늘고 불황에 급감한다. 경기 저점 근처 매수가 아니라 실적이 회복되는 확증을 기다려야 한다. 현금흐름이 좋고 부채가 적은 강한 회사를 골라야 한다. 크라이슬러 1990년 사례(주당 10달러, 미니밴·지프 성공). [턴어라운드주] 실적 회복을 이끌 구체적 요인이 있는지 확인하고, 향후 12~24개월 현금과 부채 상환 능력을 점검한다. 희망이 아니라 실제 회복 증거를 기다린다. S.S. Kresge(K마트) 50배 상승 사례. [기타] 작은 기업은 같은 금액 대비 성장 여지가 크다. 대기업도 혁신으로 성장할 수 있다. [출연자 전망] 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 장기 관점의 기업 투자 원칙만 제시.
다듬은 글
actual bad economic news rising interest rates wars elections any of these can push the market down if you're one of those people that pour over graphs economic statistics or astrology charts trying to figure out what the stock market is going to do next you are wasting your time no one can predict the market you have to understand the market goes down there's been 95 years this century we've had 50 declines of over 10 of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 percent more so about once every two years the market falls 10 about once every six years it falls 25 percent these are big drops you have to understand that that's the nature of the market in 1990 saddam hussein went into kuwait the banking system was in trouble we had a recession he had all his background noise lots of good companies had nothing to do with wars nothing to do with banking they all went down in 1990 the market fell from 3 000 it fell over 20 percent this gave you a great opportunity to buy terrific companies at very good prices behind every stock is a company if the company does terrific over a long period of time the stock will do terrific if the company does lousy the stock's going to do lousy that's all you're betting on this is a company that's had 35 years of double-digit earnings growth every single quarter we've had changes in the supreme court we've had the stock market go up and down we've got changes in presidents we've had recessions we've had wars all of those things had no effect on automatic data processing so every time the market went down it gave you a chance to buy it you're saying i believe strongly this company is going to do well if you start to see symptoms that's not going to happen the stocks going to very rapidly respond to that if the company runs out of steam the stock's going to run out of steam look at fannie mae from july through october 1990 the standard force 500 fell 21 fannie mae fell from about 42 a share to about 26 even though earnings were still increasing this was a terrific time to buy fannie mae the company was doing well management was still great the story was solid and they had a very good business but you got to buy the stock at a 38 discount if you start by looking at the entire universe's stocks more than 3 000 stocks on the new york stock exchange alone and over 13 000 public companies in total you'll blow a gasket so i break stocks into categories partly to make the job of researching more manageable putting stocks into categories is the first step in developing the story at least you'll know what kind of story it's supposed to be the category tells you what questions you should be asking about a company you simply can't expect all stocks to behave the same basing a strategy on general maxims like sell when you double your money or sell when the price falls ten percent is absolute folly no formula will apply to all stocks different stocks behave differently so they require different approaches different expectations and different kinds of stories suppose you've made a fifty percent gain on two companies one is a fast grower with a long way to go the other is a big lumbering slow growth company that has already saturated ninety five percent of its market and that market itself is growing slowly the 50 return is fantastic for the slow grower the chances are it's time to sell it the same 50 percent return could be just the tip of the iceberg for the fast grower there are basically five categories one would be fast growers two would be slow growers three would be cyclicals four would be asset plays and the fifth one would be turn arounds at the end of this presentation you'll have an opportunity to explore each category in more detail in the meantime remember categories are guidelines they are not hard rules some companies may not fit neatly into a category others may seem to be in two categories at once almost all companies change categories at some time throughout their lifetimes fast growers if successful will always eventually slow their growth they'll run out of places to go cyclicals experiencing long down cycles may become turnarounds once recovered they probably will be cyclicals again use the categories as guides to help you build your story but don't let them limit the questions you ask or the research you do one thing we can say about companies in general it's easier to go from 100 million in sales to 200 million dollars in sales than it is to go from 10 billion in sales to 20 billion in sales so smaller companies tend to have more upside potential than larger companies but don't dismiss all big companies out of hand some big companies defy their size and find exciting new ways to grow their earnings as well good opportunities exist in companies that are cyclical regardless of their size when most people think about investing in stock market they dream about investing in a fast grower a company that is growing at over twenty five percent a year at twenty five percent a year a company's profits will double in three they quadruple in six up eight fold in nine years that's how you get a huge stock in a decade there's not a lot of these but they're very powerful and the best part is you don't have to catch them just as they're taking off the beauty of growth companies is you have plenty of time if they're going to grow for 5 10 20 30 years you have to be there the first year the second year you could about walmart 10 years after they went public made 30 times your money what makes a company grow earnings so quickly either it is a rapidly growing industry or it's a rapidly growing company in a slow growth industry rapid revenue growth and rapid earnings growth are the hallmarks of a fast grower you just can't buy any stock with hot earnings and hot sales you have to check the balance sheet make sure the company can keep growing one way you can look at growth companies is think of baseball a normal baseball game has nine innings you should look at a growth company and say i don't want to buy it when they're in the first inning i want to buy it when they're in the second or third inning they've got the formula right they get lots of room to go so you want to say to yourself this is a company that's very early in its cycle like a mcdonald's when they're only in a few stores or limited when they're only in 100 stores and they had lots of malls to go to microsoft was a company you could have bought three years after it went public and made over 20 times your money sales and earnings were growing at several times the rate of the companies in the s p 500 in an industry that was exploding by leaps and bounds and it had a lot of potential both overseas and domestically this was only the beginning of a 15 to 20 year growth cycle you had plenty of time to get involved this amazing company called superior industries i think the stock went up over 100 fold they were very good at making aluminum wheels a lot of car companies went to aluminum wheels the industry for autos wasn't growing aluminum wheels was growing dramatically and they were the best at it the fast growers get all the attention in the media but there's nothing wrong with slow growing stock provided you get it at a very decent price somebody would say to you i'm gonna sell you a business for a hundred thousand dollars and they're earning fifty thousand dollars a year you say what's the bad news let's say the bad news the earnings are never going to grow they earn fifty thousand dollars a year forever so this is a price earnings multiple of two you pay a hundred thousand dollars fifty thousand dollars earnings but they're never gonna grow you say i don't care i'm going to get a 50 000 return every year in two years i get all my money back and i'm gonna make fifty thousand dollars a year on my 100 000 investment forever so sometimes even if a company has a very low growth rate in earnings if the stock is selling at the right price it may still be a very good deal a slow to moderate grower will have earnings growth of three to fifteen percent a year one company that i was very lucky with was service corp international it's a funeral home company that bought up local family funeral homes a very steady business service corp could grow earnings at 15 a year when i owned it with very little problems a slogor that turns into a no grower is a very bad news situation so when you start researching to the stock look for these signs steady earnings growth you can find annual earnings growth rates in the research section as well as estimates for the coming year rising dividends companies that raise their dividends each year have to have the earnings to do so a rising dividend is normally a good sign for a stock room to keep growing you want slow growers to go on forever that's one reason i like service corp international so much this was a great stock for me in the 1980s at that point it had a long way to go cyclical companies rise and fall with the economy typically they make expensive big-ticket items that people buy when the economy is good things like houses cars and furniture when the economy is bad and people are worried about losing their jobs they don't buy big-ticket items they're too broke or too scared that they will go broke don't try to time a cyclical stock if you don't have intimate knowledge of the business if you don't have an investor's edge everyone on wall street tries to time cycle stocks too because the stock market looks forward you could be left with a sinking stock even though the company's earnings are terrific you make your best money in a cyclical when earnings go from rotten to mediocre or from mediocre to pretty good the danger point is when earnings go from great to spectacular somewhere between these two points wall street will figure out there's only one way to go and that's for profits to go down some point in the future just don't buy in the hope wait for things to get better prices to get better capacity to shrink inventories to go down scrap prices to get better something ought to be happening so you just want to wait for something really to happen and then when it happens it's going to be big let's take a look at chrysler in 1990 the company was selling for ten dollars a share the economy was lousy people were talking about chrysler going out of business but guess what the economy came back everyone's old car was falling apart as people made more money they started buying new cars and because chrysler had great products the minivan the jeep and its first new full-size truck in 20 years the stock was big in addition very importantly the balance sheet was decent in 1990.
this was not a company about to go bankrupt if it's a cyclical you're hoping for dramatic turnaround in earnings it's going to happen over two or three years earnings is going to go from a loss to a huge profit stock's going to go up and you're going to get out make sure you're picking a strong company that can survive when the cycle goes down that means good cash flow and low debt if its cash flow is spotty or its debt is high when the downturn comes the company faces the danger of going bankrupt turnarounds these are stocks that are battered down or they're hated companies or they've been forgotten about they're depressed in price but you've determined some one thing or a few things that have the potential for reversing this company's fortunes independent of the industry getting better with the economy getting better you always have to do a balance sheet check on any company this includes turnarounds do they have enough cash to make it through the next 12 months the next 24 months do they have a lot of debt that's due right now these are important questions to answer make sure you understand and believe in the plan to restore corporate profits it's all internal they're doing something either new product new management cutting costs getting rid of something something inside the company that allows them to improve themselves lots of turnarounds never happened but a few winners can make up for lots of losers what's important is to wait for the actual evidence of the turnaround occurring not just the symptoms the turnaround you had plenty of time so just don't buy on the hope wait for the reality turnarounds are so big it's worth waiting to get some real evidence ss kresge was a company going nowhere in real trouble they invented the kmart formula they rolled it out across the country the stock went up over 50 fold kmart became a massive stock you
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