저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 마크스는 연준의 공격적 시장 개입이 대공황을 막았다고 평가하지만, 부작용과 향후 시장 가격 방향은 불확실하다고 봄. 연준 개입 평가: 연준이 할 수 있는 일이 없었던 것은 아니지만 대공황 위험을 막은 것은 옳았다는 입장. 부작용이 있을 수 있으나 개입 자체가 잘못이라는 뜻은 아님. 연준 정책 확장 우려: 연준이 하이일드 ETF와 투기등급 채권까지 매입하는 등 선을 넘을 수 있음. 어디까지 확장될지, 주식 매입까지 갈지는 알 수 없다고 함. 시장 영향: 연준 매입이 시장을 인위적으로 떠받치는 '포템킨 시장'일 수 있으며, 매입이 멈추면 붕괴할 수 있다고 경고. 오크트리 투자 행보: 3월에는 공적 부채시장을 적극 매수했으나, 정부·연준 프로그램 발표 후 가격이 올라 현재는 공격적 매수를 줄였음. 향후 전망: 기업 부도가 15~25%에 이를 것으로 보고 있으며, 4월 부도 19건은 역대 최고 수준. 위기가 몇 달 더 이어질 것이므로 디스트레스 기회가 커질 것이고 오크트리는 더 공격적으로 매수할 수 있다고 봄. 사회적 비용: 구제금융이 부유층·월가 중심이라는 인식으로 포퓰리즘과 계층 분노가 커졌으며, 이번 위기도 이를 더 키울 것으로 전망. 리스크: 연준 개입의 부작용 규모와 시기는 예측 불가. 시장 가격이 인위적으로 유지될 경우 급락 위험.
다듬은 글
some people would say that the fed has no choice but to step in and do everything it possibly can howard but by doing what it has done do you believe do you worry that it has set the stage for more recklessness in the future first of all eric i am absolutely among the people who believe that the fed had no choice thank god that it did what it did we were you know bruce and i were uh go back to uh march 18th or 19th we were just actively discussing the possibility of a global depression of a multi-year uh very serious economic impact and the fed and treasury and other central bank actions have we believe prevented this and nobody's talking about global depression anymore so i'm absolutely among those people but it's very important to note that just because something has unforeseeable negative consequences that doesn't mean it was a mistake i believe that there may be negative consequences from the from these actions uh uh but certainly that doesn't mean they shouldn't have been undertaken for now the federal reserve has drawn the line at fallen angels investment grade bonds that were downgraded to junk and we've talked about what that has done for the investment grade market and the fed is also buying at the moment high-yield etfs right what if howard the fed goes further into junk territory what if it decides that it's okay to buy double b's or perhaps even lower rated debt well eric there are also people who believe that one of these days the fed may turn to buying common stocks so you know the buying of corporate bonds is a first uh and what they've demonstrated is that there are no tactics that they won't engage in there are people who believe by the way that it violates the rules under which the fed acts uh but they're doing it anyway and they'll they'll argue later about whether or not it was okay um so uh yes their they're they'll do anything um their arsenal has been described as limitless um i still believe that it'll only work as long as it works uh and as long as they're actively doing it look eric what if the fed said we're going to be the buyer in every transaction every bond transaction every stock transaction we're going to be the buyer the fed has an unlimited checkbook you know they our checks never clear so we we're going to we're going to buy forever you know this fed has increased its balance sheet up to 10 trillion there's no limit we'll buy them all well in theory they could do that and in theory they if they bought aggressively they could make all the markets rise now everybody would know that that's a potemkin market that it's a fake and the minute they stopped things would collapse and you know certainly the the fed buying would drive out all private buying because we'd all know that the fed is paying too much money the question is is there any reason why they couldn't do that i don't know in one of my memos i said why doesn't the fed just just send out a check to a million dollar check to every american it would only cost 350 trillion dollars and we'd all be rich and prosperity would return and so the question is facetious the question is is there a downside to things like that would there be negative ramifications i have to think so i don't know what they would be so will there be negative ramifications to the fed's buying of fallen angels and uh high-yield etfs i don't know would there be further ramifications if they bought single bees if they bought common socks i don't know i believe so you know here we are our gdp is 20 uh trillion and uh we have done securities purchases uh and and uh stimulus and support in many trillions in one two month period are there limitations to what can be done and are there ramifications i believe so but you know this is not a science we'll see what they are howard how do these considerations and concerns affect what oak tree is doing effect what oak tree is buying and when oak tree is buying sure well we were very active buyer in the public debt markets in mid-march uh and then on the 23rd or fourth of march the the the government and fed started to talk about what their program would be and around the 26 they announced it and that drove up prices in the public credit markets to the point where we're not buying as aggressively at this point in time so it you know it has it has changed the market from what it would have been if they hadn't gotten involved and that has had impact for us and i think that's inescapable do you think investment opportunities are likely to improve from this point forward where you will see the opportunity the the the the possibility of making elevated returns again or are we sort of here now and here for the time being well you tell me will the will the fed decide to be the buyer on every transaction in which case prices don't ever have to go down in theory you know yogi berra said in theory there's no difference between theory and practice but in practice there is um but let's let's talk about the future in a serious way so i mentioned that the rating agencies believe and the investment banks that between 15 and 25 or so percent of the high-yield bonds outstanding will default uh that's uh roughly 400 billion dollars that's a lot to buy um in april i believe there were 19 defaults or bankruptcies and i believe that's the greatest in history greatest single month in history and we're just getting going you know the defaults in bankruptcies largely occur when companies run out of cash and the fact that 19 occurred in the first full month of the crisis and that the crisis has months more to run tells me there'll be more defaults in bankruptcy and there as i mentioned before there are large highly levered companies and investment vehicles that the government and fed rescue program is not likely to reach and take care of so we believe there'll be plenty um and uh uh you know it it boggles the mind to think that we're going to have a crisis of the magnitude of this one and not have uh fallout and typically uh we have been able to profit from that fallout so is that to say that while oak tree was buying aggressively in march less so now it may yet become a more aggressive buyer in the months ahead absolutely i mean they you know uh like they say in in uh in the football game we take what they give us and the greater the the the dislocation uh usually the greater the bargains which means the greater our buying we think that there's a substantial opportunity uh ahead howard we know now that the federal bailouts and the stimulus programs that followed the financial crisis came at a social cost one of those costs was the widening gap between the rich and the poor you and i have talked about it you've written about it what do you think the costs of the pandemic bailouts and and stimulus programs will be at a social level well more the same i mean we've had a substantial rise in populism in this country and around the world and uh i would uh describe populism as class resentment and the bailout from the global financial crisis was easy to characterize as a bailout of wall street not main street the banks were protected and brought back to life at the same time that many thousands of americans lost their homes just to to to put it in stark terms and so that gave rise to populism and a class resentment and i think that uh in this in this go around number one the banks are not in the condition they were 12 years ago and so they do not have to be uh buttressed in the same way and um you know i i think it's absolutely essential as i mentioned before that this economic uh support uh be engaged in but still people will be able to say look they gave 50 billion to the airlines and they gave this to that company and this to that company and they bailed out the fat cats uh and uh and uh 20 30 million americans lost their jobs so uh i would imagine that that this episode will add further to that to that populism howard i want to thank you very much well it's always a pleasure to be here with you eric you
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