저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 사상 최장 상승 후 과잉 부채와 유동성으로 언젠가 역대 최악의 약세장이 올 것이며, 당장은 시장이 강세를 유지하되 버블 정점은 예측 불가하다. [시장 전망] 미국 증시는 10년 넘게 상승했고 최고치를 경신했으며, 연준의 돈 찍기와 부채 급증으로 당분간 강세가 이어질 수 있다. 단, 버블과 블로우오프 후 붕괴 가능성이 있으며 시기는 예측하지 않는다고 밝힘. [채권] 전 세계 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸며 버블 상태다. 더 오를 수는 있으나 싸지 않다. [주식 밸류에이션] 미국 증시는 사상 최고가 부근으로 싸지 않다. 일본 주식은 고점 대비 40~60% 하락해 상대적으로 싸다. 중국 주식도 40~50% 하락. [러시아] 러시아 루블 채권(특히 단기, 고금리)이 싸질 수 있다고 언급. 러시아 해운주를 매수했다고 밝혔으나 시청자에게는 러시아 해운주 매수를 권하지 않음. [원자재·농지] 원자재는 현재 가장 싼 자산군으로 보나, 바닥 여부는 불확실하며 매수를 권하지 않음. 설탕은 고점 대비 80% 하락. 일본 농지는 매우 싸다. [중국] 차세대 강국은 중국이며 21세기는 중국의 세기가 될 것이라고 봄. [투자 철학] 분산 투자보다 한 바구니에 집중하라는 입장. 단, 시청자에게는 본인 말을 듣지 말고 스스로 판단하라고 강조. [기타] 여행·항공·호텔 관련 자산이 크게 하락했으나 장기적으로 회복될 것으로 봄. [리스크] 부채 급증, 연준 유동성, 코로나 이후 경기 침체 우려 등 전반적 리스크를 강조.
다듬은 글
I'm here with Jim Rogers here in Singapore... 이 부분은 원문 그대로 번역하지 않고, 아래에서 원문 기준으로 정리하겠습니다.
I'm here with Jim Rogers here in Singapore, Jim, thanks so much for joining me today. The American market went up for over 10 years, which is... it never happened before without a setback, so America has set a new record on the upside. It was certainly overdue for something to go wrong. The debt got stretched higher and higher and higher, not just in the U.S. but all over the world. But we focus more or less on the U.S. because that makes it simple, and the U.S. is the biggest. The debt went skyrocketing, and it's because the Federal Reserve just kept printing money and flooding the world with money, as did other central banks. So the world was ready.
As you know, you and I have discussed this. I told you we're going to have another bear market someday, another problem someday, and it's going to be the worst in my lifetime. I didn't know about the virus, but I certainly knew the conditions were fraught. The debt was unbelievable. We had a huge problem in 2008 because of debt. By 2019–2020, the debt was staggering. So it had to lead to a serious problem, whatever caused the problem.
Kim, I know you're aware there's an election in November in the United States. It's less than six months away. These guys don't care about you or me or your readers or your kids, or my kids. Certainly young people don't care about the election. That's all they are thinking about right now. Before this, the United States was the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Oh my gosh. Since then, just in the last two or three months, the debts have skyrocketed. It's going to continue. Someday somebody's going to have to sit around and say, "Well, wait a minute, what do we do next? What happens now?"
I would suspect the markets will continue to be fairly strong. The U.S. just made its all-time high, because there's so much money being printed and so much money being spent. It's got to go somewhere. I don't think it's going to be a lot of fun, but it is going to end, I assure you. The market's just going to say, "Okay, we've seen this movie before, we're not going to play this game anymore." But that doesn't preclude a bubble. That doesn't preclude a blow-off. Markets frequently have blow-offs after a long period of rising. I have no idea—I'm not any good at market timing or short-term trading. But I have seen throughout history that after markets go up for a while, they'll frequently have a bubble, and all the ingredients are in place right now for a bubble. Bubbles always end when somebody finally says, "Now." All these smart old guys get out, and all the smart young guys stay and make a lot more money, but then even the smart young guys say, "Wait a minute, we've got to stop this." Young women too, old women too. That's the way most bubbles end.
As I look around the world, bonds are certainly not cheap. Bonds have never in world history been this expensive. So bonds are a bubble. That doesn't mean they can't go higher, but bonds are certainly not cheap by any measure or any historical standard. Stocks in the U.S. are making all-time highs. Well, that's probably not cheap at an all-time high, though that doesn't mean they can't go a lot higher. Japanese stocks are down 40 or 50 percent from their all-time high. That doesn't make them cheap, but it's cheaper than being at an all-time high. Chinese stocks are down 40 or 50 percent. I told you I bought Japanese ETFs, because that's what the old man running the bank likes to buy. So I bought Chinese shares. I bought Russian shares too. Everybody hates Russia. There are still things that may be cheap going forward, like Russian government bonds in rubles. Nobody likes Russia, nobody likes rubles, but bonds, especially short-term bonds, are very high-yielding right now. The ruble collapsed, so there are things that might present opportunities.
As you know, anything to do with travel has been smashed. I recently bought a Russian shipping company, because airlines, restaurants, hotels—they're empty. You and I live in Singapore, where the Singapore airport is essentially closed. Nobody's paying attention to these things. But Kim, I do know we are going to continue to fly someday. We're not all going to take the bus around Europe or around America, and we're not all going to take the boat to London in the future. I do know airplanes will come back. I do know things having to do with travel will come back, and the world will come back someday.
Listen, Kim, if somebody's watching this and they can't find Russia on a map, please do not go buy Russian shipping stocks. If you don't know how to buy Russian shipping, don't buy Russian shipping just because some guy you saw on the internet said he's buying it.
If you look at commodities, they're certainly probably the cheapest asset class around right now, because they've been going down for a while. That doesn't mean it's the bottom, and it doesn't mean you should buy them. But if you look at any historic bases—sugar is down 80 percent from its all-time high, while bonds are at all-time highs, the highest they've been in world history. So looking around the world at asset classes, commodities are certainly the cheapest. Farmland in some countries is very cheap, because it's been such a disaster for so long. If you go to Japan, they'll give you farmland, because nobody wants to be a farmer. The problem is, who's going to farm it? That's why it's so cheap—the average age of farmers in Japan is 66. They give you a farm if you show up, but unless you know how to farm, you're going to be in trouble like everybody else. "I got this cheap farm, what am I going to do with it?"
I still expect China to be the next great country in the world. I don't see any other country on the horizon. As we have discussed, the 19th century was the century of the UK, the 20th century was the century of the U.S., and the 21st will be the century of China, whether we like it or not. A lot of people don't like it. If you want to succeed, put all your eggs in one basket. It's got to be the right basket, and you'd better watch that basket very, very closely. That's how you succeed. You don't get rich diversifying. I understand the story, but most people who are investing want to get rich. They want a hot tip and they want to get rich this week, which is a horrible way to invest, but unfortunately that's the reality.
I of course say: don't do that. Don't do that at all. Don't listen to me, don't listen to other people. Stay with what you know, and don't diversify.
My advice is to do it. It's extremely educational, it's extremely fun, but you'd better be sure you mean it, because it's not easy, though it looks easy. Oh yeah, I get on my motorcycle and drive around the world—anybody can do that, get in my car and drive. It's not easy. Many people try, but many don't, because it's hard even to try. Many get killed, many go home, many have accidents or injuries. So don't even think about it unless it's a deep passion. It's like starting a business: don't even think about it unless it's a deep passion, because these things are not nearly as easy as they look. But if it's your passion, there's nothing better. You cannot get a better education. You cannot learn more about yourself. Back to what we were talking about earlier—we need to find out about ourselves first, and it's a good way to find out about the world. There's nothing quite like it. It's magic, but it ain't easy. You might very well get killed, so be careful. Go wash your hands. Take care. Bye.
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