저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 모두가 시장이 사이클 후반이라고 믿으면 그 믿음은 이미 가격에 반영되어 있어 그 견해만으로는 수익을 내기 어렵다. 핵심 주장 1: 투자의 목표는 맞는 것이 아니라 남들보다 더 맞는 것이다. 널리 공유된 정확한 전망은 돈을 벌어주지 못한다. 핵심 주장 2: 시장 전반이 신중해진 것은 기대치가 낮다는 뜻이라 긍정적 신호이며, 실제 결과가 컨센서스보다 좋으면 수익이 난다. 다만 컨센서스는 대체로 맞는 편이라 남과 다른 독창적 전망은 수익성은 있으나 맞추기 드물다. 사례: 2017년 12월 세금법 통과 후 장기 호황에 대한 낙관이 번졌고, 호주의 26년 무침체 등을 근거로 경기침체가 멀다는 이메일이 쏟아졌다. 그러나 4분기 시장은 크게 하락했다. 전망은 현실보다 훨씬 크게 흔들린다. 역발상 투자: 역발상은 남과 반대로 하는 것이 아니다. 다른 사람들이 무엇을 하고 왜 하는지, 그 행동의 잘못이 무엇인지 이해한 뒤 적절한 행동을 해야 한다. 조엘 그린블랫은 역발상이 실수를 이용하는 것이며 이해를 바탕으로 해야 한다고 강조했다. 리스크/조건: 독창적 예측은 수익 가능성은 높지만 틀릴 위험도 크다. 무조건적 반대 베팅은 위험하다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없고, 사이클 후반 인식과 역발상 원칙에 대한 일반론만 언급했다.
다듬은 글
think ever since the your book came out last october i have a anecdotal evidence that it has become a consensus in the market when i listen watch the finance news media that everybody seem to agree that we are really in that late stage of the cycle and so that and before that i think i always can you know hear some people coming oh we are you know we're early we're in the middle but seems right now everybody really is convinced that we are late in the cycle so that brings me two questions i mean if everybody is convinced that we are late in a cycle wouldn't that uh awareness of the lateness let this cycle kind of prolong this cycle and make the anticipation of the cycle more challenging and the second related question is if this is really true that everybody is kind of cautious wouldn't that make when the cycle really turns would that make the the market reaction more benign let's say versus the last time around thank you well thank you i said one question i didn't say two but but anyway the answer is that if everybody holds a point of view by definition it's baked into prices so if you agree with that point of view it's not going to make you any money even if it's right the goal in investing with regard to understanding the environment or even the future is not to be right the goal is to be more right than others and correct forecasts which are commonly held don't make anybody any money so if everybody is now cautious uh that's a that's a favorable sign because that means that expectations are low and if things come in if you are more optimistic than the consensus and things come in better than the consensus expects then you will make money of course the problem is that usually the consensus is about right so so correct idiosyncratic forecasts are potentially profitable but rarely correct but that doesn't mean you shouldn't try and by the way that's one of the reasons why i don't spend a lot of time making forecasts but i will say one thing about the people and the consensus that that we're in the late stages um you'll recall that in december of 17 the government passed the tax bill and people got very excited stock market did very well and everybody thought that it would be very uh salutary for the economy and i started to get emails from people you know because we were in the 10th year of the economic well at that time we're in the ninth year and uh there's never been an economic recovery in the united states that went more than 10 years and so most people were kind of getting a little cautious about late stages and then i started after the tax bill was passed i started to get emails from people saying things like australia has not had a recession for 26 years and since this is the ninth year maybe we're going to go 17 more years without a recession which in my opinion is another form of saying this time it's different which is the four worst words in the world anyway so all these people started to think well maybe we're not going to have recession maybe we'll never have a recession maybe it's not going to come for 17 years or 5 years or 10 or whatever it might be and then of course the market proceeded to do very well based on that optimism then the trouble is that in the fourth quarter all the people who said no recession for 17 years said next week and that's why the economy the market did so badly in the fourth quarter so the point is uh as i say forecasts swing much more radically than reality swings and uh it's it's desirable so that leads us to the issue of being a contrarian and it's important to be a contrarian except that it's not always the right thing to do and there are a lot of people say oh contrarian well what contrarian means is you do the opposite of others no to be an intelligent contrarian you have to know what others are doing know why they're doing it know what's wrong with what they're doing and then figure out if there's appropriate action be to be taken on that in my sec my first book the most important thing had a second edition called the illuminated edition in which some notable investors and i added commentary to the first edition and told people what what they should think about what they had just read and um joel greenblatt who's who was a great equity investor uh uh one of the greatest uh who nobody has ever heard of although he has some books out called the little book that will make you a market genius or something like that very good books and they have the merit of being short joel put in on the section on contrarianism just because you think just because five other people will not stand in the path of an oncoming mack truck doesn't mean you should so it's contrarianism is not just a matter of doing the opposite of others it's a matter of taking advantage of mistakes and it has to be done on an understanding and i hope that helps thank you for having me today it's been great being here you
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