저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 코로나 공포로 인한 시장 급락을 과잉반응으로 보고 지금이 매수 기회라고 본다. 시장은 15~20% 상승 후 과매수 상태였고, 하락은 언론이 붙인 이유일 뿐 경제 전체를 반영하지 않는다고 주장한다. 바이러스 피해는 미국 독감 사망자(2~3만명)에 비해 작지만 아시아의 소비 위축(식당·항공·호텔 등)은 실질 영향이 크다. 미국은 장기 경기침체 가능성이 있으며, 각국 정부의 금리 인하·통화 발행이 마지막 거품 랠리를 만들 수 있다고 본다. 금: 현재 하락은 마진콜 매도에 따른 것으로, 베어마켓에서 흔한 현상이라며 금을 사고 있다고 말한다. 백금·팔라듐은 급등 후라 매수하지 않겠다고 했다. 주식: 아시아(특히 항공·관광·호텔·공항)가 가장 많이 하락해 매수 대상으로 보며, 인도는 아직 더 떨어져야 한다고 본다. 러시아 기업 매수도 언급했다. 정치: 샌더스 지지율 상승 속에서도 현직 대통령 트럼프가 재선될 가능성이 크다고 전망한다. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 바닥 확인 전 분할 접근, 금·아시아 자산 선호, 미국 경기침체 대비 필요.
다듬은 글
you know what should investors be doing here well they probably should be buying i know it's attributed to the virus but remember the virus has been around for three months now and the virus has been spreading a lot of places if you ask me what's going on the market got overbought you know market went up 15 or 20 percent with virtually oak down days got overbought and now we're having a sell-off of course whenever there's a sell-off journalists find a reason they always have to have a reason they can't just say oh it was over about so here we have a reason but it's also important to keep in mind jim you know and maybe you disagree or agree that just because the stock market is down is not a reflection of of the economy necessarily no no no the market fluctuates all the time i'm not the first to know that you're not the first to know that no we've had many fluctuations this one is a severe one but the up the run up was a severe one as well jim you're in new york today i know you're based in singapore can you give us insights as to you know what we're getting from the news we're getting from asia is is it correct is it trustworthy what's the situation really like i will it is i would say there's such panic here uh in in the west if i can put it that way everybody's scared i'm on a couple of boards they don't want me to come to the meetings they want me to sit in another room they're like have you been you haven't been quarantined for 12 days yes it's amazing see i have no fear and i'm pregnant good for you you know there's no reason for you to have any fear that's the point i'm trying to make you know so far this year in america something like 20 or 30 000 people have died of the flu i don't see anybody panicking here running around because of the flu two or three thousand three thousand people have died of this particular flu but living in asia yes the shops are empty yes the restaurants are empty because everybody's in panic but very few people are sick okay is this the danger to the economy though is that the behavioral change we'll see from the consumer yes everybody's panicking right so people are not going to go to restaurants people are not going to go to movies and whatnot so is that the real cause for concern yes then that is the cause the flu the virus is more or less is peaking certainly in china it's peaking because they took draconian measures i mean they closed the whole place down which you probably couldn't do in most countries but they did it so it's it's in decline it's in decline in asia but still the effects are going to go on planes are empty restaurants are empty rest hotels or everywhere i go not there's nobody there so it's having an effect so will we have a global recession because of it probably yeah we're overdue as you know it's been over ten years longest in american history without a recession so we're certainly overdue what's happening in asia is having a big effect on the economies of asia that's not going to get even if the flu is over if the repercussions are going to go on for a while it might tip us into a recession we're overdue so even if the fed starts cutting rates right that's not going to save anything really because of the behavioral changes again well what you have in asia and other places now are governments panicking cutting rates printing money spending money the us is probably going to do that too if they get more and more panic if you start seeing cases in new york or l.a or places where the media is washing oh my god if it's washington they're going to cut rates they're going to spend more money and print more money and that might lead to the last big you know blow-off blow-off rally now the question is jim well gold's supposed to be a safe haven and look at gold today as we're speaking last time i checked spot gold was down you know 55 dollars i don't know which one oh good because i want to go boston i know i know you've always said daniella you know i like when gold goes down because that's my opportunity to buy good news i'm going to leave you and go buy some gold but is it just a reaction are they just are people selling gold for cash to meet margin calls what's going on here well of course everything is going down and you go back to previous bear markets 2008 for instance everything went down including gold for a while gold went down a lot for a while usually in bear markets people have to sell and they sell everything in sight including gold and that's when you buy gold so you'd be buying here i'm going to go buy something this afternoon how about the pgms do you like platinum palladium rhodium which has had a crazy run-up i'm too too lazy i'll go buy gold and silver here well platinum i mean uh palladium has been skyrocket no i don't think i would buy palladium platinum probably not even platinum because they you know all those those precious metals have gone up like rockets amazing i don't think i've ever seen well silverback once or twice but you rarely see this kind of move in anything much less precious metals so i don't think i'll buy them you buy them kidko kitko i'm saving for the twins jim let me ask you said you would be buying you know equities here what companies in particular like insurance companies perhaps or no would you like i would buy asia because asia's down the most i mean america's down 14 i mean that's a big deal but you know china's down like 60 from its all-time high japan no i would probably buy airlines in asia because they have been decimated totally decimated things like airlines tourist companies hotel chains uh airports just yesterday and you were liking india last time we spoke is that still not buying india but if india unity hasn't gone down enough uh yet the place i like to buy places at russia i would be i there's a company in russia i want to be buying uh in the next day or two places that are decimated but who is getting a bounce is bernie sanders so let me get your thoughts on politics here are you know are people just liking him more now because of this is there any correlation you think to the stock market trump people get scared he's got simple answers he's going to make everybody make sure you don't get hurt you're going to have plenty of money but i don't think he'll win trump will win it's very difficult to defeat a sitting president in america you know because and the reason is sitting presidents if they need votes over here they spend money over here the opposition cannot spend money over if they need money over here the votes over here they spend money over here so it's very very difficult historically to defeat a sitting president so overall how do you you're in new york now you didn't come here for refuge from singapore i'm assuming that's not your safe haven uh but you feel you know how do you feel well i what i've as i say the main thing i've noticed on this trip is that everybody is in a panic about the virus the fact that i i think i've been in singapore three days in the last uh month but people know you live in singapore you must be oh my god oh my god don't come close to me don't come to the media i'm here for board meetings don't come to the meetings phone in you know i haven't even been in singapore except for two or three days yeah it's panic when you're here was everyone wearing masks what many people were i wasn't but i don't have a mask too much trouble i'm too lazy and too lazy so far i haven't gotten the virus jim rogers thank you so much it's my delight you
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