저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 법정화폐 신뢰가 무너지고 있어 금·은 등 실물자산과 안전자산 보유가 합리적이라는 장기 견해. 달러: 달러는 안전자산이라는 믿음 때문에 많이 보유 중이며, 문제가 깊어지면 달러가 과대평가되어 버블이 될 수 있다고 봄. 버블이 생기면 매도할 수 있기를 바란다고 언급. 엔화·스위스프랑: 엔화와 스위스프랑도 안전하다고 여겨지지만 실제로는 아니라고 주장. 일본은 부채가 급증하고 인구가 10년째 감소 중이라 심각한 위기 국가라고 진단. 대안 통화: 믿을 만한 법정화폐가 거의 없다고 평가. 싱가포르를 비교적 안전하다고 보나 확신하지 못함. 중국 위안화는 보유 중이나 자본통제로 교환이 막혀 있어 전환 가능하면 더 담을 것이라고 함. 러시아 루블은 자산이 많지만 대량 매수는 하지 않음. 암호화폐: 모든 암호화폐가 결국 0으로 가고 사라질 것이라고 비관. 정부가 통제권을 포기하지 않으므로 법으로 금지될 수 있다고 봄. 디지털화폐: 모든 돈이 컴퓨터에 저장되는 방향이며 중국이 앞서 있다고 언급. 정부가 통제를 강화할 것이라고 우려. 금·은: 금은 과거처럼 화폐 기능을 하지 않지만 여전히 보유 중이며, 역사적으로 은이 금보다 훨씬 저렴해 금보다 은을 더 사고 싶다고 밝힘. 정부가 금 보유 신고를 요구할 수 있다는 우려 언급. 리스크: 정부 규제·자산 신고 강화, 화폐 통제 가능성.
다듬은 글
going a bit towards the currency currencies and uh the world's reserve currency is still backed by atomic atomic power as we would say us dollar as a safe haven now you've always said if you are if you're if you're if you're mentally not sure you should not buy the us dollar we can see now the us dollar is starting to weaken already how you see this to to unfold if also especially looking at the protests going on in your country right i own a lot of us dollars and have for a while on the theory that when the problems come people will look for a safe haven they think the us dollars are safe it's not it's not but everybody thinks it is so i own a lot of us dollars and i suspect that will continue most currencies are weak against the u.s dollar because of what i just got through saying i still own them i haven't sold any i the u.s dollar is going to get overpriced as the turmoil gets worse and worse in the next couple of years might turn into a bubble i mean why not currencies have turned into a bubble in the past and if it happens i hope i'm smart enough to sell you know and put my money somewhere else i have a couple of ideas of where i might put it but who cares i mean right now i own a lot of us dollars and i'm not selling talking about safe haven the japanese yen now you are you've always been you've always been happy living in asia and you like also asian currencies the japanese yen is another safe haven is also now in a way depreciating so what's your outlook maybe on the on the japanese yen moving forward well the many people who consider the japanese yen a safe haven again it's not it's just like the us dollar people think it is but the japanese have huge debts you know i've just i've just published a couple of books in japan uh to pointing out that the debt is skyrocketing the population has been declining for 10 years japan is a country heading for serious serious trouble but many people think many people think the the the yen is safe i don't know no i don't own an em but uh so so it is one that people still consider safe i'm not i don't own it the swiss franc is another one that people think is safe it's not my gosh it's not uh but for historic reasons people think these currencies are safe and of course as this crisis unfolds more and more people will realize hey we've been wrong now what do we do what will be the new safe haven and i suggest to them that they watch fx strategy that's how they can find out what's the next safe haven is bringing the question back to you though i mean we've talked about the us dollar we talked about the yen we talked about the swissy uh in terms of the fiat currencies which one would be your pick maybe being undervalued or overvalued where you still see an appreciation in any currency of some sort uh i'm looking for a sound currency the problem is frank there are no sound currencies left in the world you know when i was a kid the deutsche mark the swiss franc i mean there was some if you said to the swiss we're going to debase our currency they would have run you out of town or even the germans but even even switzerland now so i am looking i obviously look all the time uh some people consider singapore a fairly safe currency but i have not found a currency where i know the the fundamentals are sound enough that i want to put a lot of money in there when i start i think about the chinese currency i own the chinese currency but it's it's a blocked currency right now if it weren't blocked if it were convertible chances are i'd put more money there i look at the russian ruble russia doesn't have much debt russia has a lot of assets but then it's russia you know i have investments in russia i even own some russian government bonds in rubles but i'm not running out and buying a whole lot of rubles like i own a whole lot of us dollars at the moment getting close to russia being oil rich means of course we're getting back to the commodity point of view we haven't found a currency a fiat currency uh right now which is a good one to buy cryptos could be a way moving forward is that what what you would say well if you are i mean don't listen to me people should invest in what they want to invest in and what they know a lot about i happen to think all cryptos are going to zero and disappear many of them already have gone to zero and disappeared as as you well know but if you if you think it's going to work fine i know that throughout history governments don't like losing control now the crypto guys say but we're smarter than the government and of course they are everybody's smarter than the government but still the government has the guns and if the government says you're not going to use other things for money except hours you're probably not going to use other things you know and up until the 1930s people could use seashells banks could print their own money people could use gold if people could use whatever they wanted then one day the bank of england said the most important bank in the world then said okay from now on if you use anything except our money it is an act of treason well frank treason means they execute you so you know people stop using other forms of money and that will happen again if somehow these things work the bank the government's going to make it illegal that does not mean frank that money is not going to be on the computer money already is on the computer in china uh china is far ahead of us you cannot take a taxi in china with money i tried to buy an ice cream in beijing poor woman i had money i had chinese money she couldn't take it she didn't know what to do she gave me the ice cream because she didn't know what to do everybody's money is already on the computer in china yeah i now have it on my computer too but no money's going to be on the computer but it's going to be their money do i like it of course not gives them even more control they love it they love it they'll know they'll call you up one day frank and said you drank too much tea last month change your habits you know they'll know everything you do they love it i don't that sounds similar what you say right now uh than what i've heard from mark faber i talked to mark faber in our last interview and mark said if you don't report your gold to the government you might be reported or you might even be deported to a concentration camp kind of it's something similar what i'm trying to to understand from your words if i'm not wrong right well in the 30s they out in many countries they've outlawed the use of gold or the ownership of gold but back then it was because gold was the monetaries i mean in in those days gold was the money the basis for all money and all monetary systems so that's why they outlawed the use of gold because they had to get more control gold is not anybody's money now i don't think uh so gold gold doesn't have the same status now that it did once upon a time it might come a time yes when they tell you to report all your gold they already make you report your bank accounts they make you report your many all your holdings they already try to make you report everything they can so it might come a time when they make it make you report your gold um again i don't like it but all money is going to be on the computer so they're going to know pretty much anything everything anyway uh but i listen i i have some gold yes i have my gold you know i i have some silver i'd rather buy silver than gold right now because silver is so much cheaper than gold on a historic basis but you know the government the academics will say don't buy gold it's a it's archaic i don't care frank i'm an old peasant all of us old peasants all over the world know that when things go wrong we want some gold so i've got some gold too i think that makes sense that's right maybe someday they're gonna make us all reported if we don't report it we'll go to jail already i mean if i don't report my foreign bank accounts i can go to jail so it's already happening you
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