저자: RonBaron · 외국인
요약 보기
Ron Baron은 테슬라를 기술·데이터 기업으로 보며 장기 강세를 주장. 낮은 원가와 중국 공급망, 해외 공장 확대, 디플레이션 속 제조 마진 개선을 근거로 제시. 최근 주가 하락은 금리 탓이며 금리 하락 시 기회라고 봄. 노조화 우려는 과장이라는 입장. 진행자 Melissa Lee는 중국 성장 질문만 던짐.
다듬은 글
ooh let's see what juicy bullishness Ron Baron has to say for us regarding Tesla let's talk about Tesla as we always do but then I want to sort of brought it out and talk about the markets and some of the other companies that you're invested in there was a analyst call just yesterday this is HSBC which really uh initiated coverage they said that their price Target was $146 I assume you probably looked at this and and probably laughed given your very bullish views on Tesla but what was so interesting about the report was that they really were trying to define the company as an EV automobile maker is that the way you think about this company I think about it as a technology company that's providing services to othero their own company and to others they can't possibly be matched by anyone else um they have data technology they make cars cheaper than it was when Ford makes one of these cars remember that Ron Baron is the person who thinks of Tesla as Intel Inside remember back in the days of Intel Pentium inside or Intel centrino inside that was the big selling pitch think of Tesla FSD inside that's his long-term bull thesis although well that' be cool we haven't really started licensing FSD yet is that actually going to end up being functional we'll see here we go an electric car every car they make they lose $36,000 on $36,000 per car our company now makes about $8 or $9,000 in profit a COR they were making $155,000 in profit a COR but if they build a plant that cost $7 billion for a million cars that plan was making $15 million a year uh $15 billion a year on a $7 billion investment 15 billion on a 7 billion investment an ordinary Industrial company would make 15% on Capital 20% the most this guy's making his Capital twice a year now now he's making it once a year he's making $8 billion in a $7 million plan so he's the lowest cost person everything about the business is tring to drive prices lower that was a great reference there this reference to hey look even though he used to make twice his money on a factory now he's making once his money per year on a factory that's a very interesting point of view $15,000 profit per vehicle what he's doing is he's multiplying that by about 1 million per Factory to give some rough numbers here even though some of them cap out at about 750 he's giving rough approximations not a bad way to look at it is some came to you and said build this Factory for $7 billion here's some money from the government as well and here's a loan next year it'll make eight the year after that it'll make nine the year after that it'll make nine again then it'll make nine again then maybe it'll make 10 you're kind of going to do that all day long I like this analogy uh right now they will be in a very in in the 1900s early 1900s the automobile companies were tremendous innovators uh no longer is the case in the 1950s they decided they were going to go for profitability and they outsourced all of their supply chain to their detriment and all these companies went bankrupt hundreds of them went bankrupt and now uh the way we're going is that their electric cars they drive um I guess they have about 30 m a day 30 or 40 miles a day and they have five three million of them that are collecting data 100 million miles a day they're getting for data and then they're also getting compute that they're going to have more compute than anyone in the world in 18 months so to train it have you been surprised and this is true of the other eveve makers a lot of e makers have put out big goals in terms of sales and then they've scaled those those goals back saying this just not the customer demand do you think that is the responsibility or a function of the products that these other automakers are putting out or do you think that there actually isn't the demand for EVS RIT large that maybe was anticipated or expected my personal opinion quickly there is I think it's both It's a combination of okay wait a minute this is pricey for an EV when you go to Ford and some of the other EVs and they're not on the Tesla charging Network so you have a frustrating conv like it's tough to sell people on using these non- Tesla charging Network cars now a lot of the manufacturers are adopting Tesla Chargers but that doesn't happen overnight that's going to take probably a couple years and then is that only going to be newer models so in other words somebody who's stuck with a 4dv now are they not able to adopt to Tesla charging Stander maybe let's assume they get an adapter but the point is if we're not at that point yet and it still takes a year then again it's a higher barrier of entry for these non- Tesla supercharging EVS despite the fact that agreements have been made to get people into these uh Tesla EV Chargers now the second thing is well pricing and affordability Tesla's just a better deal uh and you've got companies that struggle actually making a profit making electric vehicles outside of Tesla nobody else in America is making a profit you have to go to China and see like byd for people making making profits there's a billion and a half cars that have to be get replaced uh they do about 80 million cars a year and small percentage of those 10% are electric right now uh ultimately it's going to be all electric uh but the rise the reason there's not more demand is the cars that are out there are not very attractive by the dealers you know that by the core companies and they're expensive number two and then in addition to that the dealers who sell them they don't want to sell them because there's nothing to service dealers make all their money on servicing so dealers sell them they're not selling talked about trying to bring prices down and that's something that Elon Musk has talked a lot about at the same time that he's going to try to bring prices down you have the poent the potential for Tesla to become a target of the UAW which of course just made this new deal uh with the other B automaker that's a big fear that people have and keep in mind Tesla's valuation right now it's trading for about a 2.5 Peg based on wall Street's estimates uh wall Street's only estimating 27% EPS growth over the next few years for Tesla I think that's well understated that should be close closer to 35% bringing their Peg roughly in line with nvidia's valuation right now uh the problem though is you do have this fear that oh no unionization is just going to kill Tesla profits oh no we're screwed at meaningfully higher prices in terms of what those employees are going to be getting what do you think about that I think Tesla's employees are the highest paid workers in the world as far to the automobile companies go CU they own stock as a function of the stock and uh that stock option would not be Pres in all instances if it were a unionized company when the unions were control of Fremont as soon as they had trouble they ran from it Tesla took over that plant in Fremont after the unions had left after the company had gone bankrupt uh Tesla employees there's a a good story that uh one of the executives of and then I want to talk about yeah yeah no of course uh uh one of the executives who devised the pay plan for the employees was telling me that he's a small Jewish guy like me and he was walking through a plan and a large black man walks over to him shaved head tattoos all over the place and says Ira Ira are you the man uh who devised the pay plan for us and he says yes he said I want you to know that I'm the first man in my family the first person in my family to ever be able to afford a home and thank you very much and so the workers there make more than anyone else by far and their healthc care been all the benefits are better the unions have been trying to organize Tesla Toyota all the forign companies for years they failed repeatedly why because those companies are not the Union's not in business to keep the employees their unions have the power uh before we move off Tesla just by the way the stock went down yesterday not because that report because of of Joe Biden President Biden who by the way I love what he's doing for Israel but I don't like that much what he's doing in business um some things I like uh but he's the one who said Union should organize Tesla that's what happened yesterday when the stock went down okay we'll come back to to the Biden piece in just a second Melissa Lee I think has a quick Tesla question because I know I want to talk you about a whole bunch of of other things Melissa yeah Ron thanks for taking my question um you know when you think about China how how do you think about the growth there because that's a key piece of the Tesla story Lee AO reported uh its earnings yesterday and had strong EV guidance it's gaining market share I'm just wondering how you think about the competition but also the weakening Chinese consumer and have you discounted that portion of the Tesla story at all given the the Chinese economic forecasts out there um Tesla right now is doing about a million 8 cars a year when we started investing in the company 7 years ago when we invested between 2014 and 2016 they were doing 41,000 cars a year so 41,000 cars a year to a million 8 they're on their way to 20 million cars China is about a million right now of their 2 mil8 uh but uh a large percentage of what they make in China is exported from China to Europe uh and uh the more they build in Europe of course the more they're going to save on Transportation costs and duties uh the idea is that China uh invited musk in and invited him in because the Chinese cor companies have done very poorly for a long time and the promise was that he's going to help them uh become better core manufacturers and going to he's not trying to take over the market in China better car manufacturers and develop a local supply chain and so he is the only one that's ever been invited into China that's been able to not have a partner a local partner to operate their business so I'm convinced that they have good operations in China the person who runs their Chinese business the uh the Tesla business in uh uh in Austin in fact is probably in line to be a you know important person uh at Tesla overall he's now he's Chinese and he runs he was brought from China to to Texas and uh uh runs the business there and he's going to be in charge of all the automobile business so I think the relations they have with China are exceptionally good uh uh they're both people are getting something from it uh and I think that that business will continue to grow but he's going to open Plants all around the world uh for lowcost cars and wait till you see what's going to happen when all of a sudden they start selling cars instead of for $40,000 a piece for $25,000 a piece which is going to happen in past a year year and a half uh from their new model the new model they think is going to do 5 million cars a year 5 million cars a year for the model two that's coming couldn't agree more first really important to remember that China's exporting deflation right now their PPI read year-over-year came in at - 2.6% that's really low you are anything you're Manufacturing in China right now is getting cheaper lithium down copper down iron down steel down commodity prices down you've got across the board deflation occurring in China right now it's a problem for China because they're heavily indebted deflation hurts a deader country we think we have a debt problem here look at the disaster that's happening in the Chinese uh economy with their real estate debt bubble that has absolutely been propped up for China's version of 2008 basically it's crushing everybody's net worth over in China especially since a lot of net worth is based on people's real estate ownership in China now what else CPI is negative even consumer prices are negative now I'll be at only 0 2% in China China is exporting deflation to America this makes it cheaper to manufacture cars that's a margin Tailwind for Tesla it's just going to take time for that to catch up as far as not having a local partner in China what he means is the government usually the government owns part of your business potentially up to % of your business when you operate and get licensed to do business in China that is not the case here because Ron Baron's 100% right establish the supply chain and other countries around the world will look to Tesla and say hey can you do what you did in China in our country that's why all the leaders open up their arms to Elon they're like please bring us 20 to 50,000 jobs please because you're going to make wherever you build that factory a completely functional City 50,000 people let's say working at a factory that's a city that you've created solely out of people working at the plant that's amazing Ron Baron's 100% right especially when you get to a lower cost car the pain of Tesla stock right now is entirely explainable by interest rates that's it and if you believe that interest rates are going to Trend down over the next decade then potentially this is your opportunity to invest in tesle stock my take I obviously have a bullish position in Tesla stock good luck and I completely agree with R Bar I cannot wait for the Tesla inside by the way can't wait for them to start saying hey here pay us 5 grand for any car you make and we'll put FSD in it at least autopilot like the Tesla autopilot is already 10x as good as any other driving support system that exists hands down f that house hack nor am I presently acting as a market maker
Comments 0