Samvat 2081: How To Pick The Right Stock? | Raamdeo Agrawal & Navneet Munot Share Insights

요약 보기

시장 대형 성장주는 큰 순풍(테일윈드)을 찾는 것이 핵심이며, 과거 이익 성장 사례로 BTI(인도 통신주) 등을 언급. 2024년 PSU 급락 후 밸류에이션은 아직 완전히 매력적이지 않다는 입장. 디지털화(결제·보험·투자 등)가 10~20년간 큰 테일윈드라 주장하며 GDP의 8%에서 20%로 확대 전망. 인도 주식시장은 단기 조정 가능하지만 5년 내 두 배 가능성 언급. 중국 부양책 기대 실망에 따른 자금 이동 가능성 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. we have the entire Global thing to discuss which we will do but let's also open it up to questions yeah you know I I would like to ask questions to both the guest it's Diwali time you know we talk about wealth creation you give a nice setup on the on the top down what IND where India stands and earnings and everything but R I want to ask you uh you know for the benefit of the viewers and and new firsttime investors how do you identify a a big winner like Trent I'm asking this because you know I met a fund man a very senior fund manager last week and his biggest regret of this year was to not buy Trent I believe you have in your fund as well the stock has been phenomenally well it's always been expensive so you know in because youve you've seen so many Market Cycles how do you identify a winner like Trend and ride for very long time next next Trend you know you have to find see one of the thing you need for this kind of stocks to come through is to find the Tailwind massive Tailwind see what happens is markets don't know where the Tailwind is going to come up say energy sector it was a dead you suddenly in last 12 months energy sector is thriving all over I mean historical IPO is just about closed yesterday I believe 250,000 crores have been kind of uh uh put in the demand so clearly it is backing the Tailwind so you have to find the Tailwind where Tailwind is like Capital Market has a Tailwind 4 million customers are coming every month so you have to find who are the beneficiary of that tent and then go and buy is sitting next to you in terms of benefiting so so everybody is a you know so you have to figure outline energy transition so you have to find one tnd see what has happened is buffet and all has taught us uh and he has over taught kind of thing people so what has happened is this Quality quality buying good franchise buying but what has happened is the last 25 30 globally these companies become exorbitantly expensive and they are not growth companies so if you have 70 80 P multiple and 5% growth how will you make money by no mathematics can you make money okay but it looks very nice on your Nestle Li and you I don't want to name too many so but you know so these names are not going to make money for you you have to find the one where tell you are early in identifying the tnd and you bet on that so like I'll tell you now past so like I remember buying bti AEL in 2003 so at that time the there were no phones in India there were 40 million fixed lines for this country of billion plus so the phone was absolute dire need and then these guys they come they grow like 5 7% month on month that kind of growth and but it was not making money so they came out with IPO at 45 bucks and quickly it became 19 bucks okay you could buy buy entire BH for 5,000 CR so I could I was lucky to identify that yes this is going to be grow sector I want I I bought it for doubler my always intention is to buy a company which will double in 3 years okay okay but it turned out to be 25x yes so now I can say I bought a multibagger no it it turned out to be multibagger so you never buy a multier to start with you buy as a healthy investment and it turns out to be uh you know the Tailwind turns off is so big that you end up getting the kind of a trend kind of a return uh sdfc Flex fund it's multiplied it's multiplied 200 times close to 200 times in last 30 years and of course I must say that mutual funds are subject to Market risk on a serious note past performance is no guarantee of future but what it shows is the power of compounding what it shows is the power of an Indian economy where we are so lucky where the economy has been growing at a decent pace you have corporate sector which converts that growth into their revenues and profits you have a stock market which converts that into the returns for the minority shareholder and mutual fund industry where with 500 R you can participate in the same growth this is phenomenal this has happened only in United States and very few countries many countries there are only two countries which are compounded India and America exactly there's no other country so they are more failed countries on this count then so if if you don't invest here go to us otherwise don't go anywhere I think long-term returns are 12 dollar returns are 12% both both markets right I think so more but it's a compounded return it's not a j compounded exact in one month you go up by 30% and then next next 30 Years you don't do anything it's not that kind of Market I mean the market makes new high almost every year yeah I mean even if there's a massive breakdown in a year's time it just comes back y abely that kind of compounding has not happened anywhere I think that's an emphatic talking about 15 days of Correction and maybe a quarter of funding slow down I mean we have handled much bigger challenges oh yeah in 25 years when all of this has compounded yeah I think Horas you ask question yeah actually I wanted to ask both of you gentlemen uh for a better part of 2023 and for the earlier part of 2024 as well everybody was talking about one sector that was a psus everybody was talking about psus every day you would see stocks go up 6 7 8 10% now that these stocks have corrected 30 40 50% from their peaks and some of them have corrected by that extent in just two or three months for a first time investor sir you mentioned that most of the participants in the market have come postco have not seen a cycle like this they've not seen a 20 eight they've not seen a 20177 2018 kind of a midcap small cap meltdown that they have seen what would your advice be to such kind of an investor who would look at a past performance saying and then you see the kind of fall that you see it's very easy to get disheartened right what would your advice be to such kind of a participant and a sector like psus now do you think that a 30 40 50% correction has now made valuations healthy no see I I know psus have been disaster for 15 years 20 years from 2005 they were the commanding Heights of India in the stock market they commanding Heights 40 % of market cap used to be psus then became literally nothing wealth creation was literally zero in 22 23 and then this thing happens and it was crazy I the it was completely unreasonable where the valuation had gone 3p4 Co India I think was low single like 2 3 4 p 40 50% Roe pay out of 9 10% yield so clearly as if the coal is going to stop I me like next 12 months and we he was not able to supply coal even now they shortage of C so I think the markets have the tendency of the whole crowd somehow there is a problem with I mean any markets that they come together and they make a theme very very unpopular it's a myth so so you uh I mean the guys who made money obviously the guys they didn't buy into PSU they had PSU somehow and then the uh whole thing reversed and they made money now you deliberately go and buy PSU at a some good price I don't think that is going to make money I mean you have to find your own way of making but it's not a generic call that uh you can make money out of psus you know I as a house we have benefited a lot some of the psus that we had with conviction for a very long time I think they ultimately turned out to be very very good lot of credit to the government for bringing in the operational efficiency the capital effic efficiency that over the last couple of years that has been brought in and which is reflecting in the market but at the same time the whole I mean it's not a sector because I think companies are in different kinds of businesses but again there wasit there were Pockets where because of the low floating stock a lot of euphoria and maybe the narrative got ahead of the fundamentals prices reached a level where there was no way incremental money could have been made so it's good to see some bit of correction there now let me welcome another set of stars who've joined our G we have Mr nesa from Kota KMC and sarin thank you very much for joining in we want to hear more from you as well but if I could just extrapolate that question on PSU horman's question do I think a larger issue that a lot of investors mutual fund investors would be confronted with today they're seeing the value of their Investments erode now human tendency would be that even if I don't need the money my God I'm you know yesterday I was up you know 50% on my 2year return or whatever and today I'm up only 30% tomorrow it's 25 % so the tendency seems to be should I just book profit right now so n what's the advice that You' want to give to this very genuine question that I think a lot of mutual fund investors would be having today that should be book profit because uh because you're see you're seeing the value of your portfolio fall you don't necessarily need the money but you want to feel smart like I've preserved my gain right and then you after that I mean you pay tax now you put that and then maybe you wait for the correction and it's very very difficult I think all of us over the years we have heard that we have told people that it's the time in the market may sound like cliche but it's the time in the market not the timing I think none of us have been able to do that and I don't think easier said than done yeah stop let me give you a nice quote here you know patience is bitter but fruits are very very sweet oh nice that's so you know I mean you have to bring patience to investing you can't be always alltime high and all the correction has to be in my account isn't it that's what the so some who's going to take the correction I think I I'll give you an example so someone called me and said that uh so you know investor retail investor who's also into direct stocks said that I've bought HDFC bank because it's supposed to be a long-term fundamental good bed right and it's falling right now but it'll do well so that's my thought process I said good for you congratulations the same person uh sort of calls me again saying I sold HDFC bank because I was hearing that they have some structural growth issues next couple of quarters will be difficult I sold it but now it started after this qu so that's the kind of trap that people get into even though they want to be you know fundamental investors I just want to war people about one thing so in February 20 we were here uh when we T that high of 12,000 on Nifty in next couple of weeks we fell to 7700 by 24th March or so because of the covid and from April onwards what happened that as Market started recovering we started getting redemptions because people had this psyche that I've seen the fall from 12,000 to 7700 as it went to like 9,000 and 10,000 people thought let me lock in my game because still we are hearing about Co and whatever the impact on growth but all of them have missed out on the big rally over the next three years it's very difficult to time it just one thing I want to ask we not in a 2 was it 18 or 19 when midcaps and small caps kind of topped out and that and then we didn't do anything for the next 34 18 yeah 18 uh right it was January of that year Rami any thoughts we will only know in hindsight but that was a top and then for next three four years absolutely nothing happened right four years mid camps and small camps I don't remember so actually I can't say anything but do you was I was fully invested at top of the 2008 and at the bottom also I was fully 2008 20 2019 right 19 you're saying okay then I was fully invested and I've done well so I can't figure out why the that is the answer that's the answer that's how long-term wealth is made any any thoughts no I mean the investors will become more discriminative I think as I said earlier that in last couple of whatever qu everything goes up good news not so good news I mean good result not so good result but Market just goes up the stock just goes up I think it'll chain now and people will start looking at the fundamentals again which is a good thing even now after the correction there are there part of M and a small caps where there's still fraud I mean even at this valuation they haven't become so attractive that you just go close your eyes and go and and buy I think so it's it's good that Senate is coming back uh R you spoke about you know identifying a tail vnd and I believe you've turned very bullish on the new businesses you you personally invested into zepto your private Equity owns swii your F owns zamato uh what's what's the view there and I'm going to you know toss it to one of your colleague as well who's going to manage the digital strategy for for Mu AMC but your first win then I'll go to him as well so I I fundamentally believe that uh when anything goes digital see we have seen it very closely in 87 the total transaction in stock market was 200 cres per day today and settlement was t plus 15 and we used to labor to settle life today it is 400 lakh cres per day there is no industry which has gone at 2 lakh times in 30 years yes okay so that is possible purely because of technology and digital okay and it's still growing at in fact Regulators are scared of the growth of the industry so so much so so anything goes digital it just goes wild okay okay so now grocery is going digital your food delivery is going digital you everybody is a consumer I mean you can see in your own house there's actual consumer Behavior change and intense and these are not small categories there are trillion dollar categories and how many guys three guys at early stage so you have and it's not only about them all the digital business whether it is in payment whether it is in uh Insurance whether it is in uh navigation or whatever you say anything goes digital I mean how many times you see your map when you're traveling for half an hour absolutely otherwise who's going to tell you where is this particular place so I think the use of digital so my sense is that like what is happening in us and China and all I think uh the number of digital companies in India are going to explode uh sector after sector and I don't know which one will go 100x but if you have a full bucket of 152 companies the entire bucket will go by maybe 25 30% in next 10 years let me go to one of your colleague vun is here vun thanks for joining in uh you've done a lot of work on the digital space uh if you want to just quickly you know run through your thesis and some big numbers on why you feel it's it's a opportunity for the decade yes sure see Ram G has covered most of it yeah but we are seeing digital coming in every each and every sector right uh we saw these Trends in the US we saw these Trends in China India just lagged behind but we have all the digital pillars in place today so when we are looking at next 10 15 20 years we know that digital companies are going to emanate from each and every sector various constructs be it b2c B2B or even B2 b2c and that is something that we are you know banking on right now that this is a big Tailwind like just just like what you ram talked about and possibly this is going to be the biggest Tailwind across sectors over the next 10 15 20 years how big could be the time when when you talk about you know total L Market how big could be that market on the digital side So currently the numbers that are coming out are you know currently we have about 8% of 8% of our GDP as digital and very quickly over the next six years it's going up to 20% and it's not going to stop there you can imagine you know this penetration is going to continue to happen can this happen R 20% of GDP coming from the digital companies I it looks like big but compounding is always very mesmerizing particularly 10 years 20 years what it can do okay you want to add anything else absolutely I think it's quite fascinating that we are seeing so many new companies smaller companies which are gaining scale phenomenally and we're very excited for the next you know few years we'll see many many more new companies coming out and and get listed uh exciting times for us okay much you I want to take that point forward actually the fact that you mentioned the penetration that is growing exponentially when it comes to Digital two other sectors which are in similar categories not digital exactly one is financialization of savings that you just mentioned the number of demat accounts the way it's growing exponentially but the penetration is still not as to that level that you would think okay it's a massive sector same for insurance but insurance even after so many years it's not managed to reach that level do you think uh AMC's or the this financialization of savings as a theme would be a faster scaling theme compared to Insurance when it comes to penetration exposure yeah I see the uh uh it's a savings product this one is entire savings product so what we have seen in uh broking and all I mean the moment it has gone digital uh the the the ease of boarding and participating has become far easier and see one broking account uh say my broking account could be worth hundreds of crores okay but my insurance account will be only that much how much premium can I pay so that opportunity size is my total savings if I'm worth th000 crores my entire th000 crores is avable for trading and wealth management and asset management all sorts of things but insurance is not like that so Tam gets uh slightly distorted when it comes to entire Capital Market and that to digital you know we're talking all the big stuff and that's uh that that's what we should do right look ahead and uh but slightly near term I want to just put ask you R how much more huh how much more on the downside you think downside yeah 7% Market is fall nift is fallen from highs how much more will we be will we be higher by by uh by next Diwali you think next for sure for sure we will be higher but how much higher I don't know but these things are see first thing is there nothing to do with India it is to do with what happened in China right China did a stimulus and people got excited about it right they might again be disappointed what is there and then people will run from there to here correct the my problems are my own earning so that we must address correct we can do nothing about China's stimulus correct so I think that's a temporary phase we have to pass this time and whatever just think the day on which uh F become neutral or positive on India that's then what happens but do you think it's possible we are in a bit of a time per ction phase we we Flatline for a while it's it's possible don't ask me like a chartist I don't know I've never seen ch right CH you ask him he's the guy actually he's the guy I mean he spends 24 hours looking at charts no we we will bring him in as well but you think the market does nothing for a while I mean the the go- go markets we had the euphoric markets for the last many years yeah that we kind of temper a little bit pace of 15% is on Last 5 Years is only 16% return let me tell you Nifty return is just about 110% total for 5 years that is about 16% yeah I don't have any problem with saying that it could be 100% up in next 5 years and in in next 10 years for sure it'll be Forex so Market is going to double yes in in five years in next five years so you that is my expect that's my expectation amen who knows all right uh I guess with that uh you know we'll wrap up this part of the conversation thank you so much for joining in and you know shedding some light uh you know in in the f full of lights on how we're looking at wealth and our investments thank you so much navit and RAM for joining in and giving us all of those insightful ideas for wealth creation and investing in the new summer thank you very much for joining in well with that it's a wrap on this edition of the Diwali special We wish all of our viewers seasons greetings wish you a very very happy and prosperous Diwali thank you for watching oh