저자: MooreMoney채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 짐 크레이머의 중국 투자 회의론을 반박하며 알리바바를 계속 강세로 보고, 저가 시 추가 매수까지 시사한다. 크레이머 발언 요약: 2021년 과외 산업 사실상 국유화 이후 중국을 '투자 불가'로 규정했고, 시진핑을 마오주의적 독재자로 보며 자본주의가 중국에서 죽었다고 주장했다. 찰리 멍거가 알리바바에 투자한 것을 두고 '잘못된 견해'라고 평했다. 진행자의 반론: 중국 정부가 과외 시장을 규제한 것은 저소득 가정의 과도한 사교육비 부담과 사회적 불만을 줄이기 위한 것이었다고 설명했다. 미국도 ITT Tech, DeVry 등 영리 교육기관을 FTC가 규제한 사례가 있어 중국만 반자본주의라는 논리는 일관성이 없다고 지적했다. 성장과 안정 논리: 중국이 2035년까지 GDP를 두 배로 키우려면 부의 창출과 투자자 수익이 필요하고, 이를 위해 대외 갈등 회피가 중요하다고 주장했다. 크레이머의 '고위 인사에 대한 혐오' 논리는 근거가 약하다고 평가했다. 알리바바 전망: 크레이머도 알리바바 사업은 잘 될 것이라고 인정했지만 주주 수익으로 이어지지 않는다고 했다. 진행자는 자사주 매입으로 EPS가 증가하면 주가가 낮아도 밸류에이션이 크게 떨어진다며, 2026회계연도 주당순이익 약 20달러, 현 주가 기준 PER 3~5배 수준을 제시했다. 매수 전략: 진행자는 크레이머가 가격이 충분히 낮아도 매수를 거부한 점을 비판했다. 알리바바가 주당 100달러 아래로 하락하면 추가 매수를 고려하겠다고 밝혔다. 리스크 인식: 중국 투자의 위험(위구르 인권 문제, 규제 리스크, 공산당 개입 가능성)은 인정했다. 다만 이를 이유로 투자를 회피하는 것은 감정적 판단이라고 봤다.
다듬은 글
jim cramer probably the most famous stock market personality and regular contributor to mainstream business news networks like cnbc for close to 20 years just came out and said charlie munger's view on china is misguided and you guys already know that i'm a huge bull on alibaba while simultaneously acknowledging both alibaba's weaknesses and the inherent risks of investing in china and i absolutely love when smart people disagree with both myself and at least in this situation charlie munger as well as it relates to investing in china and that's just because i believe that it's important to have a healthy debate with opposing viewpoints as i just might learn something and identify personal biases so let's break down jim cramer's arguments and see if it's any different to any of the fud that we've been hearing in the media almost every day so smash that like button and subscribe if you're new you're watching more money let's get it all right guys so jim cramer was on cnbc about five days ago when he stated that once again china is uninvestable and let's take a step back here you guys may not remember but five months or so ago when the for-profit educators were de facto nationalized in china this is what jim cramer had to say about investing in china from that what do you make of what's going on in china this morning uh and some of the i mean the china stocks are just getting whacked and what that really means is is china going after companies that have too much power are these by the way people have questions about some of the accounting of these companies in china is that what's happening they're trying to they are killing us i mean they know that they that we own these stocks and they have they're showing no mercy it does seem like when you turn a profit company into a non-profit company what you're trying to do is make it so that there are rich people who are just stripped of their wealth it's very malice it's it's uh stalinist we tend not to see that uh i think these are very serious violations that make us realize that capitalism is not alive in china and we we kidded ourselves that we thought that the party was somehow going to want to join uh the rest of the world in in being capitalistic they they're not this is a dictatorship and we're beginning to wonder i question every one of those companies that's on that list any one of them could be vulnerable it's time you gotta go you can't own these stocks i mean the party may decide tomorrow that uh that alibaba is charging the people too much so i don't know i andrew i think it we're discovering that they were communist but they were communist all along so from that you can see that jim cramer has concluded that capitalism is not alive in china anymore and i understand that the de facto nationalization of the for-profit tutoring industry in china really bugged a lot of people and i won't defend how they went about doing it as i'm not an expert in the situation but i will say that i did understand from china's perspective that poor parents should not feel like they have to put their kids into these types of programs to keep up with the wealthier ones and if you looked into what was happening poor parents were going into debt to pay these fees for these programs that promised dubious results at best there was growing discontent and unrest amongst the population from it and i'll be real with you guys a guy like jim cramer really sounds like a hypocrite when he concludes that it's china that is the one that hates capitalism if this is in fact the reason why he turned sour on investing in the country because although he is a lot more experienced and i will admit he's a lot more intelligent than i am even i with my smooth non-wrinkly monkey brain remembers that we went after the same practices here in north america with the ftc targeting devry and itt tech which is no longer in business and that wasn't even that long ago obama was in office so now if you stay at home from school and watch the prices right or judge judy you will no longer see those itt tech commercials on tv anymore so i really don't understand how someone would take that example and conclude that the government of china is the only one that hates capitalism and thus is going to destroy the wealth of a nation should we not also apply those standards universally now i understand that these are not perfect comparisons but my point is that i personally don't buy the argument that's really what i'm trying to say here so now that we're all caught up on his dislike of investing in china five days ago he was asked about how he felt about charlie munger taking the other side of the trade and investing in china specifically in alibaba and here's what cramer had to say you said that uh bon king jeffrey gundlach who just had a comment that china is uninvestable that you agree with him and i wanted to ask you about that because this morning we learned that charlie munger has invested in alibaba uh obviously alibaba's come down in price and but he is making a bet on china what do you think well look there is a sense that the middle class is going to do better in china so therefore they'll buy more on alibaba my problem is is that uh president xi there's a really good article by the way we can read a couple good articles uh but uh but just we get the feeling um frankly that he's a communist that he's more maoist than we thought that he may be uh the first real totalitarian dictator in a long time and he he's going to be someone who uh doesn't really care about capitalism and in that backdrop i mean can you imagine a present one that feels like that here and then uh trying to buy stocks i mean i just think it's impossible okay so he believes that the middle class will do better and thus alibaba will do better while simultaneously believing that he does not like investing in china because communism plus reasons and bless his heart but the interviewer recognized that kramer did not really address the question as it related to charlie munger so he pressed him again and here's what kramer had to say this time so but look charlie munger is on the other side he's clearly saying that alibaba's got a future and a much brighter future you think that's just a misguided view uh this talks down a lot but uh and certainly anything can bounce but yes i think that the course of history is changing i think we're trying to avoid uh a very bad cold war i i think that president xi is complete contempt for us uh complete contempt for shareholders and very much contemptuous of rich people whom he thinks threaten his power okay so first of all he finally answered the question he does believe that charlie munger is misguided but then he went on to provide his real reasoning behind his views and his views are just a belief system if he feels like we're headed towards a cold war with china and the chinese leadership hates rich people and wealth creation so basically all of the baseless media noise that we've been getting for a while now and here's where i go after the logic i'm sorry to tell you mr kramer but if china wants to double their gdp by 2035 two things have to happen one some wealth has to be created i know it's difficult to understand but you can't grow your economy without growing the pocketbooks of those that invest to help grow that economy rocket science i know two in order to grow your economy you need stability and at all costs you need to avoid any conflicts that would have material impacts to the nation such as a cold war or even an all-out war with the us and let's be real guys i don't remember a single moment in my life where there hasn't been saber rattling amongst superpowers but the truth is is that both populations will suffer greatly if we stop working together i've said it before on this channel and i'll say it again we have to play nice in the sandbox together that goes for the us and that goes for china so he finishes the interview by admitting that even he believes that alibaba will do well but concludes that it won't mean any games for shareholders here's jim cramer on that point why look alibaba's going to do well jd is going to do well uh baidu could do well but but that doesn't mean that their stocks can translate into doing well uh i think that the pres president xi does not like capitalism and he's a return to the old style so the logic here is that alibaba will do well but the shareholders won't but one problem with that explanation is that if alibaba is doing well and those cash flows are coming in and alibaba just continues to buy up the shares but the share price continues to go nowhere the company effectively just becomes cheaper and cheaper because the eps continues to increase organically and from the share buybacks so it's very possible that by fiscal year 2026 alibaba will be earning around 20 a share as implied by jim cramer when he stated that alibaba will continue to do well and by extension of that logic that would mean that based on the current share price which is not expected to go anywhere by jim cramer alibaba will be trading in the mid single digits between three and five times earnings look i like jim cramer and i once again will say that the guy is much smarter than i am but this logic is beyond lunacy and makes me an even bigger bull on alibaba now let's move into the last part of this interview and here's where i think the interviewer might actually be brilliant because he asks a follow-up question that completely in my opinion exposes jim cramer's nonsensical bias here it is is there a price though at which you would buy into any of these companies i mean we're looking at a screen right now do that why would i i'm just asking the question i mean you you can make the argument that at some point the price is is low enough that that that the risk that it continues to go lower is reduced i well i i could do that but that's irresponsible of me to do that i can't recommend buying stocks in a communist regime that is a totalitarian dictator who's not just human rights but is doing much more than that to be able to solidify his power i think it's irresponsible for me to come out here and say you know what at 108 it's fully discounted that the man is a terrorist dictator i can't think at 97 it doesn't matter that he's killing a lot of people and that he's retraining people and there's concentration camps and don't worry about i i'm not going to do that i'm not going to do that i just i can't do it so his answer is why would i do that in some mumble jumble about dictatorships and concentration camps look i agree and i'm not turning a blind eye on the treatment of muslims in china that being said it looks to me that jim cramer just doesn't like investing in china for emotional reasons as opposed to factual ones i side with monger here and i'm not selling if anything i'm gonna go further into this name if it crashes below a hundred dollars per share 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