저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼이 우버 주식 3,330만 주를 매수해 주가가 약 7.7% 상승했다. 발표자는 연초부터 우버를 2025년 최고 매수 종목으로 추천해 왔고, 할인현금흐름(DCF) 모델상 적정가치 약 $112로 현재가($75) 대비 저평가라고 주장한다. 민감도 분석에서 베타 2.0을 제외하면 대부분 시나리오에서 저평가 또는 적정 가치로 나온다. 선행 PER 17.5배로 S&P500 평균(21~24배)보다 낮다. 테슬라 CEO의 자율주행 과장이 우버 할인의 원인이라고 본다. 유명 투자자 발언에 휘둘리지 말고 직접 재무제표를 검토하라고 권고한다.
다듬은 글
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman just bought up 33.3 million shares of Uber stock and as a result Uber shares are up 7.7% or were up 7.7% earlier when I did the research for this video. Of course, I'm happy about that. I rated Uber stock as my top stock to buy here in 2025 and I made that rating on January 1st.
So, it's been over a month now that I've been recommending Uber as the best stock to buy here in 2025. So, I'm happy to hear that a billionaire investor Bill Ackman has just made a similar conclusion in seeing the value in Uber stock. So, in this video, I'm going to review the insights into Uber that was made by Bill Ackman, the comments he made, and overall just provide my viewpoints on what it means when an investor like Bill Ackman makes a purchase of Uber stock.
And I'll go over my bull case for Uber, share again with you my intrinsic value, and my valuation metrics to reiterate my reasoning on why I think Uber is such a great stock to buy. here was the news this morning that investor Bill Ackman snapped up 33.3 million shares of Uber stock. The market loves it, of course.
Market usually loves when a big name investor like Bill Ackman or Warren Buffett or someone similar makes a purchase of a stock because the market seems to believe that these investors know what they're doing and I'll talk a little bit more about that a little later. So, he went on to say uh Bill Ackman did.
He said Uber is a highly profitable and cash generative growth machine under CEO Dara Khosrowshahi. And he went on to say that how he believes that Dara Khosrowshahi is doing a great job managing Uber's business, and that's been my bull case, too. If you recall in January when I made this recommendation, one of the points I made, one of the reasons why I was bullish on Uber stock is because of the management, is because of the excellent job that Dara Khosrowshahi has done with Uber.
That's been one of my reasonings for recommending Uber, and it's good to see that Bill Ackman feels the same way. So, Ackman's track record for spotting undervalued winners has Wall Street buzzing. And his belief is that Uber is still trading at a massive discount to its intrinsic value, and that's driving optimism for Uber's stock.
And so, I agree with him. Uh let me share with you my discounted cash flow. So, my discounted cash flow valuation model, if you remember, um I this was updated on December 29th, and then I released the video shortly after this, and I said, "Look, Uber is incredibly undervalued. It's a great business.
The reason why it's undervalued doesn't make sense to me, and so I'm recommending it as a top stock to buy." So, Uber's intrinsic value per share is $112 only $75 even after today's bump. So, I did various scenarios as well. So, I looked at Uber under six different scenarios, under scenarios where the growth rate, the long-term growth rate is slower than I projected in my base case, and even in those three cases where the growth is slower, the scenario values are still above the current market price.
And I also uh did a scenario analysis with various beta. Beta is a measurement of riskiness, and so I thought maybe I'm underappreciating the risk of the business. The current beta is 1.34. So I evaluated with three different betas, and at beta of 1.5, which is higher than the 1.34, the scenario value is $96, still above the current value.
In a beta of 1.75, the scenario value is $78, so a little bit above the current market price. And only in the scenario where the beta is all the way up at two, compared to 1.34, would the shares be overvalued, the scenario value being 65 and the current market price being 75. So in six out of the seven scenarios I modeled for Uber, the answer was that it's either fairly valued or significantly undervalued according to its .
So if you don't like discounted cash flow models and you prefer to look at forward price to earnings multiples instead, Uber looks undervalued according to this metric also. It's trading at a forward PE of 17 and 1/2, which is less than the average stock in the S&P 500, which is trading at forward price to earnings between 21 and 24.
So Uber is undervalued according to this metric as well. And if you look back at its relative valuation going back a year, it's still near the lowest this stock has traded for all year. And I like the reason why it's trading at a cheap valuation. I like the reason. And the primary reason why it's trading at a cheap valuation is because of the hype that Tesla has created around driverless car technology.
It's made and the CEO is so effective at convincing people, regardless of the reasoning of the statements or the over promises and under deliveries, doesn't matter. The market just seems to absorb everything Tesla's management says, Tesla CEO says, and just believe it to be fact. And so, that had created this discount for Uber.
And so, I thought that to be a great opportunity because I've observed Tesla's management team going back 8 years, and they've consistently over promised and under delivered. So, I can discount their statements like when they say we're going to have driverless cars on the road next year, I can take that as just, you know, boasting, right?
Just, you know, being optimistic. The reality is it's probably not going to be anywhere near uh threatening Uber's business in the next year, maybe not even 3 years, maybe not even 5 years, right? The reality, if you just look at the probabilities of the outcomes, it's probably not going to do that, right?
They can go on and make those claims and generate publicity and create excitement. And so, that's an opportunity here for Uber investors. That's what I noticed. And it drives an interesting comparison here, right? Uber stock price is up today because Bill Ackman made this, you know, statement saying that he believes the shares are undervalued according to the intrinsic value, and he believes that the management team is strong and Uber's free cash flow will continue to grow.
Those are basically the same things I said in January when I made this recommendation as for Uber as a top stock to buy, right? And when I published the video, the stock price didn't jump because Parikshit Datta Vosian said that Uber is a top stock to buy, right? No movement. I have no influence on the market.
I'm too small to make a difference, right? But Bill Ackman says it and the price jumps, says the same thing pretty much that I said, and the price jumps by 8%. Is the business worth 8% more because Bill Ackman suddenly owns it? I don't think so. And so, it's similar on the opposite side, where Tesla CEO says that, you know, they're going to have driverless cars, and that it's going to be a multi-trillion-dollar business, and they're going to take the whole market.
And that created a decrease in Uber's stock price, right? And there was no uh valid I don't think the reasoning behind those claims by Tesla CEO was valid. I don't think the probabilities of that occurrence was anything above 10%. I think the probability of Tesla taking a trillion dollars in market revenue in driverless cars is like a less than 1% probability.
But still, Uber's stock price declined significantly as a result of those comments from the Tesla CEO, and now Uber's Uber's stock is bouncing higher as a result of comments from Bill Ackman, right? Both I don't think should have been happening, right? I don't think Uber's stock price should have fell as a result of Tesla CEO talking up driverless car technology, and I also don't think Uber shares should be rising as a result of Bill Ackman making these comments about Uber and revealing his stakes in Uber, right?
So, opportunities rise because of these situations, and I felt that it was an incredible opportunity for long-term investors for Uber stock because of how undervalued the shares had become as a result of those overblown fears of driverless car technologies. So, really interesting here, interesting statements, and these, one way or the other, Tesla CEO or Bill Ackman doesn't influence my decision-making, right?
I go into the company's details, look at the company's prospects, evaluate the numbers and the qualitative factors, do all the research myself, and come to a conclusion myself on what I believe the shares are worth. And what this CEO or that CEO says, or what Warren Buffett or Bill Ackman or Elon Musk or Cathie Wood, those are irrelevant to me in terms of my decision-making process in buying or selling a stock.
And I would recommend all of you all to do similarly, in that just ignore all of those people that are making these comments and claims and all of that. They all have their own reasons why they're making these comments and statements, and it doesn't always have to be that they believe the shares are undervalued or overvalued.
They have their own reasons, right? They're in a different world uh from you and me, or you and I. So, just do your own due diligence, watch videos, but don't make decisions based on what I say or what uh anyone else says. Open up the financial statements, look at the numbers, evaluate the prospects, and come to conclusions on your own. .
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