저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 9월 3일 오스틴에서 Cybercab 공개 행사를 연다는 소식이 나왔으나 주가는 3.6% 하락했다. 발표 내용은 이미 주가에 선반영된 상태이며, 테슬라 PER 161 대비 자동차 사업 적정 PER 약 20으로 나머지는 자율주행·로보택시 기대치가 반영된 것이라고 주장한다. 라스베이거스 허가 물량 5,000대 중 2,500대 출시 계획은 실제로는 어려울 것으로 봤다. 행사 후에는 기대치 하향과 로봇 등 새 테마로 관심을 돌리는 패턴이 예상되며, 주가 영향은 중립~소폭 긍정으로 전망했다.
다듬은 글
We have important news for Tesla investors: the company will unveil its production " Cybercab" at a presentation in Austin, Texas, on September 3. Of course, this is exactly the product and service that Tesla investors have been eagerly awaiting, so this will have huge implications for shareholders.
Let me discuss some of these details in this video. quev for the top 10 deals to buy now. So, electronic invitations for the September 3 event first appeared on the X network among Tesla watchers this weekend, and late Friday night Tesla confirmed the event in a post. However, Tesla's share price unexpectedly fell on Monday, despite confirming the presentation of a two-seater robo-taxi specially designed for this purpose; Tesla shares fell 3.6% after this announcement.
So, a little later I will talk about the share price. So, the cybercab will have neither a steering wheel nor pedals. This is Tesla's first vehicle built purely for autonomous driving, designed to run the company's full self-driving software . My hope was that perhaps these cars would initially have a steering wheel and pedals, and could be sold to customers as regular cars, which could eventually become robo-taxis once the company gets regulatory approvals and so on, to some extent, protect itself.
This was discussed a bit during several conference calls with Wall Street analysts. The company's management was asked about this, and they did not rule out such a possibility, and these discussions have been going on for about eight quarters. I was hoping they would still have a steering wheel and pedals, and this could be the $25,000 model that Tesla had been promising investors for years , though it later asked them to ignore it and focus on self-driving car technology.
I thought this might be a model they would sell to customers for $25,000 with the potential to become a robotaxi in the future, but it looks like that won't be the case. So, that's interesting. Furthermore, these shares trade at a premium based on the assumption that Tesla will be able to transform its robo-taxis fleet into an autonomous ride-hailing network.
So these stocks are trading at a premium because of the assumption that the company will do this. Is n't that right? So, this is not something that will benefit Tesla stock investors. This is the reason why Tesla stock is trading at its current price. So, this means that the company must do this to justify the current price.
This is not something that will lead to a price increase. This is what should justify the existing price, because Tesla has been pushing this idea to investors for years, and the price has risen, reflecting investors' agreement: "Okay, if you're going to do it, we'll believe you." "We will buy shares today because we are confident that you will implement this technology." I wanted to show this slide to demonstrate the scale of this premium valuation, the extent to which investors have already priced this technology into their expectations.
So, Ford and GM trade at forward price/ earnings ratios of 7.3 and 5.8. These are mostly narrow-profile automotive companies. You know, they've recently invested in energy storage technology, similar to Tesla, but their valuation is based mostly on auto sales. So, if you think about Tesla's business, the part that's valued as the automotive business has a forward price/ earnings ratio of, say, 10 to 20, because Tesla's automotive business is better than GM and Ford.
They are much more effective. They have a larger market share in their category. Their operating costs are better controlled. It's simply a better automaker overall, so it deserves a higher rating compared to Ford and GM, even if you're only comparing cars. OK. So let's say that would give Tesla a fair value , just from an auto business perspective, with a forward price/ earnings ratio of 20, right?
Let's give them a credit of trust. But Tesla 161. 161. So if the auto business is only part of that, the rest is based on expectations for self-driving cars and robo-taxis. All of this is already included in the estimate. So when they report on things like this and actual results emerge, it's nothing new.
This adds nothing to the company's cash flow estimates. This is something that investors have already been counting on and relying on for several years, right? Elon Musk and Tesla were promoting this and telling investors to focus on this, to look only at this. Therefore, this is already reflected in expectations.
The probability of success from an investor's perspective is approaching 85-90% at this point, just looking at the valuation. So to me, that partly explains why the share price fell 3.5% despite this announcement. The volatility around investments and actual tangible results is because much of what Tesla actually reports is forecasted well in advance, right?
When Elon Musk has an idea, when he comes up with something new, he goes out and writes about it, talks about it, predicts it long in advance. So there's nothing that's unexpected or positively surprising when the company finally brings it to market, because it was advertised in advance. This is something Tesla has done fantastically well to maintain that premium valuation, continue to engage with investors, and focus on the next exciting thing.
By the way, I recently did a report on this too. Tesla got the largest quota for a permit of 5,000 robo-taxis in Las Vegas, but the company said it plans to roll out about 2,500. And in my video, when I was talking about this, I said that 250 would be a good result for Tesla next year. I don't think they'll actually release about 2,500 Cybercabs in the Las Vegas area.
And it also depends on whether they have Tesla employees in the passenger seat, as they do for most of the cars in Texas they test and most vehicles everywhere they test. Perhaps only a small fraction of all these cars actually drive on the roads without a Tesla employee inside. So imagine how expensive it would be for Tesla to put 2,500 cars in Las Vegas with Tesla employees in each one, and of course they have a command center where they keep an eye on all of those cars.
This is getting very, very expensive. So, I don't think Tesla will actually produce that many cars in the Las Vegas area. So the next thing I would expect as an investor from the upcoming Tesla Cybercab event in September is a lowering of expectations. Tesla previously told investors that it would be able to supply them at such a low price that it would be able to offer rides for about 20 cents per mile and produce them for less than $25,000 each.
So I expect Tesla to update these expectations and temper optimism. And I base this on Tesla's history of raising expectations about what they can achieve in the long term, telling investors that they can do these big things, but when it comes time to do them, they say, "You know what? We really tried.
We tried our best, but it's really impossible. So we really can't do it. So instead of 20 cents a mile, we think 40 or 50 cents a mile is more realistic. We don't think we can make them for $25,000 like we promised. We think $30 or $35,000 is more realistic. So expectations are being revised because the time to market is getting closer, the deadline is coming .
Expectations are going to be revised, but that's normal for Tesla investors. I don't think these cost adjustments and cost per mile adjustments are going to negatively impact the stock price; it rarely happens. Because at the same time, when Tesla makes these estimates, when they revise things and saying, "Well, it's not going to be as great as you expected," they're great at diverting your attention to something else.
They'll start talking about robo-vans , which are different from cybercabs; that's another product that might come out in the future, or robotics, right? I wouldn't be surprised if you heard more about robotics during this event. Maybe robots will help produce cybercabs in the future, which will lower the cost later, but the cost will be higher initially, right?
So I expect a variety of predictions for investors in the near term: lowering expectations, acknowledging that we have n't met our goals, but going forward -- giving very optimistic goals that the market is likely to take for granted and not lower. And so the overall impact on the stock price is probably going to be neutral or maybe even positive.
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