저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴은 9월 2일 실적 발표를 앞두고 있으며 AI 매출이 2026년 560억 달러에서 2027년 1000억 달러 이상으로 성장할 것으로 예상된다. VMware 인수 후 영업이익률은 44%로 회복 중이고 ROIC는 20.3%로 WACC를 크게 상회한다. 포워드 PER 20은 과거 범위 하단이며, DCF 적정가 506달러 대비 현재가 396달러로 27% 이상 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 알파벳의 AMD 협상 등은 리스크 요인으로 언급했다. 실적 전 매수보다 분할 매수를 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Broadcom is forecasting revenue growth of 84 % when the company reports quarterly financial results in early September. Additionally, Broadcom predicts that revenue from AI in particular will grow from $56 billion this year to over $100 billion in 2027. So, investors are asking me if they should buy Broadcom stock ahead of this investor update?
Let's , Broadcom plans to report quarterly financial results on September 2, 2026. Shortly after the markets close, between approximately 1:00 PM and 1:30 PM, Broadcom will release its quarterly financial results. Looking at the business in the long term, you can see this tipping point in revenue. Of course, they also acquired VMware.
This also helps increase revenue, but I will point out that Broadcom is an efficient buyer of businesses. They have no history of overpaying and subsequently writing off assets because they overpaid for them. They've been pretty good managers of capital for years, and you've seen their revenue jump from about 18 billion in 2017 to 75 billion in the last 12 months.
And in 2027, they predict over $100 billion in revenue from AI alone. This is not even taking into account business software , which is growing more slowly than AI . Of course, Broadcom's most prominent relationship is with Alphabet. This helps the company create and develop its TPUs, but recent news has emerged that Alphabet is in talks with AMD as a potential partner to help create TPUs starting in 2028.
So if Broadcom loses this deal or if Alphabet allocates a smaller percentage of its budget to Broadcom to build TPUs, it could be a serious negative development. I'm watching this closely . This news appeared just a few days ago. So, Broadcom's management team said that once the VMware acquisition is complete, their operating profit margin should return to pre-acquisition levels, and they're demonstrating that right now.
You saw operating margins fall after an acquisition, which is common . Companies have increased costs during acquisition: due diligence, consulting fees, etc. And then, as they work out the deal, integrate the company, make the necessary changes, and bring in new talent, the profit margin grows again if they made an effective acquisition.
And as I mentioned, Broadcom is pretty good at this. They have good acquisition skills and their operating profit margin is already recovering to 44%. One of the obstacles to their operating profitability, as I mentioned, is that their AI revenue is growing much faster than other areas, particularly software, which is more profitable.
So, the less profitable part of the business is growing much faster, and this creates some difficulties for profitability. Although gross profit margin is declining, total revenue is growing so rapidly that it allows operating profit margin to be maintained at least at a stable level. It does not fall as a result of this change in the business structure.
Return on invested capital has been volatile over the past decade. But at 20.3%, it significantly exceeds the company's weighted average cost of capital and continues to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if the return on invested capital approaches 30% if the company's revenue meets projections for the next few years.
So it's interesting that Baidu.com's valuation is not overstated. I've liked it for this whole year, maybe a year and a half, I would say even two years, because there's been a lot of concern around AI stocks . There has always been this concern, this fear that we are building too much. There is cyclical funding.
OpenAI and Anthropic are unviable because they lose too much money. So, there is enthusiasm around AI, AI companies, and AI stocks. But this enthusiasm is offset by a lot of worries, right? Many people have expressed their concerns that AI is a bubble that is about to burst. At the same time, there are others who are optimistic about AI and are ready to invest everything.
I find this two-sided nature useful because it allows for a certain moderation. This adds some discretion to the creation of these assets. Imagine if it were n't for these skeptics, these investors who are raising concerns about cyclical financing and stability. These hyperscalers are already spending hundreds of billions of dollars, approaching a trillion.
Imagine what this scale of development would be like if it weren't for these concerns. So, there were certain restraining factors. It wasn't something like "all on board," and that, so to speak, held back the valuations of some of these companies. Broadcom trades at a forward price/ earnings ratio of just 20.
Isn't that right? This is close to the lower end of the range in which the stock has traded over the past few years. Normally, a business showing growth rates like Broadcom, with this level of profitability and competitive advantage , would be valued more expensively, but due to all the concerns about risks, its valuation is not overstated.
So, I also analyzed the value of Broadcom using my discounted cash flow model and calculated a fair price of $506. The current market price is $396. So, comparing the current market price to my fair value estimate, I predict a growth potential of over 27% for Broadcom shares , which I expect to be realized over the next 12–18 months.
So I rated Broadcom as a buying opportunity. I myself own Broadcom shares in my portfolio. Therefore, I have set a "buy" rating for these stocks with a fairly high level of confidence. As for whether you should buy these stocks before or after the investor information update, I would say it depends on your asset allocation.
If you already own Broadcom shares, I would advise buying additional shares after the financial results are announced. If you don't already own Broadcom shares but want to have them in your portfolio, you can do one of two things. You can split the purchase in half: purchase half of the planned volume before reporting and half after, or purchase the full volume immediately before reporting.
I believe the valuation is quite acceptable to buy shares before the reporting is published . As for whether I see more potential for upside or downside after the report, I see more potential for Broadcom shares to rise than for them to fall ahead of the results. So, on August 17, 2026, I reaffirmed my “buy” rating with high confidence on Broadcom.
And the question of whether to buy before or after the investor information update depends on your personal portfolio and risk appetite. Purchasing the entire planned volume before a reporting event is a risky strategy. It has greater profit potential, but also carries more risk. Splitting your purchase into two parts—purchasing half before the reporting period and half after—is the lowest-risk strategy for accumulating assets around the reporting period because you are dividing your risk in half.
You share the risk of lost profits, and you also share the risk of a decline if you buy everything before reporting. If you already own Broadcom shares before the earnings report, you already have access to potential upside, so I would buy after the report to protect yourself from excessive risk if you invested all your money in one asset before the results were released.
By the way, if you want to learn more about AI stocks, I will be live streaming Nvidia's financial results on August 26th after the markets close, at approximately 1:15 PM or 1:30 PM Pacific Time, depending on when Nvidia releases its report. We'll learn a lot about the AI industry when Nvidia releases these numbers.
This will have huge implications for many AI companies, including Broadcom, but it will be exclusive content for channel members. So, if you're interested in joining this live stream, click the Join button below and learn about our channel membership program.
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