Interesting News for Micron Stock Investors | MU Stock Analysis

요약 보기

마이크론은 최근 5거래일 약 11% 상승했으며 연초 이후 240% 이상 올랐으나 고점(약 1,250달러) 대비 낮다. 선행 PER 6.27로 저평가 구간이라고 봄. 2027~2028년 메모리 공급 증가로 인한 가격 하락과 실적 둔화 우려가 있으나, 본인 추정 적정가 1,487달러 대비 53% 상승 여지를 제시. 2028~2029년 데이터센터 수요 정점 이후 피지컬 AI(자율주행 기능 의무화, 로봇 수요)가 다음 성장 동력이라고 주장. 현재 매수 의견 유지.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. So, one of the reasons why Micron shares have risen almost 11% over the past five trading sessions is that the company held a conference call with Wall Street analysts and discussed in detail the overall outlook, including the supply and demand situation in the memory market, strategic agreements with customers, as well as its production plans for the next three year.

02. You can see that Micron shares have been trending upwards over the past five days, rising almost 11 %. Of course, stocks have been rising rapidly since the beginning of the year. They have risen by more than 240 %, even though they have fallen from their all-time high of around $1,250 per share. Micron is still trading at relatively low valuations when measured by its forward price- to-earnings ratio.

03. It is currently trading at 6.27. And, of course, this is a result of investors being unsure whether Micron can sustain these levels of revenue and profits. Investors believe Micron will generate strong sales this year and strong sales next year. But starting in 2028, they begin to question whether Micron can sustain such sales volumes, or whether additional capacity coming on stream in 2027 and 2028 in the memory and storage markets will lead to a significant drop in average component prices and, consequently, a decline in Micron's revenues and profitability.

04. Furthermore, comparing the current market price of $972 per share to my intrinsic value of $1,487 , I still see 53% upside potential for Micron shares over the next 12–18 months. Of course, there is also significant downside risk for Micron shares due to volatility, but overall, I believe the trend for Micron should be upward as the stock still looks undervalued relative to the company's expected earnings over the next few years.

05. I see a slowdown from 2028 to 2029, forecasting free cash flow to increase next year to 116 billion, then increase again in 2028 to 147 billion; However, I further forecast a slowdown in free cash flow to $125 billion in 2025 before it returns to growth in 2030. According to my estimates, the peak demand for data centers will fall in 2028, and starting in 2029, Micron will receive profits from replacing components installed in data centers in 2023, 2024, and 2025 .

06. And starting in 2029, I expect physical AI to be the next catalyst for Micron. The company is already gaining strong positions in the automotive markets . Starting in 2029, I expect demand to increase from automakers who will implement more computing power into vehicles, equipping them with self- driving features.

07. I'm not saying that driverless cars will be available everywhere, but cars will have significantly more automated functions. So, advanced cruise control, lane change assistance, emergency braking, etc. There will be increased demand for this, especially, in my opinion, from regulators. Seeing how this technology improves safety, regulators may approve it and start making it mandatory, similar to how they once introduced seat belts, which were originally only an option.

08. They were not mandatory. And now seat belts are mandatory in every car. I suspect that some of these unmanned control features will also become mandatory. Not the entire set of functions. I don't think everything will become mandatory, but certain options, such as emergency braking , lane change assistance , and perhaps ones we don't know about yet , will become standard, which will further increase demand for manufacturers.

09. And when demand from data centers starts to slow, we will get a new boost from physical AI. And perhaps in a few years, starting in 2029–2030 , we will start hearing more about robotics, its development, and the demand for robots. I don't just mean humanoid robots. Of course, they will also create demand, but in my opinion, this is a prospect for many years to come.

10. However, the demand for manufacturing robots for factories and warehouses will begin to grow and accelerate as they assist manufacturers in these areas. So I had a Buy rating on Micron for most of the year, except for a brief moment when the price was above $1,200. I warned investors that this was a profit-taking opportunity and downgraded it to Hold when the price hit $1,200.

11. Then I upgraded it back to Buy when the price dropped to $900, and I have held that rating ever since , most recently reaffirming it on July 28th. I will reaffirm my Buy rating for Micron on August 14, 2026. And if you're interested in Micron, I suspect you're also interested in the entire AI industry, and especially Nvidia.

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