저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아 주가가 고점 대비 약 22% 하락했으나 펀더멘털 지표(경쟁, 금리, 인플레이션, 경영진, 리스크, 고객가치, 마진, TAM)를 기준으로 보면 긍정적이라고 평가. 현재 포워드 PE 26.8배, 주가 약 106달러 기준으로 PE 50배에 해당하는 약 200달러를 매도 고려 가격으로 제시. 장기 TAM 성장과 75% 매출총이익률을 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock pric has down nearly 22% off its highs and has seemingly lost the upward momentum it carried for the previous 18 months investors had grown used to watching nvidia's stock price rise steadily but recent buyers of Nvidia stock are concerned that they bought the stock too late and if they should sell now because the upward momentum is not there still other investors who bought Nvidia stock 12 months ago 24 months ago or 36 months ago are curious about when they should sell Nvidia stock to lock in those massive profits now the highlight of this video for most of you is that I'll let you know the specific price where I would sell Nvidia stock however what I find more valuable that I will share with you are the factors that I consider when making a decision to sell a stock most importantly I consider the valuation in relation to fundamental metrics like earnings and cash flow market price is less important to me than it's price to earnings or price to free cash flow I've created a framework I follow when making investment decisions for instance if a company generates a higher return on invested Capital I'm willing to pay a higher price or if the company's industry is getting increasingly competitive I will pay a lower price I'll share that with you and the price at which I will sell in this video 've created a framework for decisionmaking when I'm deciding when to buy or sell a stock and I've created a brief version of my investing framework here and I've got two categories inverse and positive and the inverse meaning when these factors increase the price I'm willing to pay decreases so for NVIDIA if its competition were to increase meaning if AMD or Intel or others start to make inroads and they start to compete fiercely against envidia offering lower prices better terms Etc that brings down profit margins in this street wide I would be willing to pay a lower price but I'm not seeing that I'm not seeing that at all with Nvidia competition is so far behind that they're not playing a factor in nvidia's profitability so I'm liking nvidia's position in this category interest rates is another factor I look at inversely that's because if Government bond yields increase and I can earn let's say 10% investing in super safe government bonds then I would be willing to pay a lower price for Nvidia stock because any stock is more risky than a Government Bond which is without risk and if you're getting higher interest rates without risk then as an investor that's very attractive to me in fact I've felt that government bonds have been a very attractive investment all year long in 2024 inflation is another Factor when inflation is increasing I'm willing to pay a lower price for stocks because when you're making Investments your goal your ultimate goal is to increase your purchasing power you want to be able to buy more things in the future when you eventually cash out of your investment but if inflation is rising that means your purchasing power is decreasing and so the prices you should be willing to pay for an investment should be lower because you want to generate a greater return on investment to make that investment and so in recent months inflation has been falling which has been good news for Nvidia stock and most other Investments as well another factor I look at inversely is management turnover I don't like to see management turnover inside companies especially at the top when I see a lot of change at the top that decreases my willingness to invest in a company I'm still willing to invest it's not a make or break decision if there's turnover at the top but it lowers the attractiveness it lowers my willingness and with Nvidia you're getting a superb management team with Jensen hang at the top the founder who's been there for over two decades I like the management situation at Nvidia and lastly with the inverse are risks of course if risks are increasing the price I'm willing to pay for an investment is decreasing and I haven't seen risks increasing for Nvidia stock in fact I've seen risks decreasing for Nvidia stock in recent months now here are the positive factors meaning when these improve I'm willing to pay a higher price for any investment and that is the relative customer value now this measure is difficult for some companies to make especially those that are businessto business you don't get to experience the value but you can see it through other factors for instance if you see a company's Revenue increasing rapidly that's a good sign that it's offering good value to its customers otherwise customers wouldn't continue increasing their spending with the company with Nvidia I'm seeing very strong customer value and that customer value actually increasing because customers like alphabet uh Microsoft Amazon are clamoring to get their hands on nvidia's products nvidia's products are sold out for most customers and so that's great evidence that Nvidia offers excellent customer value now whenever I talk about customer value I always bring in unit economics because it's easy to offer great customer value if you're willing to absorb losses on the bottom line I can provide you a $10,000 product and sell it to you for $100 and you would be very happy and you would want to keep coming back to my business right because you're getting $10,000 in value for just $100 but I would soon go out of business because the unit economics are not favorable they're not sustainable so when you're looking at customer value and you notice great customer value you're next check should be unit economics does the company generate profit margins while delivering excellent value and to answer that question with Nvidia the answer is a resounding yes nvidia's gross profit margin came in at 75% in the most recent quarter and the company for a long time has generated gross profit margins closer to 60% so it's unit economics are absolutely excellent combined with a great customer value this is A+ in both categories in my opinion for NVIDIA the next thing I look at positively is the total addressable Market opportunity how big is the market opportunity for the company for how long can it continue growing before it hits a ceiling and for NVIDIA this has been increasing exponentially right just a few years ago it wasn't even competing in the data center accelerated Computing space this has only been in recent years that it's been operating in this industry and this industry just in recent years started growing by the tens of hundreds of billions of dollars in fact if you look at statista they expect the market for artificial intelligence to grow to 826 billion by 2030 that will be up from $184 billion in 2024 so this Market will grow quickly and rapidly and will continue more likely Beyond 2030 as well so that's also a plus for NVIDIA and improving and lastly macroeconomic growth for prospects if growth prospects for the economy worldwide are improving then that makes an investment more attractive because increasing economic activity means more people more businesses spending money means profits increasing worldwide for nearly every company this is the only area of the positive factors that has not been great in the last two months I would say macroeconomic growth is slowing down we've seen slower job growth in the US we've seen increasing unemployment and we've seen a little bit of a Slowdown in macroeconomic growth that's the one area that hasn't been great in recent months okay so now that I've spoken about the factors that I consider when making an investment decision let's move on to the other side of this equation which is the actual price the market price I would sell Nvidia stock given its current position in all of these factors so what I'm going to assume is that all of these factors remain constant and what price would I sell Nvidia stock meaning tomorrow none of these factors have changed but Nvidia stock price jumps at what price would I sell given all of these factors remain constant and to make that decision I will look at the current market price the forward PE ratio okay so let's take a look at these where I'm getting these numbers from right now Nvidia stock is trading in a forward price to earnings ratio of 26.8 and its current market prices down 21% off the high and it's trading at $106 per share now I've had some questions about the forward price to earnings ratio and how my forward PE calculation for NVIDIA is lower than what some of you are getting some of you are calculating a higher forward PE ratio let me do that calculation for you right now so you lose that uh curiosity so I'm getting my forward EPS number from Yahoo finance next year EPS for for NVIDIA is $41 that's what's expected for NVIDIA in earnings per share next year so if we do that calculation a market price of 100 $16.93 divided by the forward one-year PE of 26.625 And1 so if you look at the forward oneye fiscal year 2026 earnings per share expectations for NVIDIA at $41 you multiply by the forward PE of 26.625 so that's the forward EPS I'm using to get this calculation or that's the forward EPS calculation that y charts is using that I'm accessing here so then at what price would I be willing to sell Nvidia stock at I would say the market price of 200 if the nvidia's market price is 200 I would be saying that it's time to sell you would if nvidia's market price jumps to $200 let's say two days from now and none of these other factors have changed you'll likely see me make a video saying that it's time to take profits in Nvidia stock because at a market price of 200 with the same forward EPS expectations of $41 you would be paying a forward PE multiple of 50 for Nvidia stock which I would feel like a good time to sell and take profits so that's the price that I would consider selling Nvidia stock now if you want to learn more about my investing framework I recommend joining as a member of my channel where I will have exclusive videos describing my investing framework
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