Should Investors Buy Micron Stock Before Earnings? | MU Stock Analysis | Semiconductor Stocks

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마이크론은 최근 주가 하락 후 AI 수요와 HBM 점유율 확대로 실적 개선이 기대된다는 분석. 3분기 매출 68억 달러(전년비 대폭 증가), 4분기 가이던스 76억 달러 상회 가능성 제시. 다만 설비투자(CAPEX) 확대와 과잉공급 우려가 주가 부담. 선행 PER 6.8배로 역사적 저평가 구간이라 주장하며 9/25 실적 발표 전 매수 가능하다고 판단. 개인 의견임을 명시.

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01. Micron September 25th 2024 the stock price has down considerably in recent weeks and investors are hoping for a rebound from the manufacturer and seller of memory and storage for electronic devices of course investors are kicking the tires of this beaten down semiconductor stock wondering if it's a buying opportunity or a value trap more specifically investors are curious if they should buy Micron stock before it announces earnings on September 25th I'll answer those questions in this video I'll also discuss reasons for micron stock price decline why is it falling and what investors should look out for in the upcoming earnings release so let's zoom in on ts latest quarterly investor update was for Q3 and this was on June 26th and in this report the company said that robust AI demand and strong execution enabled Micron to drive 177% sequential Revenue growth exceeding our guidance for Q3 we are gaining share in high margin products like high bandwidth memory and our data center Revenue hit a record high demonstrating the strength strength of our AI product portfolio across dram and nand we are excited about the AI opportunities ahead and we are well positioned to deliver a substantial Revenue record in fiscal year 2025 so this does not sound like a company whose stock price should be in Decline right this does not sound like a company that's struggling but there are reasons why the stock price is declining and I'll share them with you in just a little while now Revenue in the latest quarter jumped to 6.8 billion that was up from 3.7 billion in the same quarter the prior year now that's one of the reasons why the stock price is down is because it's still recovering from that cyclical bottom in its industry right in the third quarter last year the company generated just 3.7 billion in revenue and reported a $ 1.9 billion loss on the bottom line 1.9 billion dollar loss on the bottom line so it's not that far removed from that cyclical bottom and investors are not quite convinced that it's in recovery mode and the recovery will be longlasting those are some of the concerns the bigger concern or the biggest concern in my opinion is the capital expenditures the company said investments in capital expenditures were $ 2.06 billion for the third quarter in 2024 and that's a large percentage of Revenue to be investing in capital expenditure and this has been a trend increasing for Micron Technology and likely to continue the management team saying that the reasons for this increase in capital expenditure is to capitalize on this demand they see this Market growing both of their markets both Dam and memory they see those markets growing by double digits for the next several years so they want to capitalize on that and they're making Investments to capitalize on that so that's coming also as governments in the US are encouraging that investment incentivizing that investment with billions of dollars in Grants and lowcost Loans to help facilitate the increase in investment in semiconductor manufacturing trying to onshore as much as possible of semiconductor manufacturing Supply the US government is not happy that so much of the manufacturing portion of this industry happens outside of the United States now us companies have a great share in the design of semiconductor chips but not a large share of the manufacturing of these chips so the US government wants to gain a greater share of the manufacturing side of the business and they've made significant Investments to that end Micron is capitalizing on that saying okay we'll take you up on that offer we'll build two new facilities one in Idaho I'm sorry one in I think it's Idaho and one in New York to benefit from these incentives and others as well right Intel is building expanding Manufacturing in the US Taiwan semiconductor even as expanding Manufacturing in the US Samsung and more are taking advantage of these incentives to build and add manufacturing capacity at a lower price than they would have to without these incentives so for the fourth quarter investors should look for the company to deliver 7.6 billion in revenue and 61 cents in earnings per share for the upcoming quarter now given the data I've seen incoming since the company made this forecast I would look for micron's Revenue to beat expectations here and I would look for the earnings per share to be at or around expectations maybe even below expectations but I do expect Revenue to be better than what the company forecasted for the fourth quarter nevertheless if they hit this target of 7.6 billion for Q4 that would be a considerable improvement from the 4 billion that the company reported in the same quarter last year also in the same quarter last year the company delivered a loss on the bottom line of $1.4 billion or a131 per share so that would be a meaningful Improvement interestingly the company spent $1 billion in capital expenditures in this Q4 last year I suspect that to be double or more in the Q4 this year and I suspect manag after seeing Market responses to their capital expenditure plans I suspect them to talk a little bit about it and try and assuage investers to convince them that they're not spending out of control they're not getting ahead of themselves they're doing this responsibly they have demand for the production they're planning they don't expect to oversupply the market and they have options to delay or extend these spending requirements and so that's the area I suspect Micron needs to talk a little bit more add more transparency convince investors get investors on board with their capital investment plans so that investors will be willing to pay a higher price for this stock as it is the valuation is the lowest it's been in a very long time Micron 6.85 3 which is ridiculously cheap for a company with its prospects heading right into that cyclical rebound benefiting from the rising effectiveness of AI this stock in my opinion should be higher and that's partly why I have Micron stock rated as one of my top 25 stocks to buy right now I last updated that recommendation on August 28th so to answer the question I POS should you buy the stock before September 25th I think the value uation is cheap enough where you can buy the stock before September 25th typically I caution investors not to buy ahead of earnings because stock prices are more volatile but we have enough time between now and the earnings release and the valuation is cheap enough where I think there is a margin of safety to account for the increase in volatility surrounding the earnings release so this is one of the Investments where I think yes investors can buy before September 25th I think the risk versus reward is in favor of investors buying Micron stock of course this is my opinion only and for informational purposes onl