저자: JoeTee · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어가 연초 대비 약 26% 하락 후 DA Davidson의 매수 상향(목표가 175달러)과 엔비디아 파트너십 등으로 반등. 팔란티어의 모델 교체 가능성이 AI 모델 기업 대비 경쟁우위라고 평가. Joe Tee는 주가 130달러대에서 리스크 리버설(풋 스프레드 매도로 콜 스프레드 매수) 전략을 제시하며 1월까지 150달러 상회를 기대.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. Let's focus on the Palunteers graph. This software development company has effectively come full circle in the past year. If you look at this name, it's within about one-tenth of a percent of where it was at this time last year. Of course, this doesn't tell us that this stock is somewhere around 20% below its lows, which it reached just a few sessions ago, and somewhere around 35-40% below its highs, which it reached in October- November of last year.
Let's invite our guest. You know her well, Marley Caden. She is the host of Trading 360, which will be up next , as well as the Market on Close program here on the Schwab network . And Marley, Palunteer, is just an exciting company, not just in terms of trading, but also the projects that it's working on, the space that it's in, add volatility, it's kind of a recipe for a name for a new generation of investing.
This, I mean, I feel like we've accidentally fallen into a state of FOMO ( fear of missing out). We're just doing it on the wrong show right now. But you highlighted some of Palunteer's movements. I mean a 26% drop this year alone after three consecutive years of triple-digit growth. So I mean, it's worth looking at the price dynamics of this stock.
Extremely volatile, but today is a good day. We are trading almost 4 and a half percent higher after DA Davidson upgraded the company. They now have a "buy" rating, as opposed to the neutral rating they had previously. New target price is 175. That's higher than 165. Both were higher than we are now.
We are at 13148. The company is said to have increased in its valuation because its earnings have increased significantly and the stock multiplier has appeared. This gives investors what they call a gift just in time for the 250th anniversary of the United States of America. They say they believe Palanteer has several competitive advantages over all the other software companies that are becoming increasingly prominent thanks to artificial intelligence.
They believe these latest developments show why customers will use Palunteer as a way to orchestrate AI models . And I want to break this down in more detail because it's a bit complicated. Now the company can replace the AI model under its solution, which eliminates the biggest threat to its business model, namely the notion that companies could potentially turn to anthropic or open AI to solve their problems.
The DA Davidson analyst says it's a better option for enterprises right now than open AI or anthropic. He says that Anthropic's recent choice to take a confrontational stance with the US government has led to the government imposing restrictions on AI models and Anthropic withdrawing its own model from the market.
If a corporate client were to build their business directly on these models , disruptions to their business could be catastrophic. He goes on to say that, conversely, a company that has built its business on the orchestration tool that Palanteer uses will experience only a minor transition, as Palanteer will simply replace the AI model that underpins its solution.
So they argue that this ability to replace the base model will help it take business away from OpenAI and Anthropic. So you're not just exposed to one model and any potential threats to it. Hmm, but as you pointed out, they were in the headlines. They were extremely volatile. Most recently, yesterday, their shares jumped about 8% the day after announcing a strategic partnership with Nvidia, as well as the disclosure that the president has a significant stake.
This collaboration with Nvidia focuses on deploying AI models for US governments and critical infrastructure. They also added to this positive news that they have expanded their commercial agreement with Surf Air Mobility and a contract to supply the US Army with its Foundry platform. Investor sentiment also lifted somewhat after learning that the president owns at least a million shares of Palunteer.
Uh, but even with that in mind, Alex, as you pointed out, you know, Palanteer's fundamentals are strong, but their timeline is chaotic. They were trapped in the SAS apocalypse. Dan Ies says this is not a functional narrative, an SAS apocalypse. He doesn't think the Palunteers should be there. Overall, recent sentiment has been bullish.
The last five analyst actions were either repeat buys or upgrades . Yes, the shares have come full circle. I think it's just so fascinating. Marley Caden, I appreciate it. And if there's anyone I know who can navigate some volatility , it's our next guest. This is, of course, Joe Tee, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund.
Hey, Joe, I hope you're doing well . It's been a long time, my friend. Um, you had an interesting task of considering this name from the example of a deal. How do you do it? Yes, thanks for inviting me, Alex . Yes, you're looking at this graph. You saw the full cycle, as you mentioned. Eh, I like the story of growing up to his multiplier.
Uh, if you expand this chart, you can see the parabolic growth over the last 5 years, where it went from, you know, less than 7 pounds to $230. So it was really fast growth, and Ford's PE multiple is over 200–it's just too much for the company. And, obviously, there was a compression after that. Now, as we sit here, we're in the 130s today.
Uh, maybe below 120 recently. Uh, we see a name that has more potential. And yes, that name was in the news yesterday, like a lightning rod interviewing their CEO Alex Karp. Uh, and just to be completely, uh , transparent, there is a political element here. Uh , there's a narrative about right versus left.
Er , and the CEO seems to be raising his flag on one side. I don't know if it's necessarily a flawless strategy that's a win-win situation , but I think the company, um, certainly has, um, um, um, software, a very important narrative for the AI industry . And he absolutely insisted, contrasting himself with Anthropic in that interview.
And I think that resonates with a lot of companies here who are just saying that they can still own their own data. Um, Anthropic's choice, Palanteer's choice. So it's a very interesting story, just watching all of this. Um, I've been following this campaign for a long time , been in it for a while now.
So it's very, um, very interesting to watch this story unfold. And so, obviously there are risks, there's political risk, there's just AI risks, there's just this name that's very popular to protect, um, your money and you, and invest in this name, um, risking less capital. This is how I would like to play.
And I would consider it a risk reversal. Alex, I am considering selling a put spread to finance the purchase of a call spread. It is planned to sell the put spread 120-100 to buy the call spread 150-200. For me, it's very cheap. As of this morning, entry into this deal costs about $1.70. If I bought 100 shares of this company, it would cost me $120,000.
This, um, deal will let me get in for $1,700. Of course, it's much cheaper. The maximum damage is about $18,000, as opposed to a total of $120,000. And of course, I'll get my upside opportunity if we get above 150 by January. Good news. Joe Tay, always a pleasure and I hope you have a wonderful weekend.
We will meet soon. Joe TK is, of course, the portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor fund.
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