저자: StevenSocco,BobLang · 외국인
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반도체 워치리스트 패널. Socco는 AI 토큰 비용 하락과 엔터프라이즈 AI 수익화가 본격화되고 있다고 보며 Nvidia Vera Rubin 채택과 Palantir·Nvidia 협업 등 실사용 사례를 강조. Lang은 SMH가 상승 추세(고점·저점 상승)이며 거래량이 양호하고 Applied Materials 목표가 상향 등 종목 확산을 근거로 강세 입장. SMCI는 회계·칩 밀수 조사 이슈로 부정적 평가, Dell 대안 선호. Intel 실적 기대와 Micron 장기계약 언급도 포함.
다듬은 글
It's time for our watchlist panel. Let's delve into semiconductors by looking at the history of chips right now. And we have Steven Socco, semiconductor and deep technology industry analyst with Hyper Frame Research, and Bob Lang, chief options analyst and founder of Explosive Options. Hmm, do any of you feel comfortable, as I just mentioned, for example, we had SK Hynix and also Samsung with large investments in South Korea, but also AMAT and SMCI benefited from that to some extent?
Hmm, Stephen, have you thought about any of this sensational news where SMCI is taking a negative view of this investigation into potential chip smuggling that Bloomberg is reporting? Well, I think one of the things that's really worth thinking about is, um, I saw some of the controls that a company like Applied Materials has in place to make sure that something like this doesn't happen.
And so I think, um, it's always hard to comment on something that's sensational, but I would like to leave some space between those two names, just because I know that Supermicro has had some concerns in that area. The company tried very hard to resolve them, but at least I didn't see anything that would link it to Applied, to this.
Yes, and Bob, also to you, if you are uncomfortable commenting , please don't , but this is breaking news and I thought I would give you the opportunity to comment if you have any thoughts you would like to share on this matter. Yeah, so I'm glad to see you, Nicole. So, I'm looking for alternatives to SMCI and I had to consider Dell.
Dell is a competitor, and Supermicro faced some problems or difficulties last time. I think they had some audit issues. You know, it was a decisive breakthrough for Dell . They attracted a lot of business, a lot of customers, and so on. So I would be optimistic about Dell in that direction. I wouldn't waste any more time on SMCI if I were in this business right now.
The shares are really undervalued. This isn't the first time, and, you know, usually where there's smoke, there's fire, and I think SMCI is on fire right now. Yes. Good. Well, Bob, I mean your point about Dell, and, you know, since we're in breaking news mode, I want to go to all your comments about chips.
Dell's intraday shares are currently around session highs. They recently went up to 414 as it was a breakout. So, there is some sense here, as you said, SMCI is going down , and Dell is going up. Okay, let's move on to some of the conversations that we're ready to talk about, and Bob, let's talk about how you feel.
You are talking about bullish sentiment and some technical aspects. The money in the options market shows that people generally still believe , and there are strong stocks to remember. You are looking at some good news in power equipment. Bob, tell me more about your optimism, I guess. Well, listen.
I mean, if you just look at the SMH chart, for example, it's in a bullish uptrend, with higher highs, higher lows, which is the tech textbook definition of an uptrend. It has had good strong volume for the last 6 and a half weeks. Again, reaching higher highs, higher lows. Of course, this attracts more money to these stocks.
It's not just one or two names. It's not just Nvidia. It's not just Broadcom. You see names like Marvell and Intel shining brightly now. You see other companies like Applied Materials, which you mentioned, got a price target increase today to $750. Scott, he still has some way to go. Qualcomm posted some great earnings numbers last quarter, and last week they came out and significantly forecast growth for their next few quarters and the rest of the year.
So there are a lot of names that could succeed. I think SMH, the next semiconductor, has recently slightly exceeded expectations. I think it was due to a slight setback. But look, these pullbacks are being aggressively bought by falling buyers. And one thing I realized a long time ago, Nicole, is that, um, the best trends don't give you a chance to get in on the action.
So I think SMH is one of those that meets that criteria, as are many other stocks. Yes, bearish buyers come into play and reaffirm your bullish thesis. Stephen, you also know...By the way, you both talked about Intel and how we're waiting for Intel data and that can really tell us a story. You mentioned Qualcomm, Stephen, you...that was compelling.
Nvidia mostly determines the development plan for this group, but you said the reward comes from monetization, capital expenditures. You want to see it in products, customers, revenue. Give me some examples. Do we see this already? Do you feel confident? I think it's one of those things when you think about how long we've been talking about Vera Rubin from Nvidia.
I mean, we've been talking about this for a few blocks now. And we actually saw it installed on Coreweave for the first time last week. So think about how long we've been preparing for this big step forward in lowering the token value, which Nvidia has been talking about for a very long time. I think when you start looking at monetization, there's been a lot of talk lately about people being surprised by how much AI costs when you're actually paying for a token.
And so, I think what we're seeing now is that a lot of the work that's been done over the last two years to drive down the value of the token is actually starting to pay off. And I think that's what I'm really looking forward to, especially given Gentek's accelerated development of artificial intelligence.
Anyone who has used Gentek AI for anything real doesn't want to go back to the past. So I think that's where we'll start to see the real benefit, whether you're using Gentek AI for something you couldn't do before because you weren't going to make people look through old emails and so on, or you're using Gentek AI to create something new.
I think we're really starting to see specific use cases, and I need to see how this starts to migrate into the enterprise sector , because that's where all this valuable contextual data is stored. You look at the announcements between Nvidia and Palantir about using this contextual data inside these giant companies or government agencies, that's where a lot of the value that's yet to be uncovered lies.
Yes. Good. Um, you know, I'm thinking about memory stocks, and I know there's been some volatility in the group, but, you know, memory has regained momentum. And this was a group that you were watching for high returns, Bob. This was the group you were talking about, the equipment manufacturers. Lama KLA map research, but I'm also thinking about your comment about Intel, and you said Intel would tell us something.
Tell me what you expect from Intel. I mean, you're generally optimistic about the group, but will Intel solidify that for you? Of course, Nicole. I expect Intel to announce some lucrative deals with some partner companies, some new customers. Last week, we heard Micron announce that 14 of its 16 customers had signed deals worth over $100 billion.
These are long-term agreements. So it really solidified their place as a supplier, uh. So I think Intel will deliver some of the same results when they report earnings in about 2.5 weeks. So, uh , I expect Intel to show leadership here, against the rest of the market. Uh, they're the first, uh, semiconductor company to release an earnings report, uh, before the entire group starts, uh, releasing their earnings.
So, I-uh, I think Intel has the advantage here. Uh, first mover advantage with their earnings report, and I believe that, uh, they're going to come out and, uh , hit the ball out of the box here with some high, uh, strong earnings and good revenue growth. Yes, and look, these shares have gone from $18 to $141 this year.
Intel has grown an incredible 482% in 1 year. Stephen, you mentioned Taiwan Semi and ASML . We talked a little bit about SK Hynix and Samsung investing over $500 billion in, uh, South Korea. A quick final thought, Stephen. I know we spent some of our time on breaking news. Of course. I think what to watch out for is that these companies are full of very smart people who have a long-term vision for the AI market.
And when you see these kinds of investments continuing, I think these are the promising investments to watch. Half a billion dollars here, half a billion there, after all, we are talking about real money. Good. Nice to see you both . Steven Sapko, Bob Lang. Great conversation, really nice to see both of you. Thank you. You know, we see the stocks...
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