저자: DavidKatz · 외국인
요약 보기
반도체·메가캡 기술주는 단기 급등 후 조정 중이라 장기 관점에서 매수 기회로 봄. 메가캡 기술주는 이익배수 18~22배로 낮아져 Microsoft·Amazon·Meta·Apple·Google 장기 매수 의견. 반도체는 1·2·5년 수익률이 단기간에 급등해 신규 투자는 자제하고 과열 시 일부 차익실현 권고. 소비재(펩시·컨스텔레이션브랜즈)와 TE Connectivity, ADP도 저평가 장기 관점에서 제시.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to "The Opening Bell." I am Nicole Petallides. A few minutes before the bells ring here on Wall Street this Friday morning. A little bit of a downturn while we look at futures. Joining me now to take a look at the market is David Katz, President, CIO , Managing Partner of Matrix Asset Advisors.
Good morning. What I think is really interesting about your notes is how you talk about rotation, mag mag seven, overdoing it with the sale. But that other group, like Micron and those memorable names, maybe they were very vulnerable because their stocks went up. So it's like a Ferris wheel. I mean , in which direction should people buy technology and in which direction shouldn't, you know, it's confusing, isn't it?
This is quite confusing. Every day we puzzle over market movements, and not only in technology, but also in other industries. When semiconductors go up, that money comes from healthcare, it comes from consumer goods. So, some stocks rose by seven, others fell by five. You. We believe the key to investor success from this point forward is a long-term horizon, rather than trying to get caught up in day trading and looking at where you think the market is now and where it will be in a year and positioning yourself to take advantage of that.
So, you said, you know, in the tape, that we like hyperscalers, mega-cap stocks. These actions were mentioned in the news every day. Everyone loved them before. Now they are about a third cheaper. Some of them are selling at 18-22 times earnings, which they don't usually do or haven't done for a long time.
We think the long-term prospects for Microsoft , Amazon, Meta, Apple are very good, but you get them at great prices. So reduce your daily trading volume. I know that in the short term they may fall, but in the long term this is a very good opportunity to buy some great companies at very attractive prices.
I mean, what were you thinking yesterday about Apple having its worst day of the year or something? But, you know, based on the price increases that we saw on the MacBook and the iPad, and they said there could be more, and Apple really sold out. Is this a buying opportunity, do you think? We think so.
This is a market driven by momentum. He's on steroids. When people want to get into stocks , they push them up a lot, like you saw yesterday in Micron. And when they came out, there was no bottom. Uh, we think that if we look at this long-term perspective, Apple will eventually be a strong player in artificial intelligence.
Uh, there will be a movement towards the edge, which means you will have to buy more phones to use AI more effectively. And we think that Apple, whose stock has performed quite well, just gave back, you know, 3 months of returns in 1 day. We would use this as an opportunity. Yesterday's news about the price increase is not particularly new and should not have come as a surprise.
We know their prices are going up in terms of how much they're paying for DRAM chips, and they're just passing that on to customers a little bit. So we like Apple. Uh, a week ago, at a price of 310 or 320, we were a little less enthusiastic about it. At today's price, we think this is a very good place to start a position.
Yes, and today there was also news about Apple. Uh , you know, I'll just add that, David, so people know. Apple may now be considering reaching out to Chinese memory manufacturers to help with production. So, in a week, the stock is down 7 1/2%, but this month, uh, right now, June 26th, this month, it's down almost 12%.
So you see this as an opportunity. When you were still talking about the Micron collapse, you said this group was more vulnerable. You don't interfere in such actions, even if they have retreated a little, right ? So, we own a number of semiconductor companies and have had great relationships with them.
We are very happy with this. We wouldn't invest new money in them. Our expectations for this group going forward are much more cautious than they were, simply because they have achieved 1- year, 2-year, 5-year returns in less than 3 months and 6 months. Therefore, we do not think that now is the best time for new investments.
If you own a few of these stocks, we would aim to moderately reduce their value on days when the market is going wild . Again, you don't know that the stock will start to fall about 6 months before the peak of the business, and you only find out about it afterwards. So we think it's wise to set aside some of the profits from some of these stocks for crazy upgrades.
We would n't sell on a day like today, but rather when everyone is very excited, the stock is up 10 or 15% in a day, we would cut the value a little bit if you think the stock price will be full over the next 2 years. Many of these stocks are currently trading at 20 and 50 times earnings, based on earnings in 2 and 3 years.
And overall, the reality is that it's a cyclical business for semiconductor companies. It's either feast or famine. It's a feast now, eventually it will slow down and stocks will fall long before that. So, okay. So you're telling me that your strategy now has to become long-term because nothing goes in a straight line, that's what you wrote in your notes.
And that makes sense, and people are prepared to some extent for some volatility. You like some of these names Mag 7. You mentioned Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple. Google is there too . Do you like Google? Just for clarification. We like Google. Google is a great long-term business. And again , you get it at a price that is 22 times earnings.
So, you know, we've had a lot of discussions with investors over the years, and the question we've been getting over the years is: Why don't we buy more of these stocks? And we already own many of them. But they paid 32 times the profit. Now that they're suddenly at 20x earnings and 18x earnings , people are less interested because they've fallen.
We believe this is an opportunity. The downside, as we've said, is that when you buy something at a price that's 50 or 80 times earnings, we think that's a formula for not achieving the same success over the next 2-3 years. So, we would use a significant change in sentiment towards Mag 7 as an opportunity to grow these companies.
These are good long-term franchises and you get them at attractive prices. And importantly, there are a whole range of markets beyond technology. So, the market is really focused on technology. Perfectly. So, here's what it is . You talked about Constellation Brands. You were talking about Pepsi. And these are some of your choices , not technology.
Um, let's take a look and talk about such names. Why do you like Pepsi and Constellation Brands? So, the consumer staples group had a tougher fundamental outlook for the near term, but there are a number of long-term winners, and you get them at great prices. So , Pepsi is a really well- run company.
You get, uh, 3 1/2 to 4% dividends while you wait. The stock is now trading at 16 times earnings , after 2-3 years of struggling through the downturn, we think they're doing the right thing to refocus their business a bit, accelerating, uh, revenue growth. Uh, it's very comfortable here. This is the type of thing where when the market starts selling off the technology sector , that money goes back into consumer goods.
Uh , Pepsi will be one of the places they'll go. Constellation, uh, Con -uh, uh. Constellation Brands, uh , basically, has been going through a really tough time lately with slowing beer sales, but they're handling it. They are gaining share. They pay very good dividends. They are 12 and a half times higher than the profit.
So, if you have this long-term time horizon, you get a good consumer goods company at a very attractive price. And we think that in the long run they are the winner, uh, in their industry. And you also have, uh, automated data processing, TE Connectivity. Briefly about that, uh, let's talk about these options.
So, TE Connectivity is a technology play. They supply, uh, semiconductor equipment, or they supply semiconductors, uh, you know, for everything that goes into hypercenters and automobiles. However, the stock has seen a significant drop as there are concerns that fiber will outpace copper. We think this is a great starting point.
The stock is trading at 16.5 times earnings . They are very good at developing business. Really attractive price. We think that one day you wake up and suddenly they win one or two contracts on hyperscalers, the stock goes up 20%. So a great starting point. Uh, and another company we talked about is ADP, which, uh, doesn't really address the problems of artificial intelligence.
We believe that the company is quite well versed in AI. They are the dominant player in terms of payroll, and we don't think it's easy to go from a payroll provider to using only AI because it has to be 100% accurate. This is a very complicated business. You get a great yield while you wait, at a pretty attractive valuation.
David , thank you. Nice to see you this Friday morning. I appreciate it. Great conversation and market setup as well. Looking at the long term, David Katz, president, managing partner CIO at Matrix Asset Advisors.
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