저자: GilLuria · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴 주가는 6/3 사상최고 495달러 이후 약 25% 하락. Luria는 사업은 매출 50% 성장으로 호황이며 하락은 AI 매매의 변동성(엔비디아→브로드컴 이탈) 때문이라고 주장. 빅테크(MS·아마존·구글·메타)의 AI 투자 수익성과 Anthropic(연 600억달러)·OpenAI(연 400억달러) 매출 증가를 근거로 제시. 자체 칩 개발 흐름상 브로드컴 수혜 지속 전망. 리치 덕캣(Schwab)은 브로드컴이 반도체 섹터 대비 부진해 기대는 긍정적이나 절제된 시각이라며 330달러 지지선 위 유지 전제의 풋 매도 전략 제시.
다듬은 글
We're back on Morning Trade Live and we're looking at Broadcom's annual chart. As you can see, on June 3, the company's shares reached an all-time high of $495. But they have since fallen. The stock has fallen about 25% from that high, and is now down 3.4 points, climbing to $366 and beyond. So let's delve into the situation and discuss with Gil Luria, Managing Director and Head of Research at D.A.
Davidson, what's happening now. What's happening with Broadcom now? What do you think? I mean, they are more than 20% behind the peak that was just recently. What do you think is the story here? Well, let's start with the fact that business is booming phenomenally. They are growing a very large business by 50% and they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
But the artificial intelligence market is volatile. The AI trade started with Nvidia, then Broadcom joined, then AMD , and then the entire semi-complex and so on. And she just moves on. It's moving away from Nvidia, and it's moving away from Broadcom. That's actually a big part of what it is. What's happened recently is that Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron have all reported phenomenally strong quarters, and Broadcom just reported a strong quarter.
And by comparison, it did n't look as impressive, so the AI trade is moving further away from Broadcom. This has little to do with how well their business is doing and more to do with the volatility of the AI trade . Yes, it is definitely unstable now. And as Alex and I just discussed, it seems to have gone beyond all the hyperscalers and those who spend money in more niche places.
I'm just curious when you think we'll start to see a little more of that rebalancing, on a day like this, where you see this ping-pong match between hardware and software, and then the sevens, when everything starts to sync up again. Well, it's hard to predict, but we know for sure that big investors, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, are telling us that we are getting a return on that investment.
The market thinks otherwise, but these companies say, “Look, we’re selling data center capacity at a very large premium to the cost of building the data center. We sign these deals for three, five years and lock in that profitability, and we 'll continue to do that as long as the demand for AI continues.
And so, as their growth continues to accelerate, and if they can do so with sustainable profitability, the market will also return to these large consumers. But it all depends on how much we continue to progress in AI. The news flow is constant, but I would say the most important thing we heard yesterday was that Anthropic appears to have crossed the $60 billion per year mark, and OpenAI — $40 billion per year.
So, just these two together add up to $100 billion in actual spending on AI tools, which was zero three years ago . So, it's clear that AI is being used. People want to integrate it into their personal lives, use it at work. Companies... are buying more and more artificial intelligence capabilities.
It won't be a straight line growth, but it's clear that this technology has applications. They are willing to pay for it . These companies are willing to pay Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. And as this becomes increasingly apparent with rising revenues and nearing profitability, investors will likely return to these stocks as well.
How much of Broadcom's move do you think is related to this jalapeño announcement this week with OpenAI? I don't know, I still have that jalapeño name. I mean, it's Friday, I have sharp clues in my head, but because OpenAI is now saying that they could potentially, according to the New York Times, postpone the IPO.
Yes, OpenAI and Anthropic have a very difficult decision to make regarding their IPO. On the one hand, capital is already available and they can use it to grow the business. On the other hand, being a private company has many advantages. You're not under that much pressure to make money. You don't need to give your numbers.
You can focus more on the long term. So they are debating whether they should go public. Also, OpenAI doesn't want Anthropic to go public before them, and then they don't want Anthropic to go public before Anthropic goes public. So there's a lot of game theory here. They both just saw SpaceX fall sharply from the first day of IPO trading, so that probably held back their intention to IPO this year.
This does not mean that they do not have capital expenditures. They just raised $122 billion . They have money to spend on computing, and part of their computing spending plan is to manufacture their own chips. Well, that's a bit excessive. They don't really need to do this, but they're going down this path because they believe that in the long run it will give them an advantage or at least put them on par with Google, which makes its own chips.
And so they also want to produce their own chips, and they'll probably both do it with Broadcom. Mmm. Yes, listen, it all came down to vertical integration. That's certainly what we've seen on Wall Street, where Mag 7 is being split into two separate categories, but just give us a quick rundown of your outlook for Broadcom over the next few quarters.
I mean, what are they supposed to do? What do they have to show and say? Yes, the main issue remains the cycle. If the current AI spending cycle continues, all these big companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google , Meta, as well as Open and Anthropic, will want to diversify away from Nvidia, and the main way to do that is through Broadcom.
As long as the AI development cycle continues, Broadcom will continue to grow at the same pace, and AI trading will also return to them. Great job. It's always a pleasure to talk to you, Gil. Thank you very much for your time today. Have a nice weekend. Gil Luria, Managing Director, Head of Research, DA Davidson.
Let's now exchange that name with Rick Dukat, the lead market technician at Schwab Network. Rick, good morning. With you. Friday. Trading is down today along with the broader chip sector. Just look at the example of today's deal for Broadcom. Good. So Broadcom, you know, is a little behind some of the other names in this chip sector .
Of course, it is still a fairly strong sector that is showing more significant results, and is showing better results than the S&P 500 as a whole. But Broadcom is actually lagging behind the tech sector. You know, not just from the SMH semiconductor sector, but also from the technology sector. So to me, that means we can have more positive expectations , maybe here, but a little more restrained, a little more moderate.
So, for today's example trade, we will discuss a short put option with an expiration in July. Minus one July 17 335 330 put option with $1 credit at the time this deal was structured . It was what was available. So, in 21 days, a neutral or bullish outlook, a somewhat softer target than buying a call option outright.
In this case, all we want to do is just stay above our breakeven point and, you know, just keep the credit here. You don't have to beat the target, you just have to stay above the target. So, the maximum profit is our received credit of $1. The maximum loss would be $400 if it falls below our protective long position of $330.
So that would be roughly a risk reward of one to four, a pretty common structure that traders might look for for this type of play here. So, more on that, the odds will be on the side of that. If you look down, this area of 330-335, that's roughly the limit of the expected range of movement according to the options market here, and also the old support area here.
So, breakeven is 334, about 9.7% down, the expected move roughly corresponds to that. So, we are looking for probabilities to play here, in the support zone. I really appreciate it, Rika, as always. Thanks for putting on your tech hat at Broadcom today.
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