저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 2분기 실적이 컨센서스(EPS 3센트 예상)를 크게 상회했고 자동차 매출총이익률이 25.4%로 상승 추세임을 강조. 공장 증설로 2024년 연 200만~300만대 생산 가능성을 제시하며 적정가 약 2,500달러, 3백만대 시나리오 시 약 3,725달러로 본다. 현재가 약 1,600달러 기준 매수 관점이며, 본인 보유 사실과 면책 문구를 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Boy oh boy, Tesla just reported earnings and wow, we have a lot to talk about. Not only are we going to talk about Tesla and the S&P, but I'm also going to talk about exactly what Tesla reported, what you should be paying attention to if you're interested in Tesla's stock and whether or not I believe Tesla is a buy right now, plus my brand new target for the stock.
Let's go. First, make sure you check out the awesome pre-sale to the YouTube course that I do have available down below. So, if you want to make videos just like this, sharing your perspective, you know exactly how to do it and get up and running really fast. Pre-sale in the link down below and use that coupon code.
All right, let's go. First, there has been massive hype over Tesla joining the SNP 500. Mostly because everybody's kind of been waiting for Tesla to show four consecutive quarters of profit, including the most recent as profitable quarters. So, you have to have four consecutive profitable quarters. Then, as long as Tesla checks that box, then an eightperson committee, it's a mysterious committee, determines whether or not to include Tesla.
and that mystery committee is allowed to add and delete stocks from the S&P 500 at any point. This is leading to a lot of speculation that as soon as Tesla checks the box, we're going to hear some kind of announcement that Tesla is going to join the S&P 500 relatively soon after. Well, right now, at any point, nobody knows.
And when that happens, it's going to force a lot of index funds that track the S&P 500 like Vanguard funds or Fidelity funds, whatever, to have to dump certain shares and then buy Tesla shares instead, which will create a lot of buying pressure for Tesla. There's been a lot of speculation for that. Who knows?
Maybe it's going to lead to people taking profits when that happens. Maybe it's going to lead to the price going up. But for right now, let's talk about what actually happened. Wall Street expected Tesla to deliver around 72,000 vehicles during the second quarter. That is during the pandemic. This was down from initial expectations before the pandemic of over 120,000 deliveries.
They also expected Tesla to report earnings of 3 cents per share. Now, shout out to Elon Musk. Not only did he sell his house successfully by himself, congratulations to Elon. He saved a sweet, sweet fat commission of just a few million dollars. Congratulations, man. But he also gave us a hint on Twitter yesterday.
There was a conversation about memes and Elon posted a tweet with a picture of a bear kind of implying that the bears would be the new meme, aka, haha, bears. Tesla stock beat and smashed earnings. Well, folks, that's exactly what happened. from a 3 cent expectation. Tesla smashed earnings and showed earnings at $218 per share.
Tesla's cold hard cash went up $535 million to $8.6 billion in cash and equivalents. Now, let's take a look at the actual report. Okay, here's the quarter 2 update. Let's go through this line by line in a succinct manner. First, we have here some highlights, including look at this nice little note they slapped in here.
Four quarters of sequential profitability. Hey, S&P 500. Here we are. The next GIA Gigafactory site has been selected and preparations are on their way. Is it Austin, Texas? We don't know. They didn't tell us. They're just teasing us right now. Then take a look at this note here. Later this year, Tesla will be building three factories on three continents simultaneously.
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean they're adding three more facilities because after all, they are building a factory in Germany. They've already got the one in Shanghai that they're expanding on and then they're going to build a new one in the United States. So, I'm assuming that they're referring to this and all in all, we will end up with four facilities.
That'll be the Fremont, California facility. That'll be the Berlin, Germany facility, the Shanghai facility, and the new one. By the way, on Tesla's earnings call, Tesla did confirm that the next Gigafactory would be outside of Austin, Texas. It's going to be 5 minutes away from the airport, 15 minutes away from downtown, and it's going to be some kind of open concept ecological paradise, as Elon Musk puts it.
And that will be for the production of the semi-truck and the Cybert truck. They also expect the Roadster to be produced next year. This right here is the page that looks the most boring, but it is the most important. I was highly, highly, highly expecting Tesla to totally miss on margin. Gross vehicle margin is so important for Tesla.
That's how much money are they actually making on the cars they're selling. We already know that the average selling price of Teslas are declining as Tesla slashed prices for the S and the X5 $5,000. And we see prices uh for the Model 3 are getting reduced, but now they're selling the autopilot separately.
So, I don't know. Is Tesla turning into a Spirit Airlines or are the prices truly trending downwards? We'll talk about that in just a moment when we look at my spreadsheet and my projections. I'm going to make this as easy as possible. But right now, there's only one very, very important number that I want everybody to pay attention to.
In quarter two of 2019, when I really started more heavily buying Tesla, the automotive gross margin was 18.9%. That has steadily increased over the last quarters to 22.8% to 22.5% basically solidifying us being around 22%. At this time, Elon Musk said he was expecting margin to go up to 30% and everybody laughed at him.
I didn't believe it either and I did not use those numbers in my projections. Then margin went to 25.4% 4% and then in the midst of a pandemic when they have to spend more money on PPE, protective equipment, right, shields, plexiglass, social distancing during that time, margin went up went went to and solidified to 25.4%.
This is solidifying a margin of over 25%. And it's reiterating what Elon Musk said, which often times when we hear things that Elon Musk says, it's like, okay, dude, yeah, lofty expectations. But the proof is in the numbers here. The trend is upwards. Now, will that trend continue as maybe Tesla has to handle more servicings for their batteries and their warranties?
Who knows? We have no idea yet. Now, quick note, it's very important to mention that Tesla's margin has also in part been going up due to regulatory credits. These could be things like carbon offsets because they're creating electric vehicles and companies that produce a lot of carbon emissions sometimes have to purchase carbon credits from companies like Tesla.
Now, I don't fully understand everything related to carbon credits. Right now, this is still a relatively new thing in the whole world of energy. I have solar panels and when I bought solar panels, I was told that at some point I could sell my solar panels. So imagine if you're an energy producer, that is you are Tesla and you're making EVs, you're making solar panels, and you're doing battery storage.
You're going to continue to likely see these energy credits increase and be a part of margin. Also, there was a 1.7% decline in margin because of the shutdown that was talked about in the earnings call. So I'm interjecting this part after having listened to the earnings call. There was a 1.7% decline due to the shutdowns, but they said that was strictly because of the shutdowns.
However, this is also a risk factor because we don't exactly understand how these credits work yet, how long we could expect them to continue. We don't know how much we can rely on margin. we can only rely on this uptrend in margin overall along with Elon's projections, which we always do want to water down Elon's projections a little bit just to be a bit more conservative.
Something else that's very important to me is how much of a dominant force are they going to become in energy services. Now, solar declined 7% in this quarter, but that's because they actually stopped doing a lot of their solar installs during the pandemic. So, I give them a complete pass on that. However, the power wall is often installed by thirdparty electricians.
And you could actually see comparing the last quarter to this quarter. Their solar or power wall, those batteries, the home battery installations increased 61% from uh quarter 1, 2020 to quarter 2. Uh look at these that growth here. This is absolutely phenomenal in their energy storage sector because this means that people with existing solar panels could in theory also be adding on these storage units.
And of course, you could also get the Tesla panels. But anyway, for now, let's keep moving on with the report. Here we go. Fremont. This was really interesting because there was a period of time where Tesla was threatening to leave California. But instead, now that the pandemic shutdown is over, at least for Tesla's Fremont facility, take a look at this.
We're installing additional machinery at the Fremont factory, which is expected to increase Model 3 and Y capacity to 500,000 units per year. That's a massive amount of units per year. My goal is to get Tesla to 2 million units per year with a sweet, sweet margin. And this is a really good company to own.
We'll stay tuned on those numbers. Here we go. Tesla Shanghai is currently producing somewhere around 200,000 units. They expect to be able to get Tesla Shanghai up to a full capacity of 250,000 units. Tesla Berlin is expected to produce 500,000 units per year. These three facilities, not including the new US facility, could bring Tesla to a production potential of 1.2 million units per year.
If this next facility they build, just one more, can produce 750,000 vehicles, they would reach the potential of producing 2 million cars per year, potentially within the next 12 months, which is absolute insanity. Now, we don't know if the next facility is going to be that big. Maybe it'll be another 500ker or 400ker.
Obviously, we'll see. But they could also build another factory after that. They've got plenty of time here to build more factories. and they've got cash. Obviously, they can also raise capital if this stock keeps shooting up. Okay, we've got some more literature here. Uh their current target is delivering 500,000 vehicles still this year.
Remember, the factories aren't uh at full capacity yet. Obviously, Berlin is still still being constructed. But take a look at this. Tesla deliveries will begin in 2021 for the semitr, not production. That is a really good te tease here. Then obviously we've got photos. Why not a little bit of marketing?
This is Shanghai. I don't know why they took the picture on a gloomy day. I think it's bad marketing. This is a more well-lit photo. Cool. Model Y factory. No idea what I'm looking at, but it looks cool. Hey, you know what? Plastic over the machine parts. Nice, clean. I I I have no idea what I'm looking at.
These are just pretty pictures. Okay. Building in Berlin. Sounds good. I really like the after picture. And I wonder if they got Tesla solar on the roof over here. For now though, let's get to my projections right now. Okay, big big warning. What I'm about to show you. If you buy Tesla stock and you lose money, it's your fault.
I don't care if the company goes bankrupt, don't call me. If you are a short-term trader, make sure a you sign up for life insurance. You can get that in as little as 5 minutes in t's really inexpensive. Use that link. You could also get two free stocks with Weeble. Deposit $100 with Weeble, you get two free stocks.
Okay, short-term traders. Uh, generally also do the opposite of what I say if you're a short-term trader. Okay, here we go. This is a spreadsheet I put together. So, if it's wrong and you don't like it, that's your problem. If Tesla produces, by the way, in yellow are my assumptions. Okay, if they could produce 2 million cars by 2024, these are the expectations that I have.
Now, remember, I just showed you in the Q2 report that if Tesla produces up to potentially two million vehicles within the next 12 months because they get all these factories up to speed, Tesla is going to smash and utterly destroy the spreadsheet that I have in a very, very good way. But let's go with 2 million units produced uh and sold by 2024.
We have to assume that people are going to keep buying Teslas, which I do. I got it. I got the X. I love it. I didn't used to love it. I love it now. I'm also assuming a lower price per unit of $50,000 on average. An average selling price of 50,000. That's what I'm going with. When I first started uh researching and analyzing Tesla, it was around 56,300.
Then it went down to uh about 52 kind of towards the end. Not 50, it's somewhere around 52 now, I think. Anyway, went down to about 52. And the base Model 3 I with autopilot sells for about $45,000. So I'm going to assume since we also have more expensive cars like the Cybert truck coming out and the semi and all that, I think $50,000 gross profit per vehicle is very reasonable.
Then I did increase the margin. The reason I increase the margin, and this is really important, is remember how I told you that their margin went up to 25.4% 4% despite the pandemic and how Elon's target is a 30% margin. We're trending, we're solidifying a trend upwards on a quarter-to- quarter basis during a pandemic when they have to spend more money on social distancing and figuring out plans and getting all they're still trending upwards.
As long as that trend continues, I think it's a very it's a reasonable expectation to assume that Tesla's margin uh will be at least 26 26.5%. So, that's what I'm going with. Uh, in this analysis here, I'm going with 26.5%. This number makes a huge difference. If that number goes to 30, Tesla will shatter the spreadsheet in a very, very good way.
If this goes down because of warranty costs, it's a risk factor and it is dangerous. Okay, now here's the fun part. So, if we do the math on this, 2 million times 50 million, we get a 100red uh billion of revenue, right? Then we get the margin. Okay, cool. We have a profit of $26.5 billion. Their operating expenses tend to be somewhere around 20%.
But because their expansion in that I went a little softer, assuming that that is not going to grow as extremely, you can adjust these numbers all yourself. You could just copy what I got going on here. It's not that complicated. I used 15%. So in theory, that should be yellow uh highlighted here. Here, hold on.
There we go. Okay, there. because that's another assumption that the ratio is 15%. After a tax of 21%. This would leave Tesla with about $50 in earnings per share. If Tesla has $50 in earnings per share, then with a with a price toearnings ratio of about 50, which is very high. I understand that it's it's high for a car company.
It's not that terribly high for a tech company, especially when you have companies like Amazon and and various other large companies selling for a 100 plus as their price to earnings ratio. This is factored in here with a 50 price toearnings ratio, a $2500 uninflated price target by 2024. My opinion is that makes Tesla a buy under 2100, ideally under 2,000.
However, if Tesla ends up inflating and the market's like, you know what, we're valuing Tesla at a 100 times earnings, I think it's too expensive, but it could realistically go up to a 5,000 uh uh price per share cost, which is absolutely insane in my opinion. I even think that 50 is really high, but this gives me insulation and that's why I'm trying to buy 15% below that.
That puts me a little bit closer to 42 43 as sort of a a conservative PE ratio for the company. That's my opinion. If you think Tesla should be valued at 30 times earnings, that's fine. I'm willing to pay up to 50 times earnings for this company. And I'm these are obviously future projections. Now, today the price is around $1,600.
Might be around $1,700 when you're watching this. If you buy it at $1,600 and and the stock ends up going to $2,500 by 2024, ignore the dollar sign there. Uh then that would be about a 12ish% return over the uh the next period of time. Now, again, no guarantees. Tesla could destroy like this could all be wrong.
But here's another thing that could happen. If Tesla's able to produce 2 million cars within the next say 12 to 18 months, then realistically by 2024, it's quite possible that Tesla could produce 3 million cars. Well, if I jump over to this spreadsheet I did on 3 million cars with all the same numbers, 3 million cars produced, uh 50,000 average selling price, 26.5% margin, 15% here for general operating expenses, taxes, you know, obviously if corporate taxes go up, that's going to be a risk factor for Tesla.
Then we'd be somewhere around a 74.5 uh earnings per share amount. This, by the way, does not include insurance uh or solar, right? Insurance, solar, semi-truckss. All of this right here. This is what I just call plus plus. That's free money. That's insulation. That protects me in my opinion if my price to earnings ratio is too high.
Well, now it would be reasonable to have if they produce 3 million vehicles and sell them by 2024, it would not be unreasonable for the price of of Tesla to be 3725ish in my opinion, which means I'd like to buy it somewhere around 3,000 or under since it's obviously somewhere around $1,700 today. It seems a little appetizing if we look back into the past.
Well, remember the past. Hold on. Let's look at the past here again. When we're looking at Tesla in the past, we're looking at a shaky, uncertain company, unable to prove that it's actually able to sell cars. But beyond that, their margin used to be much lower. And Elon is proving us right or or us wrong, I guess, because a lot of people doubted him.
So, he's proving himself right that he can get this margin up. This right here is where the money is at Tesla. This is why I am long Tesla. And this is exactly why I have over 2,000 shares of Tesla, which knock on wood, it's a big part of my portfolio. Thank you, Tesla. I love you, Tesla. Uh I'm not trying to pump up Tesla.
Honestly, I wanted Tesla to fall. I made a video this morning saying if Tesla fell 5 to 10%, I'd end up buying 50 shares. I ended up buying about 20 shares right when these earnings came out because that's what I said. I said if it goes up, I'll buy, you know, about 10 shares. I Okay, I bought some more.
Fine. bought 20. That's true. I bought more than I said I was going to buy, but whatever. That's my POV. I would not recommend blindly following me. And if you're a day trader, do the opposite. In the meantime, consider checking out that YouTube course below. If you like the way I explain numbers and math and and this sort of data, consider joining the money and stock course that I have.
I uh have a ton of lectures on money in that course. And I'm currently developing the section on stock analysis. So that way I could teach you exactly how to take any company and do analysis just like this. And that course is dedicated for that. There's also a real estate investing course and some other awesome options for you. ]
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