저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나 확진자 증가에도 구글 검색 트렌드(증상·검진 검색 하락, 마스크 검색 상승)를 근거로 향후 확진세 둔화 가능성을 제시하며, 항공·외식·리테일 등 리커버리 주식에 대한 낙관을 밝힘. 사이먼프로퍼티그룹과 Dave & Buster's 비중을 늘리고 자동 매도 조건(SPG +50%, D&B 29달러)을 설정했다고 함. 다만 7월 4일 이후 급증 등 위험 신호가 있으면 논리가 깨질 수 있다고 단서를 달았으며, 투자 손실 책임은 시청자에게 있다고 함.
다듬은 글
a big shift in the coronavirus pandemic for the united states and what it means for your money whether you're in stocks real estate or you have a job and you're just wondering about the economy in general or maybe even you're thinking about getting invested also a lot of you have been asking by the way if the coupon code also works for the youtube course that's down there the one that says larry yeah from impractical jokers that one so if you want to learn how to make youtube videos from home and make money use that code uh in this video i'll also be giving you an update on the new change to the 1337 portfolio where you're going to version two but for now let's get started with the data here's the scoop we've all seen this chart we're all over this chart don't worry i'm not going to talk about this chart along this is just the chart of coronavirus cases we obviously see an uptrend some people are calling it a second wave some people are saying we're testing more and it's true we're testing eight times as much as we were testing in march and april we also know that cases and people passing away lags however can we look at charts to help us tell the future the answer is unclear but i think there are some breadcrumbs that we can look at take a look at these trends first this is a search of coronavirus symptoms on google trends what you'll notice here is we had memorial day weekend right between this area here this is where we had not only memorial day but then we had parties in this area right then it usually takes about two weeks for people to get symptomatic so we notice that right along the same time we started getting a spike in cases which the spiking cases really started taking off right around here we noticed that right before that we saw a run-up in searches in google for coronavirus symptoms and this makes sense i mean look if i have a pain in my neck uh then i google it like what is this am i dying like what's going on and this is very normal right we do that especially how readily available google is for us so this is very normal but what we want to pay attention to here is specifically this downtrend that we're starting to see take a look at this next chart right here coronavirus test this one's a little harder to read so we're actually going to go instead of 90 day we're going to go to 12 months but let me just first say when people think that they might actually have the coronavirus because they search the symptoms and they're like oh crap that like literally describes what i have the next logical thing is googling well how do i get tested what's the process what's the test like does the test hurt you know where do i go how long does it take how long do i have to wait what are the wait times right so the 90 day is a little bit harder to read but look at the 12 month look at this very very very clear i mean this is a no-brainer right here's your uptrend but look at this solid downtrend that we're seeing because right now everything in a matter you know speaking of cases looks like this this is what cases look like this creates a lot of fear this is why we're seeing the market like really uncertain what about those recovery stocks you know the restaurants the retail the airlines the cruise lines this this is creating a lot of fear around that however if we try to look at this potentially forward-looking data we are actually seeing some really good news now here's my thought when we look at this trend we can also look at a few other things we know that gallup polls finds that 94 of democrats wear masks and only 46 percent of republicans wear masks this has led to companies like grocery store chain win dixie to refuse mask mandates well yesterday donald trump tweeted that masks are patriotic and the cdc finds that if we're all massed up then the pandemic could be over in potentially as fast as three weeks in fact if you have not yet seen it here is donald trump's tweet we are united in our effort to defeat the invisible china virus and many people say that it is patriotic to wear a face mask when you can't socially distance there is nobody more patriotic than me your favorite president he's obviously wearing the mask he's sending the implication that it is patriotic to wear masks and it's in the washington post that we could find that if everyone wore face coverings the cdc thinks that the spread of the pandemic would be under control at the same time if we look at a 12-month chart for google searches for coronavirus symptoms in red and masks in blue we see that both of the searches had roughly the same peak masks were a little bit behind coronavirus but coronavirus symptoms that is but take a look at this coronavirus symptoms have virtually flattened whereas at the same time mask searches are increasing presumably because while people are seeing okay maybe now it is correct to mask up now i'm not trying to have a mask debate i'm not trying to you know talk about the scientific evidence behind masks i don't know about that i'm simply trying to figure out what projections we could make in terms of our money so if you don't believe in masks i'm not trying to say you need to believe in masts all right now let's talk about the money part i don't want to sound like a permabull i'm not telling you to drop everything and go invest in stocks in real estate right now but if you own stocks in real estate it's very possible that there may be a lot more money flowing into the stock and real estate market as recovery stocks like dave and buster's the cheesecake factory airlines and cruise lines over the next two to four weeks see a potential decline in coronavirus cases now there are some red flags here one if we see a big spike from july 4th then none of this might work like we might just continue to see recovery stocks head towards bankruptcy which would be very bad and we would continue to see uncertainty also number two if google trends don't accurately predict what coronavirus cases might be then that's bad as well so if you follow any of the suggestions in this video or implications and you lose money it's your fault don't sue me bro and again this is not to be political i'm not trying to suggest you want to vote for trump or biden i don't care i only care about helping you make money that's it but right now with these changes in trends i am optimistic more optimistic than i was about two weeks ago and now when i look at my recovery stocks they are very cheap relative to when i started trimming those holdings because cases were going up that is cases were going up i took some money off the table now i see okay there are indications that cases might be coming down again it might be time to put money into these again now no guarantees but here's exactly what i'm doing i'm putting more money back into the simon property group and dave and buster's simon property group in my opinion has less of a bankruptcy risk than dave buster's does dave and busters could go busters they could go bankrupt but what i'm doing and i'm watching these trends every single day and this is speculative in the short term and i'm going to show you how to play this and not be speculative what i'm doing is i'm setting automatic cell triggers for these stocks at 95 and 29 for dave and busters that means if simon property group goes up about 50 i'm taking my money and i'm running i don't care if it hits 100 or above i'm out of there dave and busters if they hit 29 i'm out of there that would be like two and a half xing in the stock i'm also pushing to get into real estate now more than ever before 2023 when real estate rates are likely to go up now i've also changed the 1337 portfolio there is a new link now so if you're interested in this is just so you can see these stock recommendations it's like 46 of them uh but anyway you could go to metcalvin.com 1337 v 2 use the new version what i did in the new version is i removed monster and i removed honeywell i added up work and i substantially increased the ratios for dave buster's and simon property group i slightly decreased redfin shopify and peloton and instead added one point also to tesla while again at the same time increasing the position on simon property group and dave and busters now also i i want to make this really clear i'm not trying to tell you how to vote i don't care how you vote i just care about what the impact is to our market but donald trump's tweet has a very big impact potentially on people actually wearing masks the day after donald trump tweeted that it's patriotic to wear masks when dixie which has long refused to have a mask mandate has now instituted a mask mandate and again i know there's a huge debate going on with testing but in regards to our money this is exactly what we want to see happening we want to see these trends happening and we want to see cohesion around the idea of wearing masks and those are the two things we're seeing right now if we combine that with the video that i made yesterday and all of the new stimulus money that's flooding into the economy on a monthly and weekly basis the unemployment boost forbearance which if you haven't taken more forbearance yet take it watch this video up here uh there's there's it totally makes sense that stocks could actually hit higher highs and we might not see lows again until possibly after the election we'll see no guarantees it totally depends on the fall and winter season are we going to see a second wave our mask masks actually effective at the same time are vaccine trials going to continue to show good news like the way they are is the market overvalued right now in tech yeah do you really want to put money into that that's up to you so there you have it if you're not comfortable picking stocks in like that 1337 v2 then go to medkevin.com basket that's another good opportunity for you to just invest in my favorite four uh index funds if i was going to do it and i like my allocations i've got qqq in there we got the russell in there it's great check it ouood luck out there go make some money go invest for the long term if you are a trader do the opposite of what i'm recommending here because generally when i go buy something it falls the next day thanks for watching everybody we'll see you soon you
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