저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프의 관세 정책이 기업 CEO들의 경고로 후퇴 조짐을 보이며 시장이 반등했으나, 관세 협상은 중국·우크라이나 문제에서 교착 상태다. 2s10s 금리 스프레드 축소와 S&P500 5,000~5,300 구간의 '트럼프 풋' 작동을 근거로 단기 변동성 속 저점 매수 기회를 언급하지만, 장기적으로는 관세 전쟁이 6~7월 내 해결되지 않으면 3~4분기 경기침체 가능성을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
Well, folks, the saga continues. Donald Trump is flipping on tariffs somewhatish, and you need to know why. And after I tell you why, I want to leave you with where Donald Trump sits now, and what this means for markets, why stocks are moving the way they are today, and what this means for the longer term.
So, what happened first of all to Donald Trump? Well, on Monday, we had a pretty red day in the stock market, and that was the same day that Donald Trump was reiterating his push to fire Jerome Powell. Now, he walked that back on Tuesday. That's yesterday. And yesterday also walked back some potential tariffs on China, which we heard more walk back of on today.
Now, why would he do that? What changed on Monday? What happened on Monday? Well, according to White House insiders, what happened on Monday is the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot warned Donald Trump that his tariff policies are broken and that as soon as Cinco de Mayo, that's May 5th, that's less than two weeks away.
It's 12 days away. It's sneaking up faster than an expiring coupon code for the Meet Kevin membership. The CEO said, "We're just two weeks away from starting to see empty store shelves because of your tariff policy, Mr. Trump." Not only that, but yes, while it may seem like inflation is zero, which were the words that Donald Trump used to describe the March CPI report, prices are increasing for the suppliers on the cost side.
And CEOs are using this to argue to Donald Trump, hey, you're about to cause inflation. Now, we may not actually see that inflation until June or July data. And it's not going to be clear if that's going to be short-term inflation or one-time inflation or persistent inflation. We're not going to know that until probably the second half of the year.
It could be September, October, November, and that's likely to delay the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But it seems like these CEOs got through to Donald Trump at least somewhat because now Donald Trump is saying, "Ah, we're not going to fire Jerome Powell. We just want him to lower rates sooner." But the CEOs also seem to get through Donald Trump to make him realize that, hey, JPAL can't lower rates if you're causing inflation through this tariff warfare that you're creating, even if it's one-time cost push inflation as opposed to the demand pole inflation we saw during co.
Don't so much worry about the difference between those two right now. We talked about it a bit this morning with course members, but we don't need to hit that detail now. What matters right now is that right after that, Donald Trump yesterday and today has reiterated this idea about slashing his tariffs on China in some cases by as much as 50%.
Now, since then, Donald Trump has reiterated that, but China's ripping us off and the European Union is ripping us off. So, he's kind of talking out of both sides of his mouth and this is leaving a lot of people wondering what is going on with Donald Trump. And I'm going to give you my opinion on this.
So, so far I'm trying to go through the facts of what we're hearing from the White House, but let me give you my opinion on this first. The Chinese, while yes, they're going to get clobbered through this tariff war as well and their manufacturing industry will fall further into deflation. Xiinping is a very proud Communist Party leader.
This means he is unlikely to ever put himself into a position like Zilinski puts himself in sitting in the Oval Office to get bered by Donald Trump. Instead, Xiinping is much more likely to be, "All right, I'll just go make friends with everyone else." That is the worst thing in Donald Trump's nightmares for Xiinping to do.
Go talk to all of our allies and further integrate with our allies. We're now hearing BMW is going to incorporate Deepseek into their cars. BYD is hiring market experts to expand their integration into Europe. Chinese auto sales in the first quarter are already up over 4% as a percentage of market in the European markets.
That's up from 2.8% last year. A sign that China is not only starting to infiltrate Europe, but also our other Asian and Aian countries. So Malaysia, uh, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, all of these together as in other Asian and Aian countries, right? These are supposed to be our trading partners and China is integrating with them.
So in an interesting way, yes, in the short term, China gets wrecked by not being able to import or sorry, rather export to us a lot of the goods that they're used to exporting. It hurts their manufacturers. their leader is going around to all of our friends and trying to integrate with other markets to get new customers for those Chinese factories.
So, in other words, short-term pain, long-term gain. That's the theory and it aligns with the Japanese or the the Chinese sort of pride angle. This we are going to stand for what we believe in. Now, okay, that's an opinion on what's going on with China. Now, at the same time, because I think that's happening, China isn't calling Donald Trump because they realize, yeah, okay, sure, you want to put us through short-term pain, fine.
But in the meantime, we're going to use your weaponization of tariffs and we're going to partner with other countries. In fact, we're going to warn other countries like South Korea. Fact, we're going to warn countries like South Korea and say, if you export critical minerals that we are not exporting to the United States as part of our embargo, if you export to them, we will sanction you.
In other words, we will punish you, South Korea, if you help the Americans. Note, even Elon Musk yesterday on the earnings call suggested that China is like, "Elon, are any of these critical minerals going to any kind of weapon-based systems for your Optimus robots since you need our critical minerals for your magnets?" Elon's like, "No, no, no, no.
Of course not." But that's not the point. We know Elon's not directly sending the stuff to weapons, or at least we think. But the point is, China is expressing their dominance. We have control over even things that you need for optimists. Don't screw us. So that's what China is doing. Okay, that's a fact.
That's exactly what China is doing. Now, my opinion about China using their pride to integrate with other nations aligns with my opinion that Donald Trump isn't getting the phone call from China. Now, we keep hearing rumors that negotiations have started with China, but then it we get announcements from Treasury Secretary Bessant and the White House that no negotiations have begun at all with China.
Okay. Well, which is it? Who knows? Maybe this is the art of the self deal. But so far, what it seems like is Donald Trump is walking back tariffs on China to try to well, at least he's talking about walking them back, right? He hasn't walked them back yet, but it to try to basically entice China to talk to Trump.
See, think about it like this. I like this analogy, okay? And then we're going to get to some more data here. Let's say you have a house listed for sale for $500,000. And a buyer named Donald Schmump comes to you and says, "I'm going to offer you $300,000 for your house." And you look and you're like, "Donald?
H okay. Well, here's what I'm going to do. I'm not going to call Donald Schmump. Instead, I'm going to call buyer 345. Hey, we got an offer. It's a little on the low side. They're being very aggressive. We don't really want to work with them, but we're willing to work with you. What if we give you all a discount and we work together with you?
So, in other words, they're leveraging Trump's offer to make deals with other people. Okay. Now, Donald Trump realizing this is happening because it's not a secret. Gone. All right. I'll raise my offer to 350. It's still insultingly low. It's still not a good deal for the Chinese. The Chinese probably look at it and go, "We'll keep integrating with other countries." That's my read on what's happening here.
Now, the stock market is very enthusiastic today and so is the bond market. In fact, we've seen the 210 curve spread down. And one of the reasons we've seen this is because there's potentially less of a fear of stagflation and a real economic crisis from this tariff warfare. This morning, we actually saw the 210 spread come down under 50 for a brief moment.
Although, as soon as Bessent started saying, "Ah, you know, this is just talk. We don't really have any unilateral offers that we're making to China." trying to walk back some of these sort of self-negotiations, trying to walk this back, we're seeing the the yield curve spread back to over 53. Basically, any anytime this number is over 050, it's bad.
We are just shockprone in the economy is what it is. So, and it's a gradient too, right? The more over it we go, the more shockprone we are. And the closer to 050 we are. It's it's not like an on andoff switch. It's more like a gradient. Point of this is that these tariff negotiations with China are not going well, but markets are hopeful that Donald Trump is willing to back off.
Now, this creates some really interesting opportunities in the stock market. Now, I wrote down three things that I said over the last 3 days, and I want to compare them to what's actually happening right now. So, on Monday morning, I said the QQQ are likely to reject 438, and if we break 435, we're going down to 431.
That's exactly what happened yesterday. I suggested that coreweave could run up to $40 mostly because we were at $ 35.50 and Nvidia usually steps in to buy when they're under 40. This isn't really hard. This is what we call very basic alpha. And this morning it was up at $42. So in other words, that happened.
And today I argued that most of the run of the market is probably here. The cues are probably going to reject off of 460. And after we reject off a 460, you know, the top's probably in for the day. And that's exactly what's happening. This sort of fading. Now, how can you get this sort of information?
It's really simple. Join the Meet Kevin membership and get the alpha report. We've actually released an app for course members. So, you can now get the alpha report in an iPhone app as well. Android coming shortly. So, we've got a lot of cool things coming for the membership and a lot of cool features we're adding for this app.
Uh, so anyway, go learn more about that over at meetcav.com and I'll keep you updated on the app progress and some of the cool things that we're doing. But what do we need to know fact-wise about what's going on in this market? First of all, why would markets fade? Well, one of the reasons I would anticipate that markets fade is because institutions realize that even at 50% discount, or in other words, Trump increasing his offer from 300 to 350 on that 500k house, it's still bad for the economy.
And the warning that the CEOs gave on Monday is not fading. In fact, we could see negotiations at multiple ends just aren't going as well as we would hope for Donald Trump. Remember our Ukraine war that was supposed to end within 24 hours of Donald Trump taking office or potentially even before he gets into office.
Well, let me just give you a quick update on this. And the reason I'm going to give you an update on this is because it relates directly to what's going on with our negotiations elsewhere. It shows the ability of this Trump White House to negotiate. And so what's actually happening right now? Well, right now, Donald Trump has provided a final offer to the Ukrainians.
And he's basically saying, give Russia all of the territory that they control right now, plus let them use the Denipo River that goes basically from Russia all the way through the middle of Ukraine and then out to the Black Sea. This is a critical trading and energy route, by the way. Russia now gets all of the energy resources which is is basically what they wanted off of the Dipural region which is where 90% of the Ukrainian energy uh and critical mineral production is anyway and the United States is demanding that we take control of one of their nuclear energy facilities and then split the energy between Ukraine and Russia while taking some profits for the United States as well as Ukraine needs to recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea.
They need to remove sanctions on Russia. Uh, and Ukraine maybe maybe will get some security guarantees from some unnamed European countries, but not the United States and Ukraine will not join NATO. No surprise to this, Zilinsky is like a big FU. And Trump is like, you know, this is going to lead to more death.
Zilinski, I just want the dying to stop. I want the dying to stop. He doesn't want the dying to stop. He wants the dying to continue, I guess. But he's also giving him a pretty nasty deal. So, in fairness to Ukrainians, it's a pretty ugly deal. . It them out in the link down below. And in fairness to Russians, Russians are getting a great deal here.
So it's no surprise that in the Financial Times yesterday, Russia is like, "Oh yeah, okay. We look at this. It's literally right here." Okay. Putin's offer to halt war at current front line piles pressure on Ukraine. Yes. Why is he making this offer? Because Russia's getting everything that they want.
Now, this is really interesting because the United States support for Ukraine has never really just been about Ukraine. We should know this, okay? We should all know this. This is should be blatantly obvious. This has always been a United States versus Russia proxy war. Our CIA has literally been targeting sites within Russia and going, "Hey, use this weapon here.
Go ahead, do it. It's it's good. You're going to kill a bunch of Russians." And then the Ukrainians go, "All right, fire." So, it's technically the Ukrainians fighting the war, but let's be real. The United States CIA is running this war. Okay? Ukraine doesn't have a chance against Russia without the United States.
Now, Ukraine knows that and Donald Trump knows this. And this is why Ukraine is really in a rock in a hard place. Because on one hand, Donald Trump is like, "Ah, we don't need the proxy war versus Russia, which does strengthen Russia. And on the other hand, Ukraine's like, uh, okay, well, without US funding, we're pooped here." So, they might have to lean on Europeans, which is likely what they're going to do.
But the point of this is not to pick a side and say whether you should agree that, "Yeah, that's right. We should stop funding Ukraine." That's fine. and we're going to get a bunch of comments on that anyway. That's not what this video is about. The point of this video is to show you the style of Donald Trump's negotiation.
Donald Trump loves being in power. He likes leading through fear. Okay, fear and terror. That is how Donald Trump leads. This is why you've got basically a bunch of uh Oessan just now both US and China are waiting to speak to each other. So, in other words, we still haven't begun discussions with uh with with others.
I mean, it's not a surprise. It's the same update we had 20 minutes ago, which we already provided in this video. But anyway, this style of negotiating, which is the same thing you see with, you know, law firms or or basically people just bending the knee to Donald Trump in in many different ways. This style of negotiating is what he's trying to do with China.
But that's not going to work. China's not going to go for this. Now, at the same time, there are reports through news terminals that things like this are going on. The Chinese media uh is is calling the US president's latest remarks a sign that Trump is already softening his stance on his signature trade policies.
Trump chickenening out was among the top trending topics on Chinese social media. All right, whatever. You know, again, this this could all just be and it likely is just Chinese propaganda, but what we could see is people are weaponizing the behavior of Donald Trump against China as ah he's weak. And so the Chinese are probably just going to prey on this longer.
So, what does this mean long term? Well, what it means long term is China's probably not going to call Donald Trump uh until Donald Trump backs down on tariffs himself. Now, why is this actually potentially good news for the United States? Because it actually shows that Donald Trump is willing to listen to other executives who are like, "Look, you're going to cause inflation and you're going to cause empty storeshelves and panic in the United States.
Why don't you just walk the tariffs back?" And even though that means Donald Trump might have to, you know, kind of take a hit to that ego, it seems like he's willing to do that if it averts a larger crisis. Like when we saw the bond market crisis, he instantly U-turned and flip-flopped. And so the Trump put does seem to exist.
Monday, as soon as we got to these lower levels again on the S&P 500, what happened? The Trump put triggers again as these executives visit Donald Trump and say, "Hey, hey, hey, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa." So, where is the level of the Trump put? And what does it mean for you as an investor? Well, it seems like the Trump put activates just about under 5300 on the S&P 500.
Now, no guarantees. The last time we broke 5,000, Donald Trump flipped really quickly. But Monday, we got some flipping under 5,300. So somewhere between 5,5300 seems to be the panic zone where Donald Trump is willing to flip. Now anytime the S&P 500 is over that Donald Trump seems to increase his aggressiveness.
So in English, it's entirely possible that we get some more aggression and then we fall again. And as soon as we fall to the Trump put level of 5,000 to 5,300, we bounce back up again. And we kind of just keep doing this him and hawing. Now what does this actually mean? So that's like short term, right?
tradable, right? But what does this actually mean in the longer term? Well, that's the hard part. We don't know because the economy might be able to sustain through this uncertainty that's being created because hopefully, like Elon Musk alluded to yesterday, the trade war is over by June or July, and the stock market can look past the damage that was caused.
If the trade war is not over by June or July, we're probably going to be in a recession by the third or fourth quarter, and there are going to be better deals to acquire in the stock market in the future. So, the big question right now is, do you buy the dip or not? Well, if you want to buy the dip now, you probably buy around the times where the Trump put is likely to get activated, S&P 5,000 to 5,300.
If you think, uh, let's wait for some hard data, we might be going into a recession, you'll probably get better deals if we do trend towards a recession. and the trade deals continue to drag on, which I suspect they will with China. I don't think China is going to roll at all because they're actually benefiting in the long term.
The longer this trade war goes on, the more China benefits with that integration around the global community. They're the ones pitching free trade, which is an easy selling feature right now. Now, that said, what happens in terms of getting a Powell U-turn? Well, you need to look at S&P flash PMI reports as well as ISM reports.
You need to see what's actually going on with producer price inflation. And so far, everything that we're seeing from the Richmond and Philadelphia Fed reports yesterday, the S&P PMIs this morning, and the ISM reports we've been getting is that producer costs are going up. Companies are having to take it in the margin, and it's unclear how much is going to go into consumer prices.
But until that exists, Drum Powell is not going to pivot. The good news is you can still diversify over to House Hack. Go check out my real estate how startup Houseack. I think no matter what happens in this economy, we are extremely well positioned. Check this out. You ge. You get a 5% annual yield without the risk of the Treasury market.
you diversify away from most of tariff risks because you're investing in an American real estate company with American rental properties and we buy the dip. We're going to be buying the dip again in the third and fourth quarter. Not right now. Q1, Q2 is a bad time to buy real estate. Free advice. Uh and you get to diversify away from what I think are crazy rich AI valuations in the VC market.
So check out house hack.com, see the properties we have, see some of the numbers we have. We've got over $10 million sitting in the bank right now to go buy the dip. We're uh you know, we've got somewhere around $60 million plus of real estate assets. So, we think we're pretty dang well positioned no matter what happens, especially since we have no bank debt. Learn more about House Hack over at house hack.com. Now, .
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