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테슬라 실적은 대부분 항목에서 컨센서스를 하회했으나, 시간외 상승은 트럼프의 관세 협상 및 연준 금리인하 기대에 따른 것으로 설명. 자동차 매출 31% 감소, 순이익 3.99억 달러로 크게 미달, 매출총이익 25% 감소. 에너지 마진 28.7%는 양호. 신형 저가 모델은 기존 플랫폼 변형에 그칠 가능성 제시. 옵티머스 2030년 100만대 목표를 근거로 월가 추정치 대비 과도한 기대치 경고. 엔페이즈는 배터리 중국 의존, 실적 미달로 금리인하 전까지 매수 자제 의견.
다듬은 글
The stocks are rallying. Tesla earnings just came out and yeah, they weren't good, but the stock is still up 5%. Why? We'll break that down in this video. And I'll briefly touch on what the houble hockey sticks just happened with NPA earnings. Now, a few things to know. And I just want to start with why the heck are futures pumping?
Why is the market running? This actually has little to do with earnings at all. Pretty much has nothing to do with earnings. It has everything to do with Donald Trump negotiating against himself on Chinese tariffs. That's not trying to take a stab at Trump. It's just that we haven't started conversations with China per Bessant today.
They have hopes of starting negotiations with China. And Trump is now saying the tariffs won't be zero, but they won't be as high as 145% on China. So in other words, Donald Trump since they haven't started negotiation with China and Donald Trump is saying they're going to be lower than where they are now, but they'll be higher than zero and less than where they are now.
He's basically negotiating against himself. But it wasn't just that. Donald Trump also said that the Fed should lower interest rates and we would like the chairperson Jerome Powell to be early or on time but then said that even though Jerome Powell might be late, you know, Mr. Late as Donald Trump calls him, Donald Trump has no intention of firing the Fed chair.
Okay, markets pumped immediately after this discussion. So when Donald Trump said these things, markets jumped immediately. Futures went up from basically flat to almost up 1.8% on the cues. Everything went up on this because you're undoing some of the uncertainty of investing in America by this idea that we're going to turn into like a turkey or something where we just fire our, you know, chairperson of the Fed of the central bank when we don't like what they're doing.
And so that is bringing some money back at least in, you know, the futures markets and after hours. So, in case you're wondering why there's this huge pump, hopefully that gives you some understanding of what's going on in the broader market. Now, we do have to talk about earnings. So, Tesla told us some really important and critical things today.
And I'm going to break this all down for you as simply as possible. There's a lot. I mean, it it was like we did a three and a half hour live stream. So, let me just keep this very simple for you. Okay. One of the big big big fat takeaways was that the company update was really just that Elon Musk is going to keep fighting for Doge, but he's going to walk back his efforts at Doge to maybe just two days a week, one to two days a week starting in May.
So Elon Musk says there's still work to be done, but the groundwork has been set and that he's going to spend more time at Tesla starting in May. We didn't really actually get a big company update after that. everything else fell mostly in line. However, we did get a little bit more color on this idea about, hey, what about new models?
You know, we keep getting this talk about new, more affordable models. And if you look right here, this is the snippet that you want to pay attention to when we're talking about these newer uh models of vehicles. And so what we see here is this phrase, plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for the start of production in the first half of 2025.
Now, what I wrote up here in gibberish is, okay, wait a minute, new vehicles could be cyber cab, and then including more affordable models could really just be stripped down versions of existing models. And then what I wrote is like, could somebody just give us more freaking clarity? Like, tell us what you mean.
So they don't do that in this document, but they did in the earnings call. See in the document they said, "Hey, our goal is to just to get to basically full capacity of our existing manufacturing lines." Now, this is really important because they're saying, "Look, you know, we realize we are not fully using all of our manufacturing lines.
In other words, we could produce more vehicles than we are today." And so, we want to get to 100% functionality. And so, or or productivity, I should say, would be a better way to put it, right? Output 100% productivity. So their phrase is quote, "We are focused on affordability. We're focused on people's monthly payment because that leads to more vehicles and therefore quote new models will resemble in form and shape the existing cars we make, but the cars will be more affordable." Quote, "We are limited on using existing manufacturing lines with different form factors." Okay.
In English, yes. what we've been concerned as a likely reality over the last 18 months, which it's good and bad, right? But we've been concerned that this idea about a new car coming is really just going to end up being a paired down Model 3, paired down Model Y, or cheaper Cybert trucks. And that sounds like it's exactly what we're getting.
Now, that's not necessarily bad. From an efficiency point of view, this is totally logical. But from a hopium point of view, some people were going to be disappointed by this because there was hope that if we have a new car, there'll be some new sizzle or some new stake that we could sell and we could get to more vehicle production.
Instead, Tesla's basically saying, "Nah, we're going to use the same platforms that we have. We're just going to figure out how to pair them down more so we could sell them more cheaply." Now this is slightly problematic because margin is already getting compressed as they said in their earnings call and in their press release that tariffs will affect their business more so the energy business than the vehicle business but also the vehicle business know that just 5% of lithium ion battery production comes from the North America 84% comes from China and so when it comes to the trade war they see more of an impact on their energy side which is also very battery dependent which we'll talk about Nphase a a little bit later in this video, but it's worth noting when you compare the production of of uh you know batteries between Tesla and Nphase, it's not even close.
Like NPhase blow or sorry um Tesla blows NPhase absolutely out of the water uh in terms of battery production. Tesla output over 10 gawatt of battery production whereas uh and you know that's Tesla right over 10 gigawatts. Just want to make sure I'm saying that right. And Nphase only produced about 44 megawws, which if you divide those into each other and convert, Tesla's doing 236 times the battery production of Nphase.
It's it's a huge huge number of battery production that Tesla is doing. And this is really important because batteries have good margins. Uh and unfortunately, the tariffs are hitting those margins for Tesla. So, not great. Now, that said, margins for energy were great this quarter at Tesla. We had uh energy margins at 28.7%.
That was above expectations for the first quarter. Although they kind of asterisk that by saying that energy income's going to be very volatile. There's also a point in the uh slide deck where you get Elon Musk suggest or presumably Elon Musk suggesting but we don't know. Uh we have this suggestion.
I'll show it to you right here. Uh here it is. The rate of growth this year will depend on a variety of factors including the rate uh of the acceleration of our autonomy efforts, the production ramp of the macro environment, and we will revisit our 2025 guidance for Q2 or in Q2. In other words, you know, is this sort of Elon saying like, hey, we'll have a better idea of where tariffs land by July because maybe a lot of the tariff drama will be over by then.
I don't know. May maybe that's too optimistic to look at it that way, but I do think it's kind of interesting that they specified the second quarter and Elon is an insider in the White House. In addition to this, we have automotive margin X credits at just 12.5% that was a miss. Uh and automotive margin with credits at 16.3% which was a slight beat over the 16.1 expected.
Tesla's got plenty of cash. This is the balance sheet. You really when you're looking at Tesla, I know a lot of people are going to poo poo these numbers here, but they have a lot of money. They're not going anywhere anytime soon. And you kind of have to look at the money that they have and respect it and go, "All right, I mean, this is still pretty damn good." They've got $40.7 billion of available cash.
In fairness, they have a stack of bills on their desk of 26.5 billion. They have $16.2 billion of long-term debt, which means if I just subtract the cash they have from the bills they have, they have 14.2 2 billion of free cash just this year available. On top of that, they have another 11 billion of inventories.
So, as they start, you know, selling vehicles, they increase their cash flow and they can pay off their bills or whatever, right? So, they've got plenty of cash. And even though their cash flow isn't as great as it used to be, their cash flow coming in at just over $600 million. The expectation was for it to be over a billion dollars.
They're still producing cash flow on top of this cash pile that they have. So, they've got a lot of cash. And yes, free cash flow was low this quarter, but they themselves say we have sufficient liquidity. And this is actually good because people were concerned that Tesla might want to like issue shares to invest in XAI or something.
There were some crazy rumors about this beforehand. A bigger problem I would say is net income. You know, Tesla's net income was not very good this quarter and I'm very curious to see how Wall Street analysts are going to treat this net income. There's also some rumor mill that and this could be true that because we did last quarter we recognized Bitcoin gains as part of our net income.
And I I I haven't had time to get to the bottom of this yet, but there's a possibility that Bitcoin losses were not included this time. I'm wondering if that's because now we're in a quarterly report and the last report was an annual report. I I don't know. Either way, I don't really care because I care about the core of the business.
And the core of the business h it had it did have some problems. Okay, it we we had some problems. First of all, automotive revenues were down 31%. Okay, that's that's a big hit. Now, yes, we went from Q4 to Q1, but that's still a pretty big hit. Yes, some of that is because of the Model Y revamp Juniper, but a lot of it is probably brand damage and just selling cars for less.
Although the Model Y Juniper led to, you know, a higher average selling price because of Juniper, so that helps. But you're still cutting prices across the board. You know, even on the Cybertruck now out for what, $69,000, you could get a long range Cy Cybertruck. I have the Cybertruck, the fast one.
Honestly, I I I never Trump on it, so I would probably just get the regular one, and you basically get the same vehicle. Uh, and you save what, $30,000. That's probably a good deal. Anyway, uh we can see that their margin on energy was good, but their gross profit overall here in this red highlight collapsed 25%.
Which isn't great. That's again mostly because their automotive revenues, their topline fell. This is why you have to put your business hat on when it comes to Tesla. This is why Tesla is telling us, "Hey, um we're going to focus on actually manufacturing as many freaking cars as we can." And honestly, I'm bullish about hearing that.
Like fine, no new model, fine, but get more vehicles out. In fact, I've been pounding my fists on the table saying just make more cars. Like we should be saturating the world with FSD and more cars. Like even if you have to lower the price of FSD, make more cars because that increases the network effects of Tesla.
More people buying Tes, you know, Tesla solar, more people buying Tesla batteries, more people talking up FSD, more people minimizing the brand damage of Tesla and defending Tesla. uh you know more people supporting uh Optimus or buying the stock or or believing in the company or whatever because they're users of the product.
This is a good thing. This is why you know when like you know I've I've done just real estate analysis as an example just as a comparison on on my YouTube channel for years and I I I don't think it's a surprise that when you know I'm like hey we're starting a real estate company that you can invest in people are like oh yeah I like I I know the work Kevin does.
I want to be a part of that. It's the same thing for Tesla, right? The more people you have inside the company, the more people are willing to invest in the company and in the stock. And so, I actually think this is a good strategy of moving to full production and getting back to vehicle growth. Let's get to 3 million vehicles produced.
Let's stay away from this 1.9 million nonsense being stuck in the schlog. Now, we're going to talk about Optimus and some of this excitement in just a moment, but I do want to quickly mention we put this sweet banner together at Houseack. Look at this. . You get 5% annual yield plus 100% of the upside in the stock.
You diversify away from long-term treasury risks. You diversify away from most tariff risk. You diversify away from frothy VC AI valuations because we're raising at the low end of our Wall Street valuation from the end of last year, which is outdated anyway. Valuation is probably way higher today. So, I think you're getting a wedge on the company.
And you diversify into American real estate by investing in house hack. So consider taking some of your money off the table wherever you have it and investing in house hack. Go to houseack.com. You can now invest as a nonacredited investor which uh is awesome. Uh so anyway, going back to this sheet over here, Tesla is, you know, there is obviously a huge amount of hope priced into Tesla right now.
We know that this idea that we only generated $399 million of net income in the face of an estimate of $1.13 billion is a big problem. It's not good. You have a collapse of net income. Last year, you had 34 cents of earnings in this quarter. Now you're down at 13. So, not good. Your net margin, like this, this 3.99, if you divide this by the revenues they had, you're only at 2% margin.
And if you add research and development back, you're, you know, somewhere at a 9.3% net margin, which is a low margin business. It's not good. So then the question is if you produce more cars at, you know, and you get more volume, but you're doing it at a lower cost with these newer models that are going to be the same form factor, are you actually going to increase this net income?
We don't know. Now hopefully we could do it with Optimus, right? Because see the thing about Optimus is Elon says, "Hey, maybe we can produce a million Optimus robots by 2030, maybe even 2029." Okay. Well, so really quick math at $25,000 per Optimus robot, a 30% margin because hopefully it would include the FSD, basically the AI brain, that generates about $7.5 billion per year of income before taxes, which would be roughly double our 2025 estimated profits alone.
This would be great. But then when you look at what Wall Street's already estimating for for Tesla, Wall Street's already pricing in an explosion in net income by 2029. Net income for 2025 is supposed to be $9 billion. Wall Street's already assuming net income is going to more than 3x to $29 billion by 2029.
So Wall Street's definitely pricing in some level of either margin expansion, energy sales expansion, certainly energy expansions built into there, but not that much, not $20 billion worth. uh and then some sort of revenue for Optimus and uh uh and and robo taxis which uh Elon Musk does suggest we're still going to see robo taxis uh launched in Austin as a trial this June.
Then he revises that to say late June, early July. So we're getting a little bit of a potential delay here. And he says that unsupervised uh uh FSD would come to vehicles by the end of this year in select cities when in the last earnings call he said by summer for Texas and California. So we're seeing some delay uh about a six-month delay on unsupervised FSD and about a one-mon delay potentially on robo taxi.
That's that could be worse. Okay, not trying to defend Elon with his bad timing, but I'm just saying that could be worse. You know, one month delay even on the robo taxis isn't too terrible. So then in fairness, if you do look at the automotive credits, which Tesla's still getting for manufacturing and customers were still getting for EV tax credits before Trump's tax plan, without the automotive tax credits, Tesla would have lost money.
They had $595 million of automotive credits. So keep that in mind. That's a problem. Supercharger growth only grew by 17% on the low side for really expanding this EV network. Uh and uh 10.4 gawatt hours of deployed Q1 energy battery packs, storage packs. It's actually pretty good. That's actually pretty bullish coming from Q4 because, you know, Q4 is usually where people deploy this stuff.
So, I thought that was pretty actually good. Uh, now, as far as this uh this talk about, uh, you know, the the um tariffs, he says that Elon Musk says he's, you know, pro- free trade or no tariffs for greater prosperity, but tariffs are a decision that the president comes up with. It's not up to him.
So, they're going to work to localize their supply chains. But there's some challenges because a lot of their supply chains localized in North America rely on Canada and Mexico. 85% of that roughly fortunately USMCA compliant which is a good thing. Mostly exempt from tariffs right now mostly. Uh but then they do also rely on China for things like critical minerals which is uh you know certainly a sore spot right now especially since China is asking Tesla hey you know for these critical minerals you need in your robots your Optimus robots are any of these going to be used in military purposes?
It just shows you how much power China actually has. Obviously the answer is no, but it shows the power China has even over Tesla right now. Uh which is somewhat challenging. Now uh what we also find is uh this this idea of uh how many autonomous vehicles might we get by July or June, whatever. Elon says about 10 to 20 and we're still planning on releasing those this year.
Uh but the big focus right now is full utilization of our factories this year. That's the big goal. Uh Elon talks about being ridiculously vertically integrated. Uh we're going to be the most valuable company in the world. The problem is when you manufacture a new product like Optimus, which is still a development product.
It's uh complex to manufacture and it's going to take a while to scale it. You know, talk to us next year basically on that. So this gives us you an overview of Tesla. I think most of Tesla's bounce in the after hours was really more Trump driven and trade hope driven than it was actual numbers driven because if you think about it the company update we didn't get a new model announced we actually got the opposite we got no new car announced we missed on basically every single metric with the exception of one set of margin you know EPS guy like all this stuff was a miss it was bad uh we didn't get again a new model we got this talk about Elon maybe coming back next month uh but you know then again like does how much does that fundamentally change the business model if he's still working at Doge one to two days a week I don't know so most of the runup we're seeing right now I'm going to attribute to Trump not so much these earnings however there is also the possibility that people are just looking at these Tesla earnings and they're like all right the worst is now over now I don't know that the worst is now over but it could be that people are like all right terrible quarter behind us now we could buy the dip that's also possible now I'm going to briefly do end phase Nphase.
Uh, okay. Look, minimal impact for micro inverters. They do most of their micro inverters in America because of the tax credits they get from the inflation reduction act. Big dollar. Unfortunately, much like Tesla, they source a lot of their batteries from China and that's going to hurt their margin by 6 to 8% on gross margin uh between like well really until the third quarter and then they're going to start working on switching to other countries.
They didn't say which. I guessed South Korea and then later in their earnings call they suggested South Korea as a potential. This is not a surprise. Just think Samsung. Okay, this this is not a you know big brain move here. This is kind of obvious. Uh so they're looking at lower tariff alternatives.
But Nphase missed across the board really as well. Their estimate for revenue was 377 mil. They came in at 360 4.5% miss on the guide. Their margin came in at 455 versus 49.8 expected. their adjusted EPS missed at 68 cents versus 73. Basically missed across the board. Basically, don't buy NPhase until the Federal Reserve panics and cuts rates.
That's my take. Uh however, their balance sheet still looks pretty good, which makes them a cheap deal right now to maybe start thinking about as we get into a rate cut environment. 1.5 billion of cash, $960 million of bills, plus about 600 million in long-term debt. They could basically use 100% of their cash to pay off 100% of their debt.
They're p cash flow positive slightly about 34 mil a quarter. So I don't see a high bankruptcy risk here. Obviously their stock will probably just continue to go down on the weight of tariffs and high interest rates which hurt solar adoption. So this gives you a full breakdown of everything. If you found this useful uh well consider subscribing to the channel and as always go check out househack.com.
Uh and then also keep in mind when we do our course member live streams in the morning we do them in the meet Kevin membership. So, go to meet Kevin.com to check out the Meet Kevin membership. It includes access to all of the courses on building your wealth. And in addition to the courses on building your wealth, it includes the alpha report.
You know, this morning's trade alert, for example, or or you know, trade ideal or whatever you want to call it, uh was coreweave. We thought it would go to $40 and it's at $40 now from 35 is a really big move. So, uh this would have been an easy one to make money on. Anyway, if you want these sort of alerts, can't guarantee that every alert will will make you money, but uh I will do my best to provide you as much alpha as I can every single morning.
In addition, you get the course member live streams and all the courses. Get it over at meetke.com. Less than two bucks a d.
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