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i did uh get to talk to david tepper at length uh last night and he more or less initiated uh the conversation based on the market action that we saw on friday on the lows he described his uh his stance on the markets as there's an aviation term where you push the throttle all the way to the wall and there's these little knobs if you will on each side of the aviation throttle and the knobs go to the wall but we're not really going to say that for some reason fine with me but he said on the lows on friday he actually pushed it through the wall now he got bullish for a very specific reason and it gets a little bit arcane but you know tepper is a guy that uh he's he'll go with the crowd when he needs to but he can also be very contrarian and this is a contrarian call based on what happened in japan on friday uh kind of interesting but uh the yields in japan fell after the bank of japan's governor hirohiko kuroda didn't say that they were going to widen the ban on the japanese government bonds on the 10-year david's point is that for five years more than five years the japanese have been net sellers of u.s treasuries finally at this point at 1.6 on our 10-year they are now likely to be buyers because they can make a nice profit based on how cheap u.s 10-year treasuries are compared to a japanese 10-year and 30-year and it might not seem that way because the rates are lower but it has to do with currency hedged positions that you take it's now those have collapsed the cost of those so now you can make about a half of a point more on our treasury so his viewpoint is that takes a major risk off the table and it's very difficult to be bearish right now his basic thesis is that we are at the high end of the range at least for several months on the 10-year and maybe the new range is is 1-3 to maybe 1-7 but he expects it to be much more stable now the 10-year and that flies in the face of everything you guys have been talking about today you know hearing about three percent 10 years now he did want to emphasize something this i actually got this morning because it's very arcane when you look at what we're talking about in japan and how um you know the the currency hedging and all that stuff he says basically i think rates have temporarily made the most of the move and should be more stable in the next few months months which makes it safer to be in stocks for now not necessarily a long-term predictor on where rates are six months a year out but at this point a lot of what you know the market has given it agita uh is that the the rates have been moving up and moving quickly he thinks that we're near the high end at least for the next several months now he combined all this with the stimulus package he says you got a possibility of stable rates with uh with 1.9 trillion going to be passed this week and the combination of those two things could be very bullish for stock so now in terms of the the knobs to the wall and through the wall and all that that expression uh he was more uh at the lows on friday if you saw the nasdaq um that's i think where he got really bullish and was acting on his bullish intensity he also made some interesting comments on some of the bellwethers like amazon that amazon now at 25 to 30 times whenever it's been here and it's fallen quite a bit from where it had been that that is a cheap um it's not expensive at this point and that's something that he thinks permanent changes have been made and where we're ever going to buy t-shirts you're nev probably never going to go to a store to buy a t-shirt if you can just order it online and there's a lot of permanent changes that have been made so amazon looks pretty good to him so that's what we have i saw a little bit of the show earlier and i did see a lot of people talking about you know market is teetering on a real problem based on whether rates continue to go up so this is this kind of flies in the face of that now be interested i'll be interested uh what you guys think and i'll be interested to talk to muhammad about it because you know he's a global uh a watcher of all things global and it was really a shock in in japan i mean the quote was that it stunned kuroda stunned market participants by not widening this ban they have the yield control that they do over there at zero and the band now is 40 basis points and they were widely expected on friday to raise that range which would have made uh you know they they're dealing with the same thing we're dealing with they want to keep the economy going they don't want to stifle it but there is upward pressure on rates and that was a surprise on friday and that was fully the reason for tepper to get bullish
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