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테슬라가 Cathie Wood 목표가 3,100달러(2030년)를 제시했다는 점을 소개하며 시작한다. 테슬라 매출 대부분은 자동차(90% 이상)이며 FSD 매출은 2024년 약 5.95억 달러로 전체의 1% 미만이라고 지적한다. 기술주 밸류에이션을 자동차 사업에 적용하는 것은 부적절하며, Cathie Wood 논리는 로보택시 사업 성공을 전제로 한 '희망과 꿈'에 가깝다고 평가한다. 자체 5년 시나리오 분석으로 중간 시나리오에서 큰 상승 여지가 있음을 보여주지만, 결론은 '가능성은 있으나 개연성은 따져봐야 한다'는 것이다.
다듬은 글
guys Kathy Wood has updated her price Target on Tesla to $3,100 per share which is a total of 622 per return by 2030 you think that's a lot it's 76.7% per year growth for Tesla stock now let's go see how Tesla is going to make this happen Tesla stock has been on a wild ride it hit $415 per share just two and a half years ago and it since there has really languished now now perfect example of how people look at a stock it's Fallen a lot and they start to turn on Elon the mentality on Elon has not been as rosy as it was in the past but don't deny Tesla has been an incredibly fast growing business look what's happened over the last 10 years they only did 3.2 billion in Revenue in 2014 last year 96.8 billion that is incredible incredible growth from their all-time high back around 2022 and 2021 they are up significantly higher on revenue and profit and even more their full self-driving system at $99 per month has been coming out more and more that is the big key to getting very high valuations why well guys as I've talked about many times before Tesla right now is a car company over 90% of its Revenue comes from Cars I used to think it was otherwise I used to think the services part of their revenue was their self-driving it's not in fact let me show you something I found in their 10K services and other Revenue consists of sales of used vehicles non-warranty after sales vehicle services body shop and parts vehicle insurance revenue and Retail merchandise Mo I was under the impression shame on me that Services meant the the FSD I thought it was full self-driving the software Etc yeah never would have guessed that it was that stuff and mo at $99 per month for for FSD how much of this is gross margin this has got to be insanely high gross margin it's just software it's just software so it's got to be 85 90% if not more gross margin so I thought to myself oh my God this company is going to kill it but once I read this in the 10K I was like wait a second so what is their actual FSD Revenue right now now the interesting part is this is an even more bull case in my opinion because this entire time I thought they were making this crap money even with a lot of FSD Revenue but their FSD Revenue has not been high in fact last year they only realized $595 million for this upcoming year they're expecting $926 million in Revenue that's less than 1% of the revenue coming from this really high margin business for those of you out there who are against Tesla this is good news because this is going to help Tesla's valuation Mo shows how much growth there is exactly there's so much growth available in this at $99 a month I wonder what the penetration rate is for this $99 per month so you sit there and say let's say Tesla gets to 10 million cars a year someday okay okay now let's say 20% buy full self-driving I don't know if that's realistic or not it's a big number but maybe but two million cars a year time $99 a month that equals what well $200 million a month in Revenue that's a fantastic times 12 2.4 billion that's more like it but look how crazy that number is from 926 million I'm looking at this going okay how I 10 million cars times 20% am I only getting 200 two billion dollar$ 2.4 billion dollar in revenue and then they're saying in their 10K right here I just thought of something too they saying their 10K they're going to do 26 million this year they did sell 10 million cars last year you I the thing that I just thought of was you assume they're sell 10 million cars a year well that's my thing so that's why I'm I'm not seeing the connection do less I'm not seeing the connection between how they're doing 926 million this year maybe they'll increase the price maybe they will but then who how many people buy it these are the conundrums we're having with Tesla yes there's a lot of potential for Tech and this could really drive the stocks value because the end of the day guys if they're able to generate let's say $100 billion a year in revenue from FSD FSD what does that have to equate to100 billion let's do the math real quick divided by 12 months is $8.3 billion a month in Revenue divided by $99 a month is 83 million cars have to be using this now 83 million cars have to be using it maybe they well that's a lot of cars using it that's the point but maybe they it's not just in Teslas no no but still 83 million I believe worldwide new car sales are 50 million a year so I'm looking going States it's like 17 to 18 million right yeah it's like 17 to 18 million I'm looking at this trying to get a grasp of Tesla and don't get me wrong my negativity on the stock not the company not Elon the stock has been is it possible for them to be a $3,100 per share prep business according to um Kathy Wood sure it's possible what would that make the market cap today $8.5 trillion do something around there so so 8.5 trillion so if you if that was today it would be more than Nvidia and apple Microsoft combined yeah about the same value you combine all three of them it's about the same yeah and I'm looking at saying okay now let's say 70% of the revenue came from Tech from that FSD guys when people value a company and say it's Tech what I hear them saying and I want you to hear me out this one is saying that all the revenue comes in you're valuing at Tech no you've got to Value the car Revenue as a car business the tech revenue is Tech business the merchandise business is merchandise the auto every single part that generates Revenue you have to Value it based on the kind of Revenue It Is by itself especially due to the vastly different margins that each category has incredibly different margins it's nuts and it's funny you mentioned that Mo you look at automotives and services and energy generation and storage segment now the good news about the energ generation it's getting higher it was 4.6 7.4 18.9 but look at Automotive it's going down declining 26.9 26.5 18.2 do have a lot to do with their tax credits I think that was a big chunk of it the company is still going to grow they still make incredible Vehicles they're still the leader in my opinion in electric 100% but don't forget forages announced we're selling out our hybrids like crazy like people are turning against our electric vehicles Mo you saw it when trying to sell your look at mine I have an electric vehicle it's not a Tesla but the value is absolutely plummeted Tesla plummeted plummeted in value again this is short term Tesla is still an amazing company but they've had to drop their price last year five six times to get people to get keep sales going because that was very important to Elon and look at this Mo the growth rate in the energy business look at these growth rates 30 40 40 54 50% over the LA that's for the growth rate for 2024 huge growth potential as they grow that gross margin can keep going up and up I think the energy level has got to get to 30 or 40% for me to start sitting there saying okay if maybe this is going to sound funny what if Automotive becomes their loss leader not literally losses but basically hey let's cover our cost with the auto business and let's really make our money on energy and the FSD I would absolutely love that but again then you've got to Value every piece of the company by itself and add them together for a whole ENT ire company valuation what I'm hearing out there from a lot of people and people are probably hearing it from me too it's not my intention what I'm hearing from a lot of people is Paul it's a tech company therefore you have to Value it like a tech company no you value the tech portion like a tech company you value the auto portion like an auto company that's what I'm trying to get across it could really be both that's the goal that they're going for and it'll likely be that but for Kathy Wood and by the way there's been a lot of criticism of Kathy Wood lately if you remember she sold Nvidia like literally at the wrong time guys there are plenty of things to criticize Kathy Wood on this is not one of them nobody I don't care who you are saw what was going to happen with Nvidia and AI not a single soul in the world so when I hear and you know guys know me I've been a great criticizer of Kathy but I don't think she deserves a criticism on Nvidia at all now guys a big part of Arc and Kathy Wood's thesis on Tesla is What mo she and Arc say 90% of Tesla value and earnings will be attributable to its Robo taxis business which is yet to launch August 8th they're going to host an event for robo taxis so I love that she's looking at the future I love that investors you have to look at the future because remember every investment is the present value of all future cash flows the interesting and unfortunate part is when you take that valuation like it's automatically going to happen guys Tesla's already had issues with developing and building cars to launch a whole Robo taxi business and say it's going to go so well that this company's going to become an $8.5 trillion business that's hard for me to get around and this is what I have an issue with with arc's investment and Kathy Wood's investment thesis it's not investment it's Hope and Dreams as professor aswal says a story without numbers is a fairy tale numbers without a story is an Excel sheet this is a fairy tale that has to take so long to come into play you've got to be ready for people to shift on a company like they already have with Tesla and it could get worse Ark said that if the Tesla Robo taxi network isn't operable by 2029 its price Target would be lowered to around $350 a share wow so they are really really saying that Robo taxi will be it and I want to make sure everybody understands Tesla's self-driving is an autopilot is so incredibly safe look at this data here millions of miles driven before an accident occurs Tesla vehicle using autopilot technology guys look at this 7.5 million miles United States average 500,000 miles 15 times safer now the thing I don't get Tesla vehicles not using Auto autopilot technology it's still almost double the US average so does that mean Teslas themselves are safer in terms of stopping a car Etc or Tesla drivers just safer drivers I don't know but look at this difference guys I don't know why Tesla doesn't promote the crap out of this information and guys going back q1 of 2021 look at the numbers it's only getting better too and it's substantially better than the rest of the than the real world this is wonderful technology I want to repeat that I am not anti- Tesla I am not anti- autopilot I am anti- valuation so leads to the next question what is the right valuation for Tesla now this is a stock analyzer that we did while back B we've got to change us drastically the biggest part the change are profit and free cash flow what I think we need to do here is do a low case where they just St a car company a middle case where it's a combination 5050 cars in sales and a high case which is all basically yeah the robo everything is huge now Guys these this is all pure speculation that's what investing is to a certain element you've got to sit there and decide what are your ranges of potential metrics here that's the end of the day what you have to do unfortunately a lot of people just want to believe a story and say and buy the stock what you're saying there if you do that is no price is too high and we can all agree that you're watching this channel you've made it this far in the video you know that there is a price that's too high and if you want to get in this conversation if you want to use these tools to become a better investor do me a favor click the link in the description below join our community get all of our software there's a great trial for one week go check it out I guarantee it'll make you a better investor it'll help you become clearer and have conversations with thousands of like minded people a lot of them in there absolutely disagree with me on Tesla think that Tesla is going to the Moon in fact so much so this is a tweet a poll that I put out yesterday it's not done yet I have 455 votes on what you think a reasonable price target for Tesla is for 2030 53% said 0 to 500 28% said 500 to a th000 88.6% said 1,500 and 10% said over 1,500 now you got to remember these people who follow me people who agree with my valuation there're people like you out there so when I saw $1,500 more I'm like I was surprised by that but it just goes to show there's a lot of positivity out there for Tesla and you can engage these people in our community all right Mo Revenue growth what do you thinking on a 10-year analysis actually let's do the fiveyear analysis because we're going to we're gonna go five let's start of we're gonna do five-year analysis now there's gonna be let's just do cars only if a business it becomes a cars only business the low side so seven I I agree okay now middle Revenue growth 20 okay let's go to 20 I think that's high what do you think it should be I think it should I like should like 712 and 20 maybe on the high side because I look at it going even in the middle for it to grow that's still5 billion dollar a year today in extra revenue generated at 12% versus 7% but you're smiling well because my high was going to be like 60 because I was going to do almost the same assumptions as Arc is going out so what did you find on Arc Investments thesis for revenue for Tesla in 2030 so this is an this is an interview that Kathy Wood did and it's on Morning Star so we believe that the entire opportunity of artificial intelligence is going to generate Revenue 8 to10 trillion do in 2030 half of which will go to platforms like Tesla Tesla is the biggest artificial intelligence project in the world and we believe it's going to move towards its goal of autonomous taxes okay so on the low side of $4 trillion that's 52 and half% growth just assuming their car business stays the same 52 and a half% per year so Mo maybe you were right about 60% because their go their car is going to grow too right so let's put in 60% I can't believe that but let's put it in there now profit margin low side for bottom line margin for the car business let's go 7% let's go eight% combination of some Ai and cars but mostly cars I say we do what do you think 20% what do we go 25 25% no let's go 20 okay and then for profit margin for the other part of the business so I mean Microsoft does like 30 35% so maybe we should do 32 and a half okay what do you think I had 40 in there 40 okay 35% how about that let go 35% and then for cash flow I I just did the same thing exact same thing now PE so on the low end I did 18 okay high end I did 25 I'm sorry high end I did 30 middle I did 2 but at the same point if they're maybe it's worth more than a 30p if if they crush it like that I don't know and I did my 9% desire return so this is assuming just the market return I think the numbers gonna all be green here be awesome hit the analyze button oh look you re earned 200 points today from my active stock analyzer oh my gosh well that means today you can pay $22,000 that's not even five years from now price but in the middle guys a combination of them there's some upside here so guys it's all about how you look at this whole entire business we can make any story up any fairy tale up the question is is this probable it might be possible is it probable that's the question you have to ask yourself so if you want to see where we did a deeper analysis on Tesla stock in the past watch this next video thank you very much for your time
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