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first she identifies disruptions by any means possible including crowdsourcing she even opens the firm's friday afternoon research meetings to outsiders who can call in via zoom hey everyone welcome back to another video and today's topic is how kathy wood beat wall street by betting tesla is worth more than one trillion dollars now if you're not familiar with kathy wood she is the ceo of arkhanvest she became famous for being a tesla bull when bears roamed the earth past couple of years she's risen to fame because of her keen eye of finding investments that grow for more details to come let's get into this article the newest superstar investor has leveraged a zealous belief in innovation into a 29 billion dollars in assets firm and a 200 million dollars net worth among her predictions elon musk's car company is vastly undervalued tesla shares were limping along around 200 in may 2019 about where they had traded five years earlier and you can see that here this is where everyone was doubting tesla yet she was the one voice of reason in hindsight but at the time it seemed pretty absurd kathy wood and her arc investment management were already well known for their way out their predictions that tesla would build a fleet of robo taxis worth one trillion dollars and that his shares would soar 20 or 30 fold by 2023 now she stirred the pot again by publishing online arc's new bulls case valuation of 1.4 trillion dollars implying a share price above 6 000 complete with every excel calculation and assumption behind those estimates even for me at the time i was already invested in tesla as early as 2014.
i knew nothing i just thought it was a cool logo and i liked the designs of their cars i saw tesla as a car company and that was my first mistake and everyone's first mistake everyone in the media was just calling it another car company and how could it possibly have this outlandish valuation criticism came fast and furious a tesla short seller jim chanos famed for uncovering enron's fraud took wood to task over arc's forecast of tesla's gross margins what arc has produced is a forward pricing for tesla not a valuation sniffed evaluation expert aswath moderate finance professor at new york university the model he noted didn't include a discounted cash flow analysis and carried incomplete forecasts on the cost tesla would incur to scale its vehicle productions that 1 trillion value arc was placing on tesla's non-existent robo taxi fleet strikes me as more fairy tale than valuation in the modern defense the robo taxi fleet was indeed non-existent but not just in reality it was non-existent in people's minds so talking about something that didn't exist yet that we didn't even really understand what the technology would look like that is hard to place a valuation on but but that's why kathy wood is so special she saw the potential she calculated a worth based on metrics she was following and as of today she's been vindicated with tesla now trading at over two thousand dollars pre-split six thousand dollars no longer seems like such a stretch sixteen months later tesla's shares after five for one august stock split were trading at four hundred dollars in other words they'd risen tenfold driven up by speculation and excitement over musk's autonomous driving and battery technologies and tesla's stronger than expected financial performance musk's car company is now worth five times more than ford and general motors combined and wood has made a fortune the nitpicking skeptics she believes have missed the big picture and my oh my have they missed it as electric cars go increasingly mainstream production efficiencies and advances in batteries and other technologies will cut what it costs to make them and as sticker prices fall demand will surge including from businesses like ride sharing companies in september musk promised a 25 000 car within three years so is musk's car company truly worth five times more than ford and general motors combined if you were to ask me if that's fair right now given what they're selling given how many cars they make maybe it's not fair right now but if we're talking about potential and not just unrealizable potential but future that is coming then this car company is actually worth way more than that it just depends on what your timeline is if your timeline is right now in this moment not very much if your timeline is five years or ten years it's not going to just be worth five times then it's going to be worth 10 times 20 times them because ford and general motors are unable to compete right now i think their cars are cool i think they work fine but what have they really done innovation wise in the past 10 or 20 years these legacy automotive companies they were making money hand over fist and they weren't looking forward because all of their infrastructure was already in place they were just doing what they did best and any innovation would be extra costs that wouldn't help pad their bottom line in the short term but elon musk looks to the long term and so does kathy wood meanwhile wood 64 is perfectly happy to have a chorus of critics it almost makes me feel comfortable to be honest because it means if we're right then the rewards will be pretty enormous and this is really key if you are right about something and everybody else is wrong about something in the market that means you will reap the rewards disproportionately because if everybody is wrong that means they don't think tesla is worth that much and that means overall tesla's share price it's gonna be a lot lower than it should be if everyone sees the exact same thing as you do that this is this amazing company with unlimited potential then the share price is going to reflect that so that's also a note for you guys if you believe you are right about something sure it can be nerve-wracking if no one agrees with you but if you are the truly the only right person in the room in the market you are going to get paid assuming you're right here are some of her top holdings as you can see all of these have had a significantly higher return than what the s p 500 has which as of today roughly has returned about five percent wood's comfort with going her own way has helped her turn ark into one of the fastest growing and top performing investment firms in the world its flagship 8.6 billion dollar arc innovation fund is up a staggering 75 in 2020 and has returned an annual average of 36 percent over the past five years nearly triple that of the s p 500 and now that is an amazing return but to be fair kathy wood has invested in a lot of technology companies right now we are in an age of technology her returns are outsized but her portfolio isn't really the most diversified at some point if the technology sector were to take a big hit so would her portfolio while most star stock pickers treat their work like steak secrets wood makes ark's research freely available online and posts real real-time logs of her firm's trades instead of hiring mbas she prefers to bring on board young analysts with backgrounds in subjects like molecular biology or computer engineering figuring they're more likely to spot the next trend even the structure of arc an acronym for active research knowledge is original wood manages seven portfolios designed to capitalize on breakthroughs in robotics energy storage dna sequencing and financial and blockchain technology and makes them available to investors particularly millennials trading on robinhood as tax efficient exchange traded funds now this is really important one trend that i personally notice and again i'm not an expert i'm just a guy in the internet what i notice about when financial analysts talk about stocks they really do think more about the short term because their goal is to make more money i mean that might seem obvious but when your goal is to make more money especially in the short term your decisions are going to reflect how this company is going to move you know within days or weeks or even years can be considered short term what kathy is doing by hiring people in the fields of companies that she's investing in is they will have a deeper understanding of the potential of a technology of a company truly truly long term they won't be as savvy on the money side but they are going to be far more savvy in the actual importance and value this new technology or breakthrough is going to provide and that is the difference between focusing on the long-term value of a company versus just focusing on how much money a company can make us its tesla position and a pandemic that has accelerated adoption of the technologies embedded in the 35 to 55 companies in each arc etf have helped its assets nearly triple in 2020 to 29 billion dollars quote the illness has catapulted our innovation platforms into high gear because they solve problems wood says and again like i said before i think wood is very smart but you just have to make sure you understand all the factors the pandemic that's happening definitely helped push all of these companies that she's invested in into high gear they've done really well in another situation that i'm not going to speculate on it's possible that technology could do very poorly and all of our legacy companies could do very well for example if judgement day came and teslas all came to life and decided that they wanted to overthrow us whiny unattractive meat suits then tech companies tesla would probably drop in that point and we'd want to go back to simpler times that is an example where her fund and everything she's invested in could tank personally i'll be okay with my new robot overlords and i'd probably continue to invest because i'd rather be on the winning side than the losing soft human side forbes conservatively values arc at 500 million dollars or about 2 percent of assets under management roughly the same multiple as publicly traded t row price commands wood's 50 plus ownership gives her a net worth of 250 million dollars good for the number 80 spot on forbes sixth annual list of america's richest self-made woman it's easy to dismiss woods as the face of a stock market bubble created by the federal reserve's easy money policies but she has survived her share of both bubbles and bear markets this video is getting a little bit long so i'm going to skip through part of her journey and go straight to her approach to building portfolios first she identifies disruptions by any means possible including crowdsourcing she even opens the firm's friday afternoon research meetings to outsiders who can call in via zoom economics is central wood is most bullish on innovations if she believes their costs will decline over time creating real demand when scoring potential holdings arc looks at corporate culture and management execution on growth initiatives only at the end of the process does wood value a company refusing to buy anything she doesn't expect will rise by 15 annually over five years arc's minimum expected holding period this is another point for how long term she thinks she will only find companies she will hold with five years that means it doesn't matter what is happening in the short term that means even if tesla was flat for five years that's what made her so successful she saw potential she did her calculations and she stuck to them and over five years a lot of the companies she's chosen have paid off because it takes time for a company to grow the tumult of 2020 has been good for art and often missed by nature would nonetheless offer an unsettling predictions for the next five years she expects a broad swath of large industries baking energy transportation healthcare to be disrupted by technological change with many workers displaced the results she believes is that economic growth inflation and broad market indexes will all fall persistently short of expectations providing an opportunity for active managers to pick the innovative winners that will continue to drive market gains quote i think the benchmarks and the indexes are going to go through a terrible period we're already seeing it she says we believe they are being increasingly populated by value traps does she think the market is now in a bubble nope uncertainty over the pandemic about the election means money has been flowing out of stocks and into the safety of bonds she notes the fact that people are fearful now that we're back at the s p 500 trading at 25 times earnings tells me that we are not in a bubble at all now bubble would mean that all the stock prices are too inflated because too many people are buying in and it's at record highs but because she's saying that well actually a lot of people are getting out of it there's no way we're in a bubble because not that many people are playing a lot of people are scared that's it that's all i have if you're interested in the rest of the article i'll link it in the description box below it's by antoine gara and it's a really interesting read agree or disagree with kathy it's hard to argue with her results this year and also with her approach to choosing and managing her portfolio and her approach to investing is very logical and calm and long term that's the key you have to look long term as an investor you should never be too swept up in the day-to-day month-to-month fluctuations in a company if you really really have done the due diligence in a company you have to stay the course unless your gm and all the people and the media and the market calls you stupid she stuck it out and i respect her for that and it's paying off right now let me know what you think about kathy wood or arkhamvest or if there's another investor that you follow that you've learned a lot from this is green night training where square has become knights thank you all so much for watching and i'll see you soon
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