🔴 Breaking: Next $3.7 Billion SPAC $IPOC Chamath Palihapitiya

요약 보기

결론: 샤마스 팔리하피티야의 SPAC 클로버헬스(IPOC) 관련 영상으로, 유튜버는 헬스케어 시장 규모를 근거로 긍정적이지만 본인은 직접 투자하지 않겠다는 입장. 발표 배경: 샤마스가 차기 SPAC으로 헬스케어 기업 클로버헬스를 공개했고, 향후 수년간 약 26개 SPAC을 추진할 계획이라고 소개. 투자 논리(샤마스 투자 메모 인용): 미국 의료비 연 3.65조 달러, GDP의 약 18% 수준이며 1인당 지출은 50년간 31배 증가했으나 기대수명은 정체·감소 추세라는 주장. 클로버헬스는 고령자 대상 민간 메디케어 어드밴티지(MA) 시장을 공략, 해당 시장 약 2700억 달러에서 5년 내 약 5900억 달러로 성장 전망. 월마트 파트너십과 소프트웨어 기반 비용 절감(입원·응급 방문 감소)을 강조. 실적·밸류에이션: MA 가입자는 약 2년간 약 5배 증가, 이후 2년 내 약 2배 증가 전망. 매출은 2019년 약 5억 달러, 2021년 예상 약 8.8억 달러. 기업가치 약 37억 달러, 2021년 매출 기준 PS 약 4.2배, 2023년 기준 약 2.1배. 현재 적자이며 흑자 전환은 3년 후 목표. 시장 반응: 상장 후 한 달 차트에서 고점 대비 조정, 당일 약 11% 하락 언급. 유튜버는 이 종목을 직접 매수하지 않겠다는 입장. 리스크/조건: 수익성 없는 현금 소진 기업이며, 저금리 종료 시 고평가 리스크 가능성. 제약사 대비 헬스케어 서비스 기업 구분 언급. 샤마스 후속 SPAC에 대한 투자 의향은 간접 시사. 출연자 전망: 유튜버 개인 의견으로 클로버헬스 및 후속 SPAC에 긍정적이나 본인 매수 계획은 불명확. 샤마스 자체 투자 결정은 발언 범위 밖.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so very welcome here to this breaking news guys okay as you might know one of the in my personal opinion one of the smartest people on wall street shamas pali happy tia is uh launching about 26 spec companies in the next couple of years and decades to come now what does it mean this means that we are seeing every now and then a brand new spark company okay by shamas an announcement and i just was you know chilling at the pool here in dubai because as you might know i'm back in dubai and uh shamash just broke on twitter that he is revealing what is his next spec ipoc is the now uh formal name for this really interesting company this time it's health it's the health industry that he want to disrupt the 10x opportunity in his opinion now i just jumped off on cnbc because it was just live on cnbc and i wrote down a couple of notes to make it summarize in just 10 minutes what you need to know and i posted this on my instagram as well so please go and follow me on instagram so you don't miss this kind of breaking news ever again wolf of dubai danny very very easy just type it in follow me there and you know um you will never miss something similar again now the company is called clover health it's not yet profitable they're expecting profitably profitability in uh three years from now so uh just to force for you to let you know uh you would invest here on a money burning business as of today okay however um you know what i really like about shamas is he is trying you know to put things into a very very easy perspective which i think it's fantastic and he doing it super very well and you know he explaining it in such a way that you think wow this guy is not only super smart and i would be so smart like him but you always think you know there is something very very right about this what he has about to say so i think it's super interesting what he is trying always to show us in this new spark world the king of specs if uh if i might say this here for the very first time uh you know 26 spec from i p o a until ipo z now we are at ipoc so you can see where this is going he's about to own five to ten percent as my knowledge goes and my you know memories from at the uh recent cnbc interview and let's dive in because he has something that i really like so every time he investing into a new opportunity you know we will go through this and what it thinks what i think and you know what what what is really important here to understand but then i want to want to go and show you this this kind of one letter or one page investment case is really super interesting because it shows you what he is looking for when entering a new investment so here's the investment thesis for clover health disrupting health care by delivering better outcomes at lower costs so summary health care is a basic human right and as a result has become an enormous part of the economy american spends 3.65 trillion us dollars this is a huge number guys okay huge market in health care expenses in 2009 representing almost 18 of gdp so all of this value that we are creating in the usa um the over a whole year um it's going 80 of it going into healthcare can you imagine 20 almost a fifth of all the money now in the past 50 years per capita spent in healthcare has increased 31 percent 31 times okay this is huge um however despite so spending so much money our life expand ex expectancy is shrinking and our health is deteriorating so what what i don't understand is i think you know this is like a general um sentence because i think that you know he's speaking about the last 50 years but i don't think that the life expectancy is actually went shrinking from 1950 but you know we can google that in a second however um spending so much money okay americans and now live less than 80 years of age this is much less than other countries and most of these diseases are people that you know older of an age like 60 years and and older um what is also important what was here important i think over the next decade our belief is that clover health will build large market adoption and shareholder returns by bending the core in health care delivering better outcomes at lower cost so the first thing when i saw this and i read this before was that okay now this is quite interesting because you know we are in a very very interesting part of history right now right health is now being on the focus right now here so i think you know playing this card of health and health care and make it for everyone better and and more affordable is something that i really like so so this is a quite interesting field um however let's move forward into the letter or investment thesis so once they or or their product is obviously here that they having a kind of software so he describes that it's also a tech company and not only a health company and people who are using it like doctors are having less waste a lower cost and can better manage their patients they have 20 second 22 fewer hospital visits and 23 fewer ar visits clover health initial market is medicare advantages private medicare for people over 65 years old m.a because they are the most frequent uses of health care and it's where improvements in incomes are most urgent needed okay so they are definitely focusing on that ma is a 270 billion market so also here a huge market in 2020 and expecting to grow to a 590 billion market by the next five years now um what else is here important they are ready to scale obviously right uh including a partnership with walmart and yeah some some kind of governmental associations now the next slide is also very important so as you can see from this slide definitely you can take away that it's not only a health company it's a it's a tech company as well uh their product are helping people to get better and and cheaper health care plus um it's a huge market especially the ma market so the people who are 65 years old and um older who are a more frequent user of healthcare are you know growing and to a 590 billion dollars market so huge market here um and the next and final slide is a little bit about the valuation and about the membership slash revenues so as you can see here uh it's a 3.7 oh let's start the in the top um so actually i really like the growth of uh you know the the the ma membership so as you can hear uh see that you know we almost five times in two years and then we double almost um in in the next two years again so the the growth is definitely interesting uh here in my personal opinion moreover then you have the revenues half a billion revenue in 2019 um and then expected in 2021 880 million so almost double then we had you know another doubling or even more in the next two years after that so this is also interesting to see and the enterprise value of uh 3.7 billion currently that this deal is based on um we having a kind of you know 42.2 ps ratio um if you were considering the estimated 2021 revenues and a 2.1 if you considering the 2023 expected revenues now you might think right now well why they are basing this on revenues in the future and i think shamas said it a couple of weeks ago which i think is very important to understand you know he says and claims in his personal opinion and i agree on that actually that as long we see very cheap money on the market we will absolutely absolutely um needing to adjust to a more in the future looking um valuations right so if you are doing an evaluation or or doing an um investment make sure to absolutely think more into the future than when we had you know 10 years back or or 15 years back lower interest rate and and some of those analysts cannot adjust to that and you know that's why they are missing on so many opportunities like tesla for example or other companies um and uh you know i'm i'm quite exciting for that because it's a totally uh you know a game into the you know health industry i have to be honest though you know i i i kind of always um don't like the health um area but you have to you know really differentiate here because some companies like you know pfizer they are producing medication to you know go out or regular on or whatsoever um and then you are having on the other side the healthcare provider which you know is more of a clover so it's not really you know uh both is the same i don't like to to to invest into those that create a medicine because it can be so volatile guys they can say you know we having this monstrous cancer saving life-saving medication and in the end you know it doesn't pass the um uh the the fda approvals okay so while i'm opening here yahoo finance and showing you that uh make sure to stamp up this would be highly appreciated i know some people are asking is it me no that's not me but you know i always appreciating a thumb up and also obviously i am appreciating if you're following me on instagram wolf of dubai danny just for those who just switched in so let's have a look um you can find this company and invest into this company already um by looking for the let me let me put myself here on the screen as well as you can see here the futures are quite up so um ipoc is currently uh 11 in the negative guys okay so if you are on the hunt let's see what the uh one months chart you know the lowest here was 24th of september 11.

02. so 11 you know and then basically uh now somewhere around 12 12 68 before today and then we lost about three 11.36 percent it seems that the people you know don't like that company that much now we shall see in the next couple of days how this will change so um i'm staying a little bit away from that uh just because it's not my type of investment you know if you like health if if you you know seeing this this tapping in into this huge health um market that is absolutely insane by those numbers then you are very welcome for sure um there will be some 23 other ipos by shamas and i'm sure i'm guaranteeing you that i'm definitely investing in one of them uh which one exactly i will let you know in my daily vlogs and live stream thank you very much for tuning in and have a very very successful uh day on the stock market you