저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 부양책 협상 결렬로 중소기업·서민 경제는 타격이 크지만, 주식시장은 대형·필수소비·주택·온라인 관련 기업 중심으로 V자 회복을 이어갈 것이라는 관점. 시장 상황: 당일 바이든·트럼프 관련주가 함께 급등한 뒤, 부양책 협상 결렬 소식에 다우 약 36포인트, 나스닥 약 1.57% 하락. 부양책 협상: 펠로시 하원의장과 므누친 재무장관의 협상이 대선 이후로 미뤄질 가능성이 커졌고, 트럼프 대통령이 대선 후 더 나은 법안을 원한다고 발언. 파월 연준 의장은 추가 부양을 촉구. 경제 전망: 크레이머는 대선 전 부양책 없이도 중소기업 상당수가 버티기 어렵다고 우려하며, 빠른 부양책이 나중의 더 큰 부양책보다 낫다고 봄. 주택 관련: 팬데믹으로 도시에서 교외로의 이동이 이어져 주택 수요가 강세이며 주택 강세장이 지속될 것으로 봄. 모기지 금리가 낮은 점이 긍정적. 주택 강세장을 끝낼 수 있는 요인은 금리 급등 또는 실업률 급락뿐이며 당분간 가능성은 낮다고 판단. 홈디포·로우스 관련주에 호의적. 소매·자동차: 중소 소매업체 도산 시 홈디포·로우스·월마트·코스트코·타깃이 수혜를 볼 것으로 봄. 달러 스토어도 수혜. 자동차 관련으로는 그룹원오토모티브, 카바나, 오토네이션, 카맥스, 리프트 계열 중고차 판매업체와 포드를 언급. 재택·온라인 경제: 재택근무 및 자택 체류 경제 관련주 강세 지속 전망. 펠로톤 관련 언급. 아마존 프라임데이를 앞두고 조정을 아마존 매수 기회로 제시. 페덱스·UPS 등 택배주는 강세 유지 전망. 외식·헬스케어: 테이크아웃 전환에 성공한 얌브랜즈, 치폴레 등 체인점 수혜 예상. 리제네론 등 헬스케어 및 필수소비재 방어주 언급. 기술주: 기술주는 소비자보다 기업(엔터프라이즈) 수요에 의존하므로 부양책 결렬 영향이 제한적이라고 봄. 단기 조정 후 반등 가능성 언급. 경기침체 논쟁: 연말 전 어떤 형태든 구제금융이 있다면 경기침체는 아니라고 봄. 침체 대비 방어주로 펩시코, 존슨앤드존슨, 리제네론 제시. 리스크: 중소기업·항공·호텔·임대인과 세입자, 주 정부 재정 악화, 팬데믹 재확산과 겨울 대응 필요성. 주식시장과 실물경제 간 괴리가 커지는 점. 출연자 전망: 증시는 V자형 회복, 주택은 V자형, 자동차 일부 강세, 대형 유통은 침체 없이 성장. 중소 자영업은 실질적 고통이 지속될 것으로 봄.
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ig america other people to make friends i'm just trying to save you some money my job is not just entertaining but to educate teach put this one in context call me 1-800-743 cbc tweet me at jim cramer yesterday we had this bizarro session where everything went up both the biden stocks and the trump stocks obviously that was unsustainable we knew one of these guys had to lose but today we learned that nearly everyone loses when the president acts the stimulus negotiations until after the election slamming the averages dow seeking 36 points as we losing 1.4 nasdaq falling 1.57 the house of fame is a crushing disappointment for anyone who's lost their job or might be on the verge of losing their job because small businesses are running out of money and not just small businesses frankly the airlines felt like expired milk without bailout and you got to wonder what will happen to the 14 million odd people and their families who work in the hospitality industry that is just let's just say inhospitable plus there were plenty of investors hoping to surf the wave of new money from washington i don't worry about them i don't care about them the market thrives in liquidity president just pulled the plug on an ocean of cash again i don't care about them i care about the small and medium-sized businesses and the workers that are now going to be laid off speaker pelosi and treasury secretary mnuchin seem like they're making a lot of progress right getting a lot of phone calls getting close to a deal at least until president trump arrived back in the white house from walter reed medical center earlier today fed chief jay pal a reasonable man practically begged elected leaders for more stimulus something that speaker pelosi echoed soon after the president stopped the negotiations but it was too late as trump tweeted that he was adamant he put through a better bill after the election when he presumes he'll have a stronger hand all right so what's really going on here i mean that's the rhetoric we all heard the rhetoric right it's like the political stuff i think the president's taking a calculated risk betting the economy is actually stronger than most of us believe he thinks we've got a v-shaped recovery and he counts it every chance he gets including a couple of tweets today now there's a view that is actually shared by many republicans in the senate that's why i told you the senate was never on board if you can't come up with a compromise four weeks before people go to the polls i don't know if it'll be easier to do a month from now but let's assume that's a real possibility can small business owners actually hold on until after the election can the airlines make it despite their cascading losses how about the hotels are in rears or the renters who can't afford to pay their landlords who can't afford to pay the banks or the state governments that are bleeding from their eyeballs because of the pandemic personally i think a good stimulus built today is better than a great stimulus bill a month from now although i say this as someone who just had to close my restaurant because it's impossible to make money in this environment so what's the point so why is the president much less worried than the chairman of the federal reserve well the president's aides are conscious that many areas of the economy are red hot right now and they'll stay hot regardless of what the government does plus don't forget the parts of the economy that need help are small businesses and they don't trade publicly so their weakness rarely filters through the stock market which is why the president could tout in his tweets that were record highs although we are a little off particularly after today now how about the parts of the economy that are in fuego well these are the ones that the president's right they don't need help first housing as long as we have to live with the pandemic there's going to be an exodus of people moving from the cities to the suburbs and those people need homes as diana look said today the market is red hot it doesn't hurt that mortgage rates are very low if you still have your job and you can work from home you can buy a nice place in the suburbs and fill it with great furniture and appliances and outdoor heaters and fire pits so you don't give each other something that now is being considered like a bad flu because let's say captain trips is a bad flu uh but you're going to be stuck all day there so why not regardless of the cold build out something outside your house that's what a lot of people are doing now i like the housing housing related stocks here especially the stocks of companies that sell their merchandise at lowe's at home depot the only thing that can stop the housing bull market and uptick in interest rates or major downtick unemployment but for the moment neither of those seem likely i'm going to stress once again so people understand that there's something in here you know besides an undershirt like if you had like a heart you would know that you only get to take advantage of the housing bull market if you have a job and if you don't you can't get the loan so i'm conscious of that okay i'm not like wow what a bozo heartless guy creamers second i lived in my car believe me i didn't i would have loved the loan second home depot lowe's they benefit from the collapse of the stimulus talks because they benefit because their smaller independent competitors are unlikely to survive without a bail so they're not they're now donors see these guys these guys take advantage because they get they're donating these smaller guys who needed the stimulus or donating business to them same goes for target walmart costco you can't get stronger than these guys now that so much the competition will default the death of mom-and-pop retailers may be bad for the country but it's phenomenal for these stocks just like we said technology advanced like 10 years because of this well you know what the collapse of the small business advanced like 10 years i say with a smirk also a huge one for the dollar stores because no stimulus means more people have to trade down to the cheapest stores to make ends meet those are the ones that don't have the jobs third is autos just like housing this is all about the excess of the suburbs did you see group one automotive today i did that stock worth 16 sales were so strong like uh just like carvana just like autonation lithium motors car max these mostly used car retailers are exactly what you need if you move away from the city and you're afraid to corporal or take the dreaded mass transit you want to stretch the field buy some ford which is the beginning of a nascent turnaround fourth vast laws of the stay-at-home economy are still working if you have enough money guess what well you're back on your peloton exercise machine that's the lines for that one um uh you are you're worried about covid and most people still are by the way then you're using the internet for most of your shopping so i think today's pullback gives you a terrific opportunity to buy the stock of amazon right ahead of amazon prime day next week yeah i mean it's not a club today there's a reason both fedex united parcel held up just today parcels are an unstoppable force in the era of a really heavy flu at least if you have regeneron's custom cocktail and not a margarita or a vodka martini those are three namely three cocktails of which one helps you oh and don't forget the restaurant chains that are pivoted to take out delivery like yum brands starred in chipotle they kill it with no stimulus to keep smaller restaurants afloat these chains will be the last man standing in the industry not quite from my diet but very good for their stocks all that said i don't want to be too lib here we could really use that stimulus package without one numbers will have to come down for a whole host of companies but not technology not technology because most tech supports the enterprise not the consumer and the enterprise as i've said is doing quite well you can watch those sink a bit the tech stocks and then pick up some weakness because what happens they go down tomorrow everybody's scared to buy them and by three o'clock tomorrow they'll be okay and start picking in the next day or they're fine some people argue that the lack of stimulus means we're headed for a recession i don't think that's true as long as we get some kind of bail out by the end of the year but if you think we are headed for a session i'll give you another menu it's straightforward you buy pepsico con aggro just pour great quarter we add them on tv remember uh cable soup it's too big cheap tomorrow we had them on two bristol mars we had that one just the other day it was pretty good it was yesterday jnj the aforementioned regeneron uh when it comes to the compelling recession resistant or recession-proof stocks you know don't have to get there they are we're living in a tale of two cities economy the part that's hurting doesn't really matter to the stock market the part that's working is mostly publicly traded companies we have a v-shape recovery in those companies v-shape recovery in housing u-shaped recovery and autos some of the largest retailers never even experienced a downturn think walmart amazon costco target home depot and lost no downturn in fact they have enjoyed an essential upturn replete with earnings that hailey beat the estimates because they were essential and all the little guys not essential all these work regardless what happens in washington same goes for cramer covered 19 remote work stocks they all did well today and the food and drug place that i mentioned because the pandemic's flaring up again the president may have ripped his mask off yesterday but both most of us will be uh putting them on extra tight this fall the bottom line when it comes to the rest of the economy what can i say you can't buy stocks in small medium-sized businesses that are about to go under here that pain is real even if it's not reflected by the stock market because you can invest in your local convenience store or your watering hole or a clothing shop or workout studio or optician or brasserie or diner or anything else that really needed the relief because that's no longer in the cartg
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