저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 52주 고점 대비 크게 하락(약 $134), 2분기 실적(8/3 발표) 전 매수 여부를 다룸. 1분기 매출 성장률 85%, 연간 가이던스 71%로 상향, 미국 상업 매출 133% 성장, 영업이익률 46%, 현금 80억 달러·무부채. 현 주가는 내재가치 약 $152 대비 저평가로 평가. 실적 전 매수는 위험하므로 자금을 반으로 나눠 실적 전후 분할 매수를 제안. AI 자체 구축 우려는 과도하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Palantir shares are still significantly below their 52-week high, trading at $134 per share at the time of this video recording. The company plans to release quarterly financial results on August 3. And investors want to know whether they should buy these stocks before this financial report is released.
So, I'll answer that question in this video. I will also highlight key points that investors should pay attention to in the Palantir report. As a shareholder, I will tell you how I plan to act on this report and what I intend to do with my share, first of all, I'm surprised that Palantir shares have fallen so much , given the excellent results of recent quarters.
I think this is because the share price rose too much and too quickly even before the company showed great results. Most of the expectations for its excellent performance have already been built into the share price. This is what I also talked about regarding SpaceX and Tesla. Share prices are rising very strongly, although the company has not yet demonstrated corresponding results.
This already takes into account future expectations. So when the stock price jumped above $175-200 per share, I warned investors that Palantir shares were too expensive at that point. I didn't buy Palantir stock until earlier this year, when the price dropped to around $100 a share. That's when I added Palantir stock to my portfolio.
At that price, I found it a much more attractive proposition than when they were $200 a share. The results were excellent in the last completed quarter , which ended March 31: revenue growth accelerated to 85%. This was the company's best growth in history. Typically, as a company grows in size, its growth rate slows down due to the law of large numbers.
It 's harder to grow a business by 85% when it's already worth billions. It's easier to show 85% growth when the business only generates 100 million in revenue. The company raised its annual revenue expectations to 71%. Considering that the year turned out to be much better than they initially expected.
This is 10 points higher than their previous forecast made just 3 months ago. They raised their forecast from 61% year-over-year growth to 71% year-over- year growth. And this is due to their business in the US: revenue in the American segment grew by 104% , which is 19% more than in the previous quarter.
US commercial revenue, the category I believe in the most, grew 133% year- over-year and 18% quarter-over-quarter to $595 million. I think everyone knows that Palantir has a great business with the US government and several US government agencies. But what Palantir lacked until the last two years was corporate business and corporate revenue.
They had relatively few customers. The reason is how expensive Palantir's services were. Businesses wanted Palantir's services, but couldn't afford them. Recently, Palantir has been able to go into these companies with their field engineers, show them the value they create, and convince them that they are worth such a premium price.
So they accelerated their expansion into the US commercial market. And this is the category I believe in the most, because there are much more opportunities in business than in the government sector. Is n't that right? There are a relatively limited number of government agencies that Palantir can access, but there are millions of companies that Palantir can expand into.
In the last quarter, they closed contracts totaling $2.4 billion, up 61% from last year. These are phenomenal numbers for any business, let alone a company with multi-billion dollar turnover. Residual value of transactions in the US commercial sector. Remember, this is what later translates into revenue, which was $4.92 billion, up 112% from last year and 12% from the previous quarter.
And it's not as if Palantir is offering discounts, incentives, or promotions to get customers to sign a contract. They generate extraordinary profits . Operating profit margin 46% for the last quarter. $754 million in GAAP operating income. This is truly an impressive business. I've been waiting a long time to buy Palantir shares, but they've been too expensive for a long time, and I didn't get the chance until earlier this year when the price dropped closer to $100.
I managed to buy the shares almost at the very bottom. So I'm really glad I was able to get these shares at this price. Operating cash flow, 55% margin, totaling 899 million, and their balance sheet is absolutely perfect: $8 billion in cash and marketable securities with no debt. Because they are a government contractor , they are not yet allowed to buy back their own shares.
So this money just sits on their balance sheet. I would like the management team to find a profitable use for this capital. Perhaps it will be an acquisition or some incentives for smaller businesses to access Palantir services . I'm not sure what that will look like. That's why I don't get paid big money to be CEO of Palantir.
But maybe something like a deal for smaller companies that may not have the cash flow and can't afford Palantir. Maybe some kind of deal where they get a stake in the company. Something similar to what we see with Nvidia and some AI companies, where they invest in their customers so that they have the capital to buy their services.
Something along those lines. $8 billion is a lot of money for a company with zero debt and very high profitability and cash flow margins. They don't need to keep all that money in a bank account , getting only three, four, or a maximum of 5% from short-term government securities. Looking ahead, they are forecasting $1.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter with an operating profit of just over $660 million.
This would again mean an operating margin of over 50%, another quarter of excellent growth. I think most investors expect Palantir to beat these expectations and perhaps even raise its full-year revenue forecast. Then again , Palantir shareholders are used to the company consistently beating and raising forecasts, and this quarter is no different.
So if a company doesn't do this, it could be a disappointment. Of course, management also needs to address issues related to artificial intelligence and agent-based AI. There is growing concern among investors that large enterprises may invest more in their own AI and will not want to hire Palantir's services.
Of course, this fear was highlighted by IBM's recent announcement, where they stated that their revenue growth would be significantly slower than expected. That's because their clients are increasingly spending more on servers, hardware, memory, and storage to build their own AI capabilities, rather than on IBM services.
So investors like me will want to know if the same trends are affecting Palantir. I don't expect that to be the case, because right now AI companies are trying to act independently. This has limited value. They are still experimenting. This is mostly research and development. They have not yet found a strategy in which the use of artificial intelligence would be profitable.
Many companies are trying, experimenting, trying different options, but there is little concrete evidence on exactly how and to what extent the use of AI improves profitability. Palantir offers more specific solutions. They can come in and tell you exactly how to use your own data to optimize operations and improve your competitive advantage .
They can send their experts, apply these services, and you will get concrete results. They sell ready-made solutions. They don't sell experiments or research and development. So companies that want to gain this competitive advantage right now will still use Palantir's services, while investing in their own developments so as not to depend on them in the future.
If they are lucky enough to find a solution where they can apply agent-based AI or their own developments without the help of Palantir, perhaps one day they will say: “Thank you for your services, but we no longer need your help.” I think that's unlikely. Many companies are trying to find this right now , but I don't see much evidence that they are actually finding these improvements and effective solutions.
These are mostly experiments. We see many companies limiting the use of AI by their employees as the costs become uncontrollable and the benefits are not always tangible. So they say, "Okay, we'll put a cap on it and limit it to a certain level." If it were guaranteed to make a profit, companies wouldn't put any restrictions on it, right?
If you spend a dollar and you know for sure that it will bring you a dollar and a half in income, you will not limit your spending. You say: " Go all out." " Use it as much as possible, because for every dollar spent, we get a dollar and a half back ." But with current costs, they don't know what the return on investment is.
For now, this is just an experiment. Therefore, they want to limit the scope of these experiments, which I classify as research work. Research and development is often a "zero return" where you invest 10, 100 million or a billion depending on the size of the company, and nine times out of ten nothing comes of it.
You get zero. This is money spent without any profit. But maybe one in ten times you succeed, and a big breakthrough happens: either a new product comes out that generates tens of billions of dollars in revenue, or you improve operations that cuts costs by billions of dollars, and because of that, the return on investment becomes incredible.
So, this is a situation where one breakthrough can pay for 50 failures in research and development. And that's where, in my opinion, most companies are using AI right now —in the research and development phase, in the experimental phase, where they might hit the jackpot, and that one positive outcome will pay for the other 50, providing the expected reward .
But in the meantime, they are already using Palantir to gain advantages and strengthen their competitiveness right now. And I don't see that changing anytime soon , especially for large companies that can afford Palantir's services. Now let's look at the cost estimate. After this year's sell-off, Palantir shares are 64, which is close to the lower limit of prices at which these shares could be bought in 2026.
In fact, this is close to the minimum levels at which shares could be purchased since 2025. You would have to go all the way back to 2024 to find a period when Palantir shares could be consistently bought at a lower price. But that was before the company's growth rate accelerated to its current levels.
Before the current contractual obligations appeared, the company's balance sheet grew to $8 billion in cash, compared to $2–3 billion previously. So, the business today is much better than it was two years ago, but you get it at a similar valuation. That's what I really like about Palantir right now.
Similarly, I calculated the value using my discounted cash flow model and concluded that the business is worth about $152. While the current market price is $134. So, from a discounted cash flow perspective, the stock still looks undervalued. They also look undervalued on a forward price-to- earnings basis.
So, in my opinion, this is a buying opportunity. The only question is whether to buy before the earnings report or after it? And I don't see any good reason to buy just before the report. News may appear during the publication of the report that will cause the stock price to collapse. Or events may occur that cause the stock price to rise sharply.
I estimate the chances as 50/50. I don't care what to do in this situation. So I would say that if you want to buy Palantir stock, take your capital, your desired stake, divide it in half and buy half before the earnings report and the other half after.
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