저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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마이크론 주가가 약 $930으로 고점(~$1,200) 대비 하락한 상황에서, 2027년 EPS 추정치 $155와 forward P/E 가정을 바탕으로 연말 주가를 전망. 기본 시나리오는 P/E 하락으로 $1,050~$1,350이며 현재가 대비 약 29% 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 상방 요인은 중국·한국산 칩에 대한 무역장벽과 AI 혁신, 하방 요인은 하이퍼스케일러 CAPEX 축소와 PC·스마트폰 수요 파괴. 본인이 Buy 등급을 유지 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
As of the time of this video recording, Micron shares are down to $930, compared to highs of around $1,200 per share. Because of this drop, I'm getting a lot of questions about Micron stock. Investors ask me if I think the company's stock price will continue to decline, or will it recover and go up?
Specifically, I will give my answer as to where I think Micron's stock price will be by the end of this year and show the details I use to make this prediction. So, one of the estimates needed for this stock price forecast is Micron's expected earnings per share in the 2027 calendar year. That needs adjusting, as Wall Street analysts who follow Micron shares forecast the company's earnings per share for its fiscal year ending in August.
So this creates a dilemma if you want to make a stock price forecast for a company whose fiscal year is different from the calendar year. Fortunately, Micron's earnings per share in fiscal 2027 and 2028 are not too different. After significant earnings per share growth expected in the fiscal year ending in August and the fiscal year ending in August 2027, Wall Street analysts are predicting a significant slowdown in Micron's growth rate.
You can see here that Micron's EPS should be growing rapidly for several years, right? Remember, in 2024, Micron earned just $1.23 in earnings per share, which skyrocketed to $8.09 in the fiscal year ending August 2025, and is projected to rise again to $73.32 in the 2026 calendar year. Sorry, in fiscal year 2026, and it is expected to more than double again in fiscal year 2027 before slowing down and increasing by just 9.5% in the fiscal year to August 2028.
You're probably asking yourself why the forecasts suggest a slowdown in earnings per share growth in fiscal year 2028? This is likely due to the fact that EPS is already starting at such a high level of $150, combined with a large amount of new shipments coming in both the memory segment and partially the storage segment, which limits the company's ability to charge higher prices and may even lead to price cuts, but they will also experience an increase in the number of units sold.
So, to forecast Micron's earnings per share for calendar year 2027, I will use a weighted average of expectations for 2027 and 2028, which I will share with you in a moment. Now, another metric needed for this stock price prediction is Micron's current market multiple, which is the subject of much controversy.
It currently 12.65, which is higher than normal for Micron as investors view the company as a cyclical business. So when earnings per share are rising rapidly, as they have been recently, investors predict that it will not last long, that these are peak earnings of the cycle, that is, the limit, and the company will slow down and fall, as it has during every previous semiconductor boom.
But there is a lot of discussion and controversy that this time things are different. That thanks to Micron signing long-term strategic agreements with customers for several years, Micron shares may no longer be as cyclical as they used to be. That there has been a structural shift in the company's business that requires a revision of the company's multiple valuation to a higher level.
But that remains to be seen. I believe we are still in the very early stages of this AI boom and the development of AI infrastructure. It seems like there are big changes happening every month. There are so many changes, and I think it's too early to conclude that the company truly deserves a structural revision to its forward P/E ratio.
So, with all the necessary estimates and assumptions in place, I can move on to scenario analysis to determine the potential for Micron stock between now and the end of the year. As I mentioned, I use a weighted average of the 2027 and 2028 earnings per share forecasts to arrive at a calendar year earnings per share estimate for Micron of $155 .
You can see that this is a combination of $150 expected in fiscal year 2027 and $ 164 expected in fiscal year 2028. I calculated the weighted average and projected earnings per share of $155 for the 2027 calendar year. The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 12.65. So if all goes according to plan, the stock will continue to trade at a forward P/E of 12.65, and the business will deliver on its EPS target of $155, the market price could reach $1,960 per share by the end of the year.
This would be a phenomenal increase compared to the current share price of $931. However, I do not consider this to be the most likely scenario. I see the most likely scenario as a decrease in the company's forward multiple . But I could be wrong, and the forward P/E ratio could continue to rise if it turns out that a structural revaluation is indeed needed and this ratio is headed upwards.
This could lead to a rapid rise in the share price to over $2,325. That would be a phenomenal improvement. Of course, I'm rooting for this, as I have a Buy rating on Crown shares and currently recommend them as a Buy as well, so I'd be happy to see the share price soar to those levels. However, as I said, I think the forward P/E ratio will most likely decline.
And if it falls to 10, the market price may rise, but to a slightly lower level . It's probably worth saying: to a much lower level, but it would still be an impressive return on the stock, rising from its current price of $931 to $1,550 per share. Even if the forward P/E ratio drops to single digits, to eight, the stock price could still rise to over $1,240 per share.
So, the key here is that the company's earnings per share remain at the level necessary to achieve these high figures, that the company continues to generate phenomenal growth and profits from the sale of its memory and storage components, maintaining high prices and stable demand. So, with all of this in mind, what is my baseline forecast?
Where do I think the stock price is likely to end up in 2026? Well, I think the price will be in the range of $ 1,050 to $1,350 per share. Thus, the average valuation gives an upside potential from the current price of about 29%, which in my opinion is an excellent risk-reward ratio for investors at current market prices.
But, of course, there is much greater growth potential outside this range. So let me share two growth factors that could lead to Micron's stock price being significantly higher than my projections , and then I'll talk about two downside factors. The first growth factor is the obvious strengthening of trade barriers for external manufacturers of these technologies, which are currently SK Hynix and Samsung.
If the US and the current administration impose stricter restrictions on foreign chipmakers, it could be a huge boost for Micron. The company will be able to charge much higher prices because the market supply of its products will be significantly reduced. The current administration has already demonstrated a willingness to impose trade barriers, even if this could have significant negative consequences and cause serious disruptions.
They showed willingness to take such radical actions. So this is certainly a likely scenario. If trade barriers for SK Hynix and Samsung are indeed implemented and remain in place, it could easily send Micron's stock price above $2,000 by the end of this year. I would even assume it would exceed $2,500 per share in this unlikely , but still possible scenario.
The next positive factor I will mention is innovation. And these innovations don't necessarily have to come directly from Micron. Innovation can come from outside Micron. Innovations that lead to increased demand for the company's products. Innovations may come from the energy sector, where increased energy supply reduces the cost of operating data centers, which increases the interest of hyperscalers in building them.
The growth in the number and plans for new data centers could lead to increased demand for Micron products, which could significantly boost the stock price above my forecast. The AI industry is developing so rapidly that this is a very likely scenario. I believe that a scenario where innovation drives up stock prices is much more likely than trade barriers, as we see the rapid development of AI thanks to large language models, chip manufacturers, energy suppliers, and legislative initiatives.
Innovations in the AI industry are emerging from all sides, because there is a lot to earn here. These hyperscalers spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually, approaching a trillion. Therefore, there are many businesses and entrepreneurs who are eager to receive some of these funds. When so many smart people try to get involved in this field, innovation is inevitable due to so much attention and interest.
Okay, but not everything is so rosy. There are scenarios where the share price could be significantly lower than my 2026 forecast. The biggest negative factor is the reduction in capital expenditures by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle. If these companies start talking about budget optimization and that their AI investments are not delivering the expected returns in their earnings reports due in late July or early August, or perhaps in subsequent reports later this year, they may try to stretch, pause, or postpone some of the spending.
Any talk of reducing, postponing, or stretching capital expenditures could cause Micron's stock price to fall well below the range I'm forecasting. One reason for Micron's rapid growth in earnings per share is that the price per unit of production has increased significantly. If hyperscalers reduce their costs, demand will fall, the supply- demand balance will no longer be so favorable for Micron, and this could cause the stock to fall below my forecast.
The second negative factor is the destruction of demand, and this is an interesting economic topic. When prices rise, according to the basic rate of the economy, demand falls and supply increases, as manufacturing companies, receiving a higher price per unit, seek to produce more products in order to earn more profit.
On the other hand, high prices reduce demand as customers forced to pay more review their plans, make adjustments, and buy less. This is already happening in the PC and smartphone industries, where memory and storage are key components. Manufacturers are already reacting: for example, Apple has announced significant price increases for its product portfolio, with the exception of the iPhone.
And when customers see these higher prices in stores when buying Apple products , they say, "No, thanks." We will wait. It's happening in the PC industry, it's happening in the smartphone industry . Demand in these categories is falling, not critically yet, but the process has already begun. If this demand disruption extends beyond the PC and smartphone sectors and spills over into the data center industry, where Micron makes the bulk of its profits, it could cause the stock price to fall below the range I'm forecasting.
So I'm curious to know what you think about it. Do you think my price forecast is accurate, overpriced, or underpriced? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts. By the way, if you want to access my price forecast tables, as well as buy, hold, or sell ratings, you can do so by sponsoring my channel at the Investor level or higher.
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