저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD는 연초 대비 2배 이상 올라 $518 수준이며, 2027년 EPS 추정치 $13.20 기준 선행 PER 69.78은 역사적 평균과 경쟁사 대비 과도하다고 봄. 선행 PER가 35~45로 하락할 것으로 가정해 2026년 말 목표가를 $475~550로 제시하고 현 주가 대비 상승여력이 제한적이라 'hold' 하향. 상방 촉매는 OpenAI/Anthropic IPO와 에이전틱 AI 혁신, 하방 촉매는 하이퍼스케일러 capex 축소와 CPU 경쟁 심화.
다듬은 글
AMD shares have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, rising to over $518 per share. At the time of this writing, the HMIK AI revolution has been a positive boom for AMD stock investors. Investors are now asking me where I think AMD stock will end up this year? What will the price be by the end of 2026?
I will answer this question in this video . You can see here the price dynamics of AMD shares, which accelerated in the middle of the year, but stagnated somewhat in recent weeks after reaching the mark of over $500 per share. It was difficult for her to catch the next catalyst that would push the stock higher.
So, to make this stock price forecast, I'm going to need a few estimates and a few assumptions, and I'll share with you the numbers I come up with. First of all, I need an estimate of the company's earnings per share for fiscal year 2027. According to Wall Street analysts who follow AMD, they estimate the company will earn $13.20 per share in 2027 .
These are Wall Street analysts who follow the company and understand it best. Additionally, I need to get AMD's forward price-to- earnings ratio, which at the time of this writing is 69.78. This is the most expensive or almost the most expensive stock of this company in the last few years. And I don't think the valuation margin will remain that high in the future.
In fact, if you compare AMD shares to those of Nvidia, one of its main competitors, then according to this valuation metric, AMD is trading at almost three times the price of Nvidia. Just to demonstrate how much enthusiasm for AMD stock has grown in 2026. So, now that we have estimates and assumptions, I can offer you my scenario analysis spreadsheet, where we look at the four most likely target price scenarios for AMD in 2026.
And then I'll list two bullish catalysts and two bearish catalysts that could cause AMD's stock price to move outside of the range I estimate both to the upside and the downside. So, the 2027 EPS estimate I shared with you is $13.20, and the current forward price- to-earnings ratio is $69.78. If all else remains the same and the company continues to meet these earnings per share targets, and its forward P/E ratio remains at its current level, AMD's stock price could end the year at a whopping $921 per share.
However, I don't think this is the most likely scenario out of these four. In fact, I believe AMD's forward price-to-earnings ratio will decline through 2026. So, if its forward P/E ratio drops to 55, the market price could increase, but by a smaller amount, to $726 per share. If the forward P/E ratio falls to 45, the market price may increase, but only to $594 per share.
And if the forward P/E ratio drops to 35, the market price could actually fall to $462 per share. Therefore, I believe that a decline in the forward P/E multiple is the most likely scenario for AMD over this year and next. I don't think a forward P/E multiple of 70 is sustainable for this business. This is significantly higher than historical averages according to this assessment indicator.
In fact, this is more than double the historical averages according to this valuation metric and more than triple the valuation of similar AI companies, including Nvidia, according to this valuation metric. So no matter how I measure this score, it looks stretched for AMD. So, to me, the trend looks downward, not upward, for AMD and its forward P/E multiple.
So, looking at all these possible scenarios, I think the forward P/E multiple will come down to a range of 45 to 35. And I think the stock price will end this year between $475 and $550. Well, when you compare that to the current market price of $517, it doesn't look like there's much upside potential left in AMD stock .
In fact, at the midpoint of this estimate, the share price is likely to remain relatively flat through 2026. And that's partly why I downgraded AMD stock to "hold" earlier this year, when the share price skyrocketed. I didn't see much potential for growth after the stock price skyrocketed. But remember, when the stock price dropped to around $190 at the beginning of the year , I recommended AMD as a great stock to buy at $190.
But when the stock price soared above $500 per share, it didn't look like an attractive opportunity from that point on. Most of the profits have already been used. And from this point on, the risk- reward ratio doesn't look attractive for AMD. So, with that in mind , what could be a few growth catalysts that could push the share price well above my 2026 estimate?
Well, the first of these will be the IPO of Open AI and/or Anthropic. If these two or one of them go public in 2026 with an IPO that proves successful, the company could raise tens of billions of dollars in capital with a market capitalization valuation of at or above a trillion dollars. This will be very positive for AMD, as Open AI and Anthropic are among the largest buyers of AI computing and their balance sheets are under significant strain.
These companies lose billions of dollars in the end. They are running out of money and need to constantly reach out to investors and ask for more and more money. So if they go public and can raise tens of billions of dollars in capital, and open up markets to re-enter the markets and raise more capital through equity sales, it will allow their businesses to invest in growth over the longer term before they have to become self-sustaining, which they are still a long way from now.
So, a successful IPO where they can raise tens of billions of dollars at a market cap of over $1 trillion would be incredibly positive for AMD, and it would lead to the stock price likely exceeding my 2026 target. The second catalyst for growth is another innovation in Agentic AI, another step up, right?
This is what we got earlier this year, a step up. Well, I have to say that late last year with the development of agent AI and then the acceleration earlier this year, that's what really created all this enthusiasm for AMD because of its position in the data center processor market. AMD is arguably at least second place or at best in the data center GPU market.
Nvidia has a huge lead in this category. I don't think AMD will significantly close this gap, but AMD is arguably the leader in the data center processor market. And so with agent-based AI, the processor is more important than it was before. And this creates a greater demand to add CPUs to your data center at a higher ratio compared to GPUs.
And that's what's creating all this enthusiasm for AMD. So if there's another innovation in agent-based AI that makes these agents more powerful, more efficient, more cost- effective, that could give AMD another tailwind, another catalyst for growth from here on out , and that could lead to the stock price going above what I'm estimating here for 2026.
But not everything is so smooth, is it? So let's look at some of the catalysts for the decline. In my opinion, the most likely outcome is a revision in capital expenditure figures from hyperscalers such as Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms. These companies have spent hundreds of billions of dollars building these data centers, and their balance sheets are stretched.
They had to turn to investors and ask for more money. Alphabet recently had to sell $85 billion worth of shares. They also borrowed tens of billions of dollars. And this applies to other companies in this category as well. They are borrowing tens of billions of dollars, something they haven't done in many years.
So, they don't generate enough cash flow annually to support these large data center construction budgets . What they need to do now is make a decision. Should we continue to spend these large sums of money on capital expenditures and generate negative free cash flow, reach out to investors, borrow money, and sell shares?
Are they saying enough is enough ? We have reached a point where we are comfortable with the capacity of our data centers and we are not investing any more. In fact, we are going to revise our capital expenditure figures downwards. We don't want to invest as much. Our balance sheets are limited. Our budgets are stretched.
And that's why we limit our investments. Now we will wait to monetize the investments we have already made. We will wait for our cash flow from operating activities to accelerate because we have invested so much in our capacity. And then, as our cash flow from operations improves, maybe we'll invest more in our data centers.
Or maybe we'll say we're comfortable with what we have and we don't want to invest anymore. So if we start hearing these kinds of discussions from hyperscalers, and these upcoming earnings reports or this upcoming earnings season in July, that will be very telling for investors, because we've already seen SoftBank, SpaceX, and Meta Platforms say they have excess compute capacity, and they're leasing it out .
Well , if Meta Platforms has excess computing power, why would they build more? Unless they want to change their business model and become cloud-native, where they make money by building data centers and renting out computing power. But this is not the business that Meta Platforms is in. This is a social media company trying to maximize the value proposition for social media users and advertisers, and entering this new category of, uh, building data centers and leasing them out is outside of its core competency .
I don't think investors will be happy with such a business model. So if this happens, it will be a significant disadvantage for AMD, as these are AMD's biggest customers. These are the customers who spend the most on building data centers, and they build them for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, which use the power of these data centers.
But if they have more than they need, then why should they continue building? So this is something AMD investors need to pay attention to. This could result in the share price being significantly lower than what I predict for 2026. And the second catalyst for shortcomings is competitive products . Currently, the CPU is not as secure as the GPU, especially because it does not have the same strong software support as the GPU.
One of the main reasons Nvidia has such a dominant market share in its data center GPU business is because of the software that supports the hardware. AMD also has pretty good software that supports their GPU hardware , but the software for the CPU is not as important as for the GPU . So you see how the competition in the CPU category is heating up.
Qualcomm announced the launch of a central processing unit. Uh, Intel is certainly a player in this market. She made significant investments. Nvidia will be a player in this market. Therefore, if more and more competitive products emerge and existing competition expands, this could hinder AMD's ability to capture significant market share.
Or, if it captures a significant share of the market, the prices it will be able to obtain for its products entering that market . So, I've updated my price forecast, my 2026 price target for AMD to a range of $475 to $550 per share. And I updated this goal on July 7, 2026. So, what you see here is my stock recommendation and price prediction table.
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