Stupid stupid stupid.

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소비 지출 증가는 인플레이션 때문이 아니라 소비자 낙관의 신호라는 주장. 세금일(4/18) 이후 반등과 실적시즌, 연준 발언 효과에 대해 낙관적 시각을 보임. 미국 금리 상승이 주택시장 압박으로 이어질 수 있으나 시차가 9~12개월이라 단기 영향은 작다고 봄. 마진 투자는 비추천하나 QQQ 피보나치 지지 기반 콜옵션 보유를 언급. 미국 주식 전반(미국 기술주) 강세에 우호적이며 미국에 베팅하지 말라는 입장.

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01. hey everyone okay a few things to talk about so yesterday i talked it was a red day yesterday and usually on red days if i say something positive i'm just a chill for my stocks or whatever freaking haters but anyway one of the recurring comments on my video yesterday was that well kevin of course spending is up because if inflation is up things are more expensive and therefore spending is up so we got to break this apart and talk about that we're going to talk about a huge catalyst that actually happened yesterday and uh kind of a lot of us i don't think realized it and it might be a reason as to why the market's green at the same time as those 10 years are rising again so let's talk about this first we need to break apart this this thesis that oh absolutely consumers are spending more solely because prices are up so an easy way to look at this in my opinion is this let's say you have a thousand dollars a month for uh consumer essentials and discretionaries maybe i don't know outside of your rent 500 of that or for essentials for yourself and uh 500 or for discretionaries right let's just say so now you have 500 to spend on discretionaries which could be restaurants junk from etsy new shoes i don't know save a couple months and buy a inexpensive computer or whatever right okay so what happens when there's inflation well when there's inflation you might still have you probably still have inflation doesn't take away your dollars it just makes them worth less right you still have that thousand dollars to spend however you're getting less stuff so maybe instead of saving for two months for computer you have to save three months which now means a month went by that you weren't able to buy new nike shoes or something else see when inflation happens it's not so much a matter of you spending more money it's more of a matter of you getting less now this is different for essentials right if you go to a grocery store yeah you're going to have to spend more money on essentials but when consumer spending is going up for non-essentials it's a sign that consumers are optimistic it's a sign that consumers are saying no you know what we're not worried about inflation being so entrenched that we think inflation's going to go up forever uh and we're back to the 70s and early 80s where we left the gold standard and oh my gosh the dollar was going to become completely worthless we're gonna have monetary regime change you know like the raidalio or whatever uh vision i don't think it's going to happen at least not any time soon and by soon i mean like the next decades that's a cool car yeah so anyway uh this is a very important thing to consider when you are an investor looking at inflation data and you're looking at okay what's the consumer doing oh they're spending more now sure partly there could be this rationalization that okay yeah i mean maybe it's a mix of both right i ran a poll on twitter and some of you a lot of you thought okay well it's probably a mix of both but if you read the comments yesterday it seemed like people were unanimously under the impression that consumer spending was only up that banks were reporting consumers were spending more and that banks are reporting that consumers actually have more money or are expected to have more money in their bank accounts this year uh because inflation's up it doesn't work that way it doesn't work that way that's wrong it does not work that way so uh this is this is actually very very positive that when we break it apart and we think about inflation we think about okay people maybe are spending more to either continue this lifestyle of consuming uh and they're they're purposefully finding more money to spend more to continue getting the same amount of goods yeah sure inflation could drive the need but they are willing to do that and they are consciously willing to spend more on non-essentials which is a great sign for trying to prevent a recession now i do think that uh internationally we're going to have some major issues with gdp in the course member live stream this morning we were talking about police helicopter in the course member live stream this morning we were talking about global gdp and the imf's reductions for gdp forecasts and look it's it's all a disaster it's all a problem globally we're gonna have massive issues but i also posted on twitter don't bet against america and i believe that i really believe you do not want to bet against america and this sort of economy and so what is that catalyst that happened yesterday that a lot of us kind of forgot about yeah so by the way my office is a disaster right now because i kind of tore it apart uh i got bored of my set so i'm making it new and i've also got bored of streaming on a mac because my mac sucks uh and then i sold all my apple stock okay well that's a different topic but anyway uh so the catalyst that happened yesterday was tax day a lot of people made a lot of money in 2021 oh did i mention no i didn't mention it yet oh this slide's wet this sucks anyway if uh you want to know more about this wet slide uh keep in mind that there is a coupon code at expires tomorrow tesla earnings day you can join me in those course member lives where i spend usually about 45 minutes to an hour every day answering your questions about what to do in your situation maybe hashtag not financial advice real estate market uh explaining deeper theses it's kind of fun i think you'll really enjoy it plus the lectures are absolutely amazing people say they're better than college so thank you to those of you who say that it's an honor so what's the catalyst well tax day okay so why does that matter well a lot of big money made a lot of money in 2021 because people were able to potentially take gains from 2020 investments in 2021 the real estate market killed it a lot of people made a lot of money in 2021 uh in 2020 not only because of stimulus but also because of investments they they were great two great years two phenomenal years 2020 was better than 2021 but still two phenomenal years and so i just paid lots of money in taxes uh close to 10 million dollars in taxes and and we might end up having to pay even a little bit more once we finalize everything uh kind of crazy but uh i'll post those on twitter probably later today so that way you could see the receipts screenshots or it didn't happen right can't really do that right now but anyway uh it's no surprise to me that yesterday was a red day and then today is is green because all right tax day is over this is wonderful this is phenomenal uh so what do we have going forward though this week well we've got some really important earnings we've got um netflix is going to set the stage here we've got a bunch of consumer staples reporting this week as well we had johnson johnson this morning they actually lowered guidance a little bit but a lot of them has to do with the vaccine and i'm starting to read their earnings call nothing super exciting that i'm seeing about the consumer and the j j but we'll see from some of the other consumer staples reporting netflix is obviously going to be big especially for disney after that miss in q1 i wouldn't be surprised if uh we get some nice beats and that's what i'm hoping for because we had ugly ugly uh earnings results for netflix that really set off a horrible q1 uh well it's q4 reported in q1 earnings season now we're in q2 reporting q1 and i'm quite optimistic now i don't want to sound like you know permabull uh i still recommend stay out of margin if you're in margin you better have a piggy bank to get out of it right away uh like for example i tiptoed slightly into margin but that's only because i'm waiting for some real estate transactions to close and then i'm getting out of that again uh which is totally fine you know that's that's money that i expect to come and it's it's not that big of a deal uh but i would not be going into margin to buy stocks although i mean if you were going to make bets on the market i'd rather make bets on the market at people make fun of me for this too the qqq fibonacci at bouncing off at 23.6 hey we got some some nice call options on qqq so maybe i'm a little biased but you know we'll see hopefully we get not only a good confirmed bounce today but that we have a really green week this week and we get uh we get some great earnings reports so we'll see i'll be covering netflix later today do keep in mind as this 10 year rises the housing market is going to come under pressure and that could affect consumer spend though but that's going to take a while it could take probably a yeah 9 months to 12 months for consumers to actually react to housing values potentially going down uh even slightly right so that's not sort of a larger near-term catalyst a bigger catalyst right now or obviously ukraine and the disaster and the don bus which we expected that this is all coming prior to uh victory day may 9th that that's a big catalyst to get the fomc meeting on the fourth cpi and jobs data before and after these dates are kind of intertwined in the first couple weeks of may so you've got you've got a lot of um a lot of catalysts coming up but uh this this next uh next couple weeks earnings season here in my opinion is gonna tell us are we gonna be able to get through all those catalysts uh without a hitch i suspect the answer is yes no guarantees of course but if we get really strong earnings here we're going to plow right through whether the fed raises 50 or not uh you know and remember this is another big thing too in other words we're going to plow through optimistically one of the things that everybody forgets about the fed is the fed doesn't want to use their tools they have to and they will raise rates but they don't want to have to use their tools to affect the economy they want to just be able to talk because if they can send you know ballard out and freak out the market a little bit uh and and some of these hawks out and rates go up and the economy tightens and demand wanes a little bit they're actually accomplishing their mission without doing anything and that is a surefire way to uh to to win for the fed and they realize how powerful they are now with just their words so pretty excited about that uh in other words that because we've seen so much tightening over the last few weeks and and red really coming out of the end of march which we you know we expected i thought we were gonna run maybe another five percent on the fib uh we didn't get fully to that two-thirds on qqq we got to about 60 but um hopefully now we get a nice rebound off of this and uh and and most of the tightening's already been priced in and then the fed talks to us at the beginning of may about exactly how hey market's already tightened quite a bit we're happy with this we're starting to see core cpi go down whatever pce numbers uh settling down that's their favored uh inflation measure anywho these are just some thoughts on the morning good luck out there i hope you make some money and remember every single one of them comes with a course member live streams and if i had to pick one right now i'd probably go zero to millionaire real estate investing because if you're watching this there's a good chance i would say probably i don't know maybe leave a comment down below but my guess is maybe 60 of you don't own real estate you should all be in zero to millionaire real estate like take take 12 years of of uh knowledge in in the real estate market uh going through going through crazy markets uh and up markets and down markets and uh and apply that to building your wealth you'll love it alright folks we'll see you bye