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President Trump wants to be one of the greatest presidents ever. Uh that's his objective and uh he's not going to get there by throwing the economy and into a recession and the stock market into a bare market. Uh and we're verging on both of those now. So, we're getting close to the line in the sand, uh, where I think his negotiations will kick into gear and will be more productive than what we've heard recently.
. Kathy Wood, a visionary investor discussing the nuances of the rolling recession. In this video, she'll explore market shifts, innovative strategies, and practical insights. Watch to uncover her analysis. Uh, Bitcoin to gold. Uh, gold has had a good run against Bitcoin. Uh, uh, Bitcoin, uh, did very well relative to gold in 23 and 24, uh, but not so this year.
Nonetheless, we do think over time Bitcoin will appreciate relative to gold. And as you can see, it has not broken uh the uptrend line. Um here is the S&P price relative to gold. Um this is an indicator that Charles GV of Gaucal is monitoring and he would not be surprised to see the S&P fall as it did in the 70s um uh relative to gold.
We would be surprised to see that, especially if we're right on all of the productivity and pent-up demand uh that uh fiscal and monetary stimulus um should unleash during the years ahead uh and the productivity gains associated uh with it. on the other hand uh he he would have expected uh this metric to go down as well but it is not uh uh the S&P is holding up relative to oil uh oil of course is capitulating recently as I mentioned because of uh Saudi Arabia's recent decision and just a few more charts here 10-year Treasury yield uh we we did break the downtrend and and that was a 40-year downtrend.
Uh probably in CO got to low of a level. Uh and we would not be surprised to be in a range now uh for for the next few years 2 and a half to 5% range perhaps. Uh but if we see more deflation thanks to uh the new technologies that are are um evolving uh the we wouldn't be surprised to see it settle a little lower than two and a half.
Uh but clearly the burden of proof is on us on that one. Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist Mike Mcloan has stirred conversation with his bold claim that Bitcoin might lose zero. Recalling NASDAQ composits peak around 5,000 before the dotcom crash, Mcloone draws a parallel with Bitcoin's historic rise to $100,000, suggesting a correction in risk on assets might be imminent.
According to Mloone, Bitcoin emerged from the market bottom following the global financial crisis and it has since led one of the greatest risk asset rallies in history. The tech happy NASDAQ 100 recently tumbled over 6% while Bitcoin held its ground defying expectations with US stock markets losing trillions amid global economic uncertainty.
Mcloone sees a catalyst for a significant draw down. Notably, even gold's impressive performance this year faced a massive drop, hinting that if Bitcoin continues its decoupling from stocks, the safe haven narrative might eventually prevail. It's a compelling perspective that invites further scrutiny.
This insight challenges traditional market views, sparking vibrant debates. It's logical if uh if we understand who President Trump is. Uh but as I've been going around um I've said not only is that uh our bet uh but we're we're seeing other reasons for the tide to change here. Uh according to the Atlanta Fed's GDP now uh survey the uh economy dropped contracted almost uh 4% that's real GDP growth sequentially at an annual rate in the first quarter.
That's a big drop. Now a lot of that could be imports uh ahead of the tariffs and surely that is the case. Uh the offset though would be a lot of them ending up in inventory. So there could be a lag there. I don't know. Uh I would say that in the second quarter the likelihood of a negative quarter is increasing here just because of the amount of uncertainty.
Uh well, we know that about 30% of the labor force is probably wondering if um if it's going to keep uh its jobs or the people in the labor force are going to keep their jobs. uh federal uh employees. Uh now that's not the biggest part of government, but there is a trickle down effect to state and local and even to quasi government uh jobs in the health care and education space.
And uh that that would account for 30% of the labor force. uh just uh wondering, worrying, and probably holding back on purchases uh to and until the outcome is clearer. Crypto fans usually spend their weekends planning vacations or taking a break from the markets. But this Sunday feels different. Anxiety is thick in the air as a major warning spreads across social media.
Tomorrow could be Bitcoin's own Black Monday. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and well-known voice in the crypto world, is ringing the alarm bells. He's urging everyone to watch closely when futures on the S&P 500 open at 6 p.m. Greenwich, which meanantime. This moment could set the stage for something major, not just for stocks, but for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
Timing matters even more when you factor in Asia. As the US markets wake up, Asia will already be deep into its Monday trading day. With Bitcoin barely moving this weekend, traders have little to no clues about where the market is heading next. It's a true standoff, a calm before what could be a very sharp storm.
Hayes describes the situation as a fog of war where everyone knows something is coming, but no one knows exactly what. Memories of past Black Mondays don't exactly inspire comfort. March 16, 2020 stands out as one of the worst days in market history, triggered by the panic around CO 19. Some experts even claim it hit harder than the infamous crash of 1987.
And while some Black Mondays are just painful blips, others have been the start of something much bigger, like the Great Depression in 1929. With the clock ticking toward Monday, the crypto world is holding its breath, hoping history doesn't repeat itself, or at least not too harshly. .
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