저자: TomLee · 외국인
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S&P500은 약 6% 하락 후 바닥 근처이며 이번 주 바닥 형성 가능성 제기. 관세 불확실성 해소 후 시장 반등 기대. 금리인하 기대와 Fed 비둘기파 전망 언급. 비트코인은 3월 종료 후 계절성 반등, 연말까지 상승 가능, 장기 목표 15만 달러 이상 제시. 스테이블코인 제도화 및 달러 우위 언급.
다듬은 글
coin seasonally was just not going to be attractive until after March ends. It coin can do well to the end of the year. Bitcoin Zeaala today and enjoy the new edge. Tom Lee thinks the markets could have the right pieces for a bottom this week. We'll break down his insights, what's driving his outlook, and what it means for investors.
Let's dive in. Tom Lee is a head of research at Fundstrat and chief investment officer of Fund Strat Capital as well as a CNBC contributor. at the time. I think you uh you were talking about some of the people that work in your shop too, some of the technical uh people, and you were of the view that we were at least close to making a bottom.
And off camera, we were talking, I said, maybe um in terms of timing, it was about a month early, but in terms of how far the markets actually went down, you're not off by that much. I think the S&P is down about 6%. Now looks like it's be if it opens where it is right now, it'll be in correction territory again down 10.
But you have the same kind of feeling for for this week that that the some of the some of the underpinnings are in for a real bottom for a tradeable bottom or a real bottom. Uh yeah, I mean both. I mean if obviously it doesn't feel this way because over the weekend futures came under pressure but we know markets are really oversold.
Uh we know that investors have had a lot of de-risking and this week I think into April 2nd investors have three things on their minds. You know, one is they just don't know what the tariffs look like. They don't know if it's going to damage the economy and and I think third many are just a little terrified of of the policies of the White House.
But post Wednesday, I think markets are going to have some visibility that allows us to take some of the selling pressure off. So I yes I think it's possible that instead of us breaking down here and and seeing markets under further pressure, we're actually got the right piece though into this without knowing what's on the other side of it.
That's that is the fundamental question that people are sitting around trying to figure out today and tomorrow. That's right. It's an interminable weight for people because it is still 3 days and they're fearful that we could have three days of down 2%. But I kind of agree with Larry Frink. I I think the US is going to come out of this okay.
I mean, Brexit's an example. You know, Brexit happened and the UK economy uh emerged okay. It didn't have a huge recession and the stock market did okay. So, I for for investors today over the weekend, we had so many thinking the economy is going to completely fall off the rails after Wednesday. Well, they people are starting to say slowing growth and and uh persistent inflation.
So the you put those together and you get the this inflation. Yeah. That that's death for Yeah. I mean there's a lot of distortions of the economy now, right? Because we know people are buying cars and wine ahead of tariffs and that's creating inflation. Hopefully they're not doing it the same, you know, cars in the wine.
Do you think it's do you think it's pushing up our growth um numbers that we're seeing at this point between retail sales in other places or is the is too small to distort things on that great of a level? I I think it's possible economists are only dialing in the negative consequences so far but not the positive because rates are down and gasoline's down and there could be some pull forwarded demand.
So we might end up have with having better growth so less stag and maybe the inflation stuff is more distorting and so it's not as stagflationary. Today in crypto brought exciting developments and surprising setbacks. Donald Trump's sons teamed up with digital mining company HUD 8 to launch American Bitcoin, a venture aiming to become the world's largest pure play Bitcoin miner with a plan to build a robust strategic Bitcoin reserve.
This move signals a renewed interest in mining operations and reflects growing confidence in the crypto market. Meanwhile, the Ethereum based Defi protocol Salar Trading suffered a major blow as hackers drained its entire TVL of $355,000. This alarming incident underscores the ongoing security challenges in decentralized finance.
In another notable update, Binance introduced a streamlined trading feature that allows users to seamlessly switch between centralized and decentralized exchanges, simplifying token purchases and reducing technical hurdles. These stories highlight the dynamic nature of the crypto landscape where innovation and risk often go hand in hand.
Each day, the crypto scene evolves rapidly, blending promise with unexpected twists. Goldman did raise their inflation forecast, but then they're talking about more rate cuts. I know. Which is because of of growth concern. Yes. And I think we'll have a glimpse of where what Fed Chair Powell is thinking because he's speaking Friday after the jobs report.
And I I do think that there remains a more dovish Fed than many expect. I mean, I think that's what was revealed after the March FOMC meeting. and not them saying it's going to put a a necess a reversal of markets here, but I think investors are a little too scared heading into winter. Bitcoin's uh testing recent near-term lows, I guess.
Again, it's been under 80. Uh it's not quite there yet. It definitely is a riskoff trade. And you know, when the NASDAQ goes down, Bitcoin seems to go down. But it also really likes the idea of more Fed rate cuts or or the Fed being more more lenient. So, if we get that on Friday, uh, is this a a decent time to to be stacking?
I think so. You know, you do at 80. Yeah. I think, you know, part of this was Bitcoin seasonally was just not going to be attractive until after March ends. And now we're finally exiting March. And so I think not only is the calendar looking better, but as you're saying, Fed and central banks are easing QT's ending.
I think that that with positive Washington sort of tailwinds means I think Bitcoin can do well to the end of the year, right? People love it when I ask you what your your own end target is on Bitcoin because Yeah. people very excited. Yes. And I mean crazy high again. I think it's still 150 or higher as possible.
I know it doesn't feel like it, but once we get through this tariff and uh that agenda around tariffs, markets can look forward to things that could be positive. You don't do you agree with what Larry Fin said just about the idea that the dollar could suffer as a result and it would Yeah. Uh yes. I mean, I'd say I'd say that Washington understands that too.
That's why stable coin really getting the right sort of legislation for stable coin is important because in crypto when it comes to stable coins the dollar is way more dominant there than it is in traditional market. XRP bulls seem to be in denial as recent price trends mirror past crashes that saw declines of 75 to 90%.
The token has lost more than 40% from its multi-year high near $3 and 40 cents reached in January and onchain indicators hint that a significant correction could be coming. Data from Glass Node reveals that XRP's net unrealized profit/loss has entered the denial zone, a stage historically linked to sharp market reversals.
In 2018, similar levels of euphoria preceded a dramatic drop from above $3 to below $0.30 30 and a comparable pattern occurred in 2021 when XRP fell from $1.96 to $0.50. Current charts indicate a bearish fractal with the RSI showing a lower high, a sign of weakening momentum. Traders now watch as XRP trades sideways between $1.80 and $3.40 after a mature rally.
If the trend continues, the price could target the 50week EMA around $158 before possibly plunging further toward the 200E EMA near $087. Such a move would represent a decline of roughly 60%, casting doubt on the current bullish sentiment and urging caution among XRP supporters. Investors should remain vigilant as market dynamics evolve, keeping close watch on key support levels and sentiment shifts.
California has taken a bold step in protecting digital asset rights with its groundbreaking digital assets bill AB 1052. The legislation, which renames the Money Transmission Act to digital assets, legally recognizes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as valid payment methods in private transactions.
Nearly 40 million residents can now enjoy the freedom to use and store their digital assets securely through self- custody, whether on hardware wallets or self-hosted solutions. The bill also bars public officials from promoting crypto in ways that create conflicts of interest, enhancing trust in government and emerging financial technologie.
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