저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미국 소비자 신용잔액이 3월 473억, 4월 381억달러 증가하는 등 부채 확대가 두드러지며, 저축률 5% 미만과 소비심리 2008년 수준이 겹쳐 지속 불가능하다고 봄. 실질GDP 추정치는 0% 근처로 침체 우려. 대형 금융사 기준 소비 여력은 3~9개월 남았다는 경고. 소매(타깃·월마트) 재고 증가와 가격 결정력 약화, 필수소비재·패스트푸드 마진 압박을 지적. 사이버보안 수요 확대 가능성은 언급하나 밸류에이션은 부담이라 평가.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here welcome back oh my gosh we've got a lot to talk about because we just got some nasty numbers that came out so breaking news on these nasty numbers we're also going to be talking about a lot of these ticker symbols towards the latter part of the video we also have a sponsored message by aura.com meet Kevin but more on them in just a moment first oh my gosh look at this chart folks Consumer Credit holy moly first of all we're up an annualized 10.1 percent since the last month that is a lot of debt growth to be growing debt at 10 a year at an annualized rate but look at this on the far right there you see that highlighting there at the tippy top right over there look at that folks we had 47.3 billion in increased debt in March followed by now 38.1 in April I drew sort of a yellow line there to try to give us an average of the past maybe 10 years although this chart goes all the way back to the 90s early 90s and boy oh boy these are some of the largest drawdowns of credit that we are seeing we've also seen revolving credit look at this jump is 17.8 a billion dollars after 25 the month before that and I wrote some numbers on here look at this folks 537 million credit cards opened in the first quarter if you just assume people who have social security numbers and who can qualify and who are of age in the United States that works out to two to three credit cards open in the first quarter per person and things just started getting bad in the second quarter like April and May so it's no surprise that you're starting to see banking CEOs u-turn on their argument that oh yeah you know the consumers were fine they've got plenty of savings but don't worry we'll talk about what the banks are saying we'll talk about what is going on with the Atlanta real GDP we'll talk about margin all in just a moment but this Consumer Debt information is scary and I mentioned this not because we're trying to pass Fudd on but it's weird and it's not sustainable why is it that we have consumer sentiment level levels of 2008 levels consumer savings rates under five percent at 2008 levels yet all of a sudden people are spending this much money on debt why are they drawing down debt do they think that debt is about to get Frozen like what we saw in 2008 that will have a credit crunch or are they trying to sustain a previous lifestyle that they had during the stemi days or do they need to because inflation is outpacing what their income is actually growing at and therefore they have no choice but to go into debt and this is dangerous debt and credit cards folks let's get in a message from our sponsor and then let's talk about some other updates and also what's on the board behind me are these tickers y'all know what the fastest growing crime affecting millions of people in America is well the answer is definitely hands down identity theft and there's a new victim literally every 14 seconds so we just have another one and that's why I'm excited to partner 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protect your family and yourself from identity theft at aura.com meet Kevin Below in the description as well and if you sign up right now at aura.com meet Kevin you'll also also get a two-week free trial for their entire Suite of services at Aurora today welcome back take a look at this chart folks it's ridiculous this chart right here U.S earners High earners who report living paycheck to paycheck what is this folks people this is all people making over six figures and what do you have 63 percent of Millennials making over six figures living paycheck to paycheck are you freaking kidding me have you folks not listened to any of our videos on trying to save and get a get out of debt and building assets this is a problem now I know this isn't you I know it's not you it's the other folks so everyone else who's not watching the channel this is a problem but not only is this a problem it's also a problem because spending will be going down consumer sentiment is at 2008 level savings is at 2008 levels we're seeing debt Skyrocket we're seeing inventory pile up at stores targets telling us basically looking forward hey people just aren't spending they're not responding to our price Cuts anymore we're going to talk about takers in just a moment because it's going to be really interesting we're going to talk about my opinions on some of these but it's no surprise that when I pull up the fed's real GDP estimate which is right here look at this folks this line here is the zero percent line and we are sitting next to zero percent in Real GDP this is the Atlanta estimate this is not the actual estimate because obviously we had a negative quarter that was not revised upwards still a negative quarter for the first quarter we're knocking on the door of a negative quarter in the second quarter which could mean we're in a recession now if we're in a recession now and you've got Banks saying hey consumers right now are pulling as much credit as they can to continue spending then maybe we'll be in a recession throughout 2023.
why do I say that well I say that because Morgan Stanley tells us consumers have three months left of spending that's not uh I mean that sounds pretty dire that's actually a big problem Jamie dimon says people have between six to nine months of spending left and Deutsche Bank says we have until the end of 2023 worth of savings left now it's possible that Deutsche Bank is saying this because if you jump over to this particular chart here you do see that higher income groups do have excess savings left and so maybe this group over here will stop spending early this group will stop spending by the end of uh 2023 this group will stop spending or by the end of 2022.
this group will stop spending by the end of or let's say the beginning so we'll put B 23 right and 22 over here this is sort of your now end of spending and then these guys stop spending at the end of 2023. maybe that's why you're getting this this really Diversified range of what banks think in terms of when consumers are going to run out of money but let's just put it this way it's not sustainable for consumers to take on so much debt while saving so little let's put it up again right here look at the this folks this is not sustainable do not be one of these consumers do not be the consumer that is going into debt really really bad idea you want to make sure you get out of debt now if there's something if you want to help kind of make sure that you can build your wealth during these times when real wealth is built and you're prepared to get into real estate investing or you're trying to figure out how to build your income and get on the path to wealth make sure you check out the programs link down below we've got the path to wealth program where even today we're filming more scenarios responding to your examples of what you're doing in your life and my opinions in terms of hey maybe this would be the next step to getting on that path to wealth whether it's the real estate or whatever folks take a look at all of those programs linked down below because Now's the Time to build your wealth not not when we're in a bull market then anybody can do it if you can build your wealth during these times that's what matters most because now you want to make money but why do we have all these tickers up here folks what do we got written here well first thing Proctor and game gamble what do I want to say about Procter and Gamble so Procter and Gamble in their last earnings call told us oh don't worry everything's fine our consumers are still preferring premium Brands what are premium brands well they're things like my use that 50 off coupon code it's an amazing coupon code we got right now 50 off it's the biggest coupon code we've ever had linked down below but anyway they mentioned that folks are still spending money on Gillette products or Brawn toothbrushes basically the more expensive premium version of things because they're used to the stimi days maybe because they're used to the stimi days they're still spending money on these things but eventually that's going to go away and these high margin items are going to get killed people have right now escaped to Consumer Staples because they think this is the place to be safe during periods of inflation but no I believe that their margins will get squeezed as people start moving towards lower uh lower sort of uh brand value products and start going down in price to survive this is actually where what does really well in this kind of time dollar stores and there's a reason that when we look at retail foot traffic and Mobility data the only category that's positive well next to Fashion which is barely positive like point two percent positive are dollar stores like mega mega mega discount stores which some of them are now by the way because there's so much inflation being called Five Below which I think is kind of funny that dollar stores are turning into five belows but anyway target folks Target Walmart we don't even need to talk about These Guys these guys have lost the plot they've lost pricing power Target especially has lost their pricing power they've got way too much inventory they've got a terrible system in terms of inventory management I mean they're just getting creamed here and they're telling us yeah we're getting creamed so we already know this about Target we know Walmart is experiencing similar rises in inventory remember what Kathy Wood said Kathy Wood says look 50 of Walmart is the grocery store aisle and if they had a 32 increase in inventory you're not seeing that inventory build up in groceries you're seeing that build up in stuff people ain't buying that stuff that's bad keep this in mind this is a stat from The Economist The Economist tells us that 25 of all groceries in the United States are bought at Walmart yeah crazy but Walmart's nowhere near as cost effective as companies like Aldi or Trader Joe's because you've got super centers too much Choice it's a disaster anyway companies that I personally really think are at risk going forward into quarters I know Lulu did well okay Lulu did well it's still kind of one of the newer ones of these in the last quarter I don't think it's going to last but they are still a newer ones sort of on the scene here and they're doing really well as the Canadian company they are they're kicking butt I'm going to Canada soon so I'll see you there I got my Canada shirt right here so I'm ready to go but anyway all these these sort of uh athleisure companies the Nike the dicks The Outdoor sporting goods the Lulu whatever I think we've got risks here because I think people bought their clothing for reopen and now they've got to kind of do an inventory Check and Go holy crap I got a lot of clothing I'm gonna I'm gonna step back on the new clothing here because I gotta be able to buy some food now somebody in the course member live stream this morning asked a really good question I don't know the answer to this but I want to hear I want to survey all of you on their behalf so in the course member live stream we were talking about cyber security and we were doing we did like a 30 minute fundamental analysis on crowdstrike which is really just a part one you can't do a full 30 minute analysis on on one stock and think that's it that's all they know my full analysis takes hours right but we learn these things or I teach these things right and so one of the things they asked is Hey Kevin if if people spend uh less money at in places like these discretionaries over here is it possible that a place they might go is actually fast food in other words would it potentially make sense to invest in companies like Coca-Cola or McDonald's or whatever regarding Coke it's worth noting that their ingredients costs have shot up so much and they just don't have the pricing power based on their last earnings call to continue raising prices catch up said the same thing well Heinz Heinz who makes ketchup Heinz said the same thing Kraft Heinz so there's this risk factor about well I don't know Ken Heinz and Coke keep delivering when costs are going up but and I don't know the answer to this but I do think it's interesting and I want to hear it from you do you think that companies like McDonald's or maybe even like a more fast casual restaurant a step down from something like maybe cheesecake or Olive Garden can something like Red Robin do well because now you're able to get a cheaper sit-down meal or just even just a pickup to go meal at McDonald's right fast food fast casual I want to know what you think in the comments down below personally I'm not a big fan of the food industry so I stay away from food I've worked in the food industry I think it's the most terrible industry to be in I would never recommend somebody be in it it's the lowest margin it's the highest risk in liability it's a disaster other companies I want to talk about you know a firm tells us that hey we're we're good you know during recessions we can grow the most because well people will borrow more and I think this is exactly why Apple just released their pay and for in terms of being able to do buy now pay later now paying four is really just pay over six to eight weeks which is really just like having a credit card and paying it off in 30 to 45 days when the statement comes in so I don't really think this is innovative like what a firm does with the Partnerships where you can buy now pay later for up to six months to 36 months out right very very different this is an actual Merchant partnership this is just just pay us back in four payments or whatever very very different here you know this is what PayPal does is what they all do it's a big no big deal but uh it's really the the risk factor you have here especially at a firm is that they keep 50 of their debt so if you keep 50 of your debt on your books and all of a sudden your default rates are going up which they are default rates were under 1.5 percent according to the Wall Street Journal last year now they're sitting at about 3.4 percent in terms of well I should shouldn't say default rate I should say 30 day late because that's what it is that is a form of a default though if you're 30 days late you've somewhat defaulted right but this is a more than doubling of of the rate of lates here and once you get to 30 days late the odds of you collecting this low especially since it's not like they're going to come to your house and repossess your Peloton they they're it's not like they have a car you have car debt where they can repossess this thing they can't you're screwed uh that is a firm screw they take the loss on the debt so you're going to see a lot more of an allowance for doubtful accounts which means they write those accounts off or at least these expenses which is going to affect profitability and won't surprise me if they end up not going profitable yet where you really want to be here is when you're coming out of a crash where they've got so much written off for doubtful accounts and you're coming out of the crash well I think you're kind of going into it now or you're already in this prolonged recession right games is a question mark for me games I wonder like hey can I mean personally in my opinion games are the best value per dollar that you spend you go to a movie theater and you spend you know 30 bucks on on tickets for for you and and your girlfriend and I think a popcorn or whatever that's 30 bucks for an hour and a half of entertainment you could each spend 30 bucks on a video game like Age of Empires or whatever now you spent 60 bucks so what does that get you three hours of entertainment no I mean it could get you hundreds of hours of entertainment right so I wonder if consumers will make that analysis and realize wow we can actually save a lot of money not going to Disney World not going to the movie theaters not going to the mall not buying this athleisure kind of crap anymore and just play video games at home and keep it relaxed similar uh but uh but but sort of well actually not similar it's similar to these guys over here that discretionary spend Etsy what did they tell us in their last earnings call no pricing power their Merchants don't have pricing power to raise prices I don't know if we did that on a live stream actually we know we did this in the course member live stream we're reading through their earnings reports uh and their earnings calls and we're like oh yep nope uh anyway remember 50 off coupon code linked down below okay shift technology they're they're knocking on the door of BK okay we did a probably a 20 to 30 minute analysis on shift right here the cash flow that they have is terrible right now big negative cash flows you don't have but maybe one to two quarters of cash left they're gonna have to get on get a lot of high interest rate debt or they're going to have to issue some new stock to survive in my opinion what else do people cut well again we talked about movies potentially getting cut subscriptions I mean that's a no-brainer I mean all of this started with like the Peloton and Netflix disaster right so that's really no surprise Netflix was like the canary and the coal mine beginning of this year that oh crap this is going to be a tough year Disney plus still did well though they beat expectations but one place that I thought was very interesting is is it possible that during difficult times we're going to end up seeing more cyber crime and if we see more cyber crime is it possible that we're going to see more spend on cyber security now I hate to say it the price to earnings ratios of companies like crowdstrike are freaking ridiculous I mean you're talking about over 100 p e ratios Peg ratios of three to four but it's a SAS business SAS business compared to like a Tesla where you sell the car and it's not yet a SAS business via FSD SAS business says man you with 120 retention rate like what you have over at crowdstrike I don't know it's a head scratcher you know these guys have come down a lot in their pricing and it makes you wonder can businesses spending on Cyber remain resilient because look at Gemini for example Gemini is getting sued for like 20 to 30 million dollars because they lost a many millions of dollars in actually I think it was about 30 million dollars they lost about 30 million dollars in a hack in people's retirement accounts in Bitcoin and ethereum and now they're getting sued for that money which makes sense but hey you know could it have been prevented with some better cyber security you know software whether that's uh like cloudflare's uh DNS service uh or uh or what is it uh CD CDN service that's what they do the CDN service or uh crowd I'm not really good at cyber security stuff I'm still learning this but uh cyber security over on crowdstrike some incredible Suites of packages that you have over here for detecting malware or whatever else with their Falcon products there's some neat things here so I recently have been starting to scratch my head about the Cyber industry because everything is everything's kind of painful in a recession I mean there's no doubt about that but I'll tell you there's nothing more painful than seeing the real GDP and numbers next to negative seeing a margin debt actually margin debt in stocks is declining a little bit we're about 744 million right now a billion right now which is is way better than like the 940 where we were before we were almost at a trillion that was a disaster but this uh buildup of Consumer Debt it's an issue and these are my thoughts on these companies make sure to check out aura.com matecav and f you got questions leave a comment or send an email over to kevin.com thank you
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