저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 Model 3/Y 주문 추적 데이터상 2022년 2분기 주문이 둔화되고 배송 대기 기간이 늘어 우려가 있다고 진단. 이어 엔페이즈(Enphase)와 PEG 비율·미국 매출 비중·주택 시장 민감도 등을 비교. 엔페이즈는 미국 매출 75%, 인버터 생산 확대 전망 등 긍정적이나, 부동산 침체 시 성장 둔화 및 밸류에이션 압축 위험을 언급. 본인은 두 회사 모두 좋아하며 엔페이즈 하락 시 적극 매수 의향을 밝힘. 투자 권유가 아니라는 면책 문구 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here in this video we've got to talk about plummeting sales over at tesla and then after that what we're going to do is we're going to compare tesla and end phase and you're going to want to see these numbers because we did a deep dive this morning i mean as deep as you can get in about a 20-minute fundamental analysis look into end phase this morning just to get an update in the course member live stream and boy i want to give you some takeaways from this by the way every single day i do a course member live stream we are now doing fundamental analysis on different stocks whether it's shift etsy and video you're getting my raw thoughts and reaction to what we're discovering check that out a link down below there's also a coupon now it's 50 off and the code is future millions and check it out link down below okay first let's talk about tesla let's go ahead and pull up the ipad here and we got to talk about some of these new numbers okay so troy uh shout out to troy here on twitter he does some great data analytics for tesla and take a look at this this was not so great here tesla model 3 y orders reported by his order tracker and what we can see here is something a little concerning the bottom line which is covered by my little picture and picture there you can hide that maybe just for a second see that there 2022 q2 i'll circle that for one right there okay so now if we look at the chart we can see the lowest line here is essentially q2 2022 orders and that's a little bit of a concern because usually by this point we're we're crossing this many days into the quarter we would already have crossed 500 multiple in any other quarter in the past we've crossed 500 orders in the quarter you could see that this is 500 right here and here we go every time we're at about day 57 we've crossed a 500 orders except this quarter the second quarter here in 2022 we have not done so yet you can see q2 2021 really took off i mean this was explosive right here but definitely a plummet in orders here and so the question now is when uh or or what's happening here why are we seeing this and so there's some speculation potentially that this could be the reason for it here's your average wait time for tesla model 3 deliveries and you could see the last quarter over here has the highest wait times instead of waiting three months which was roughly the average of the end of last year we're waiting a couple months for the beginning of last year you are now waiting three uh sorry you're now waiting almost six over six months to get yourself a tesla model y that's pretty incredible now uh in addition to this we're also seeing service take a little bit longer here's a chart uh that uh troy went ahead and threw up for us which is really informative and it shows that in q1 2022 we actually had about 10.7 of those who brought their vehicles in for service have to spend more than a day in service to get their vehicle serviced now i personally just had my mcu replaced and my car was in service for almost a week because they had to order the part i asked them if it was coming from shanghai because then i knew it would probably taken like two to three weeks and i'm like no no don't worry it's it's coming from the us of a is what they said service was great by the way but elon's already mentioned on twitter that hey we've got to get the service in north america faster and so this is a priority for elon musk he's addressed exactly this but i will say that decline over here in orders something that we're kind of looking at like oh no all right like there's a little bit of an issue all right folks now we got to talk about end phase versus tesla okay this is what we talked about on that course member live remember if you want to be part of those you get lifetime access to the programs use the coupon code down below whether it's building your wealth making youtube videos getting the stocks of psychology and money group where you could see how i'm allocating my portfolio and once it comes time to diversifying more since i'm a bit concentrated right now where i'm going get those alerts linked down below make sure to use that coupon code future millions but first right here folks medkevin.com tasty if you have not signed up yet deposit two thousand dollars at tasty and they will give you two hundred dollars literally for free try their broker job it's really incredible especially for options absolutely amazing as long as you leave your money in their platform for two months they will give you 200 for free this is not up to 200 it's 200 for free okay so we got tesla closing price today of 714 in 2022 we're expecting 60 growth we'll see if we can actually hit that number because of shanghai we might be closer to 50 percent but let's say we're about 60 percent with an eps at the end of the year of about 12 we're at about a p e ratio for 2022 of 59.5 right now it's actually not that terrible given the growth rate right you always want to evaluate a p e ratio relative to a growth rate and the reason the peg ratio is so so freaking important is because people like to look at a company like walmart and they'll say something like well walmart's p e ratio is like 19.8 right now right but their growth is like four percent so when you divide 19.8 by four you almost get a peg ratio of five you're paying a lot of freaking money for that growth over at walmart although everybody you probably asked that doesn't know much about finance is like well yeah tesla's over valued at walmart oh this is consumer staple it's probably a good deal meanwhile the thing had disastrous earnings they're cutting prices like crazy their inventories explode this is not about walmart okay it's not about walmart this is about kevin.com tasty get 200 okay 200 for free come on folks it's not even up to it's 200 for free so uh and then in the future so if we divide this we get a peg of about one in the future we're expecting about 50 growth in the future right compounded annual we know we've got a household income here of about 140 000 this is what we want we want a strong household income so that when we start coming out of a recession or if we even continue into a recession then we come out of it we we stay strong through this sort of recessionary dynamic i also believe what we really want is a very home-based company one that's got a lot of sales in the united states because i hate to say but uh i think the emerging markets are going to suffer a lot more than the united states and i think europe and china are going to suffer a lot more than the united states this is going to be one of those situations where when the united states sneezes and have a has a soft-ish landing the rest of the world ends up getting coveted okay that's a little bit of an evolution of the quote but whatever i think it's appropriate so uh this is tesla for you problem with tesla okay and this is a little minus factor here is according to their last annual report 45 of their sales are u.s based that means 55 or international i thought that was a little surprising to me so that was that was quite interesting now let's compare that over here to end phase so over at end phase you've got growth of about 51 this year it's forward growth maybe 30 maybe forty percent maybe fifty percent who knows tbd their eps this year expected to be about three dollars and five cents so you've got a multiple that's up there as well 58.8 very very similar to tesla peg ratio with that 51 growth about 1.15 very similar to tesla i wouldn't really compare one to 1.15 it's basically the same thing very very good peg ratio very good here and uh here in the solar industry you tend to have households that have a household income of about 115 dollars per year this is where you want to be this is very very good now one of the things that is nice about enfase is 75 of their revenue comes from the united states so when it comes to us and phase wins on that and one of the beautiful things about enphase is while tesla's prioritizing batteries for their cars and that's so that's recognized in their car revenue right now end phase is really far behind on their batteries and battery revenue because their battery lead times right now are 14 to 16 weeks one of the beautiful things about that is when the ships finally come in like literally the ships finally come in with more batteries revenue could explode over at end faces these batteries actually start coming in remember batteries here are going as like home power walls where tesla's prioritizing cars over home power walls so very very interesting way to diversify with battery tech and they're killing it with chips like they are they do not have supply issues at least so they say with their chips they're able to sell their they use asics which there are plenty of them especially since crypto prices have come down plenty of asics on the market which let's let them make their iq eights iq eights are amazing they're a new micro-inverter style of technology that actually allow you to power your home when the grid shuts down most solar systems and i know this sounds weird even while the sun is out most solar systems can't power your home when the grid shuts down you have to have the grid on for the solar system to work it's crazy the iq8 at end phase solves this end phase is really like a higher end kind of solar company which again i also like higher end 115 is for all solar households that's sort of your average household income and face i would venture to say is a little bit more of a premium brand probably a little bit even more than this and i would much prefer enphase over something like a william sonoma right now even though william sonoma also appeals to that higher income demographic a demographic that has more income to get through a recession uh more savings about fifty thousand dollars more of savings per household in the top twenty percent compared to 2019 absolutely amazing a nice good buffer here uh the problem however with end phase and this is a little this is kind of the thing that's been keeping me a little bit skeptical of nface is an face did really really well today first of all because biden said okay no tariffs on solar panel imports on certain manufacturers for two years keep in mind and face does not make solar panels but it's a benefit to end phase because more solar panels come in cheaper solar panels and face can sell more of their inverters which make solar panels work and make them work for your house right so that's really really good but what's been keeping me away what's been key and that's why we had like a six percent bump in the price on end face today but what's been keeping me away is that uh most people in my opinion view solar as an investment and we know from lowe's and home depot that investments tend to go down on your homes during a recession and so if we do end up having a recession and we see home values fall or whether or not we have a recession if we see home values fall i do worry that there could be multiple missed quarters of growth at end phase and if we really miss this growth number because we have two two and a half years of a depressed real estate market and maybe the forward growth is only about 20 percent and we're going to have big problems with valuation we're going to see that peg ratio is a lot higher and i think the valuation will compress which won't be great for the stock however i will say despite the potential real estate market which that could take you know six months to a year to really take hold they expect to go from 2.8 million inverters manufactured per quarter which is crazy per quarter all the way to 6 million that's a double by q1 of 2023 that's insane inverter growth that's really really really good that's that's amazing i mean i'm very very excited about end phase for this i do think there'll be opportunities but boy oh boy it's not a surprise that while oil prices are so high end face is absolutely kicking butt right now i think we've got headwinds because of that real estate issue but boy numbers wise really i've always loved this company and still love it uh now with with tesla one of the things that's interesting here is even though they have things like you know fsd robots both of the companies are ramping well right i know tesla's got batteries as well but we're recognizing that in car revenue where over here we're really doing a lot of inverters anyway tesla's got that higher household income and what's interesting is if household incomes or household net worths go down because home prices go down does that actually stop people from buying teslas are tesla's bought as a justified investment or they bought for more entertainment purposes because people want to spend money on butter right guns versus butter butter kind of more enjoyment things so a little bit of different companies here but i have to say if you're looking for two great growth companies that appeal to higher income households and get substantial revenues from the united states which i think is really where you want to be in this kind of environment i don't think you can go wrong hashtag not financial advice with either tesla end phase or a combination of both of those obviously i can't give you financial advice but i'll tell you me personally my opinion i love both of these companies and if i were just less concerned over here or we had more of the market start pricing in some real estate pain into end phase maybe if oil prices come down home prices come down we start seeing pain here you better believe i'm loading up on end phase so i'm excited i'm just not sure how much that household impact in desire to spend money on solar it's really going to hit the company but then again we get plenty of problems at tesla as well folks don't even get me started on that one including with twitter 'll link it down below make sure to get your future millions coupon code and your free 200 with medkevin.comtasty
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