저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
지난주 증시 호조와 S&P 선물 신고점, 골든크로스 기대를 언급. 파월 후임 지명을 통한 금리 인하 기대와 SLR 완화로 국채 수요 증가 가능성 제기. 1분기 GDP -0.5% 및 수입 증가 영향, 2분기 소비 둔화 우려와 소매·금 약세 언급. 임금 둔화와 관세발 인플레이션 속 연준의 금리 인하 어려움 진단. 개별 종목으로 서클(180 부근, 추가 하락 가능성), 팔란티어(120선 관찰), AMD(160까지 가능), 인텔·테슬라·구글·엔비디아(180~190 기대), SOXL(28 돌파 필요), 마이크론 익절(137) 등 가격 구간 중심 언급.
다듬은 글
The stock market was very good last week. SMP futures also surpassed their all-time high . A golden cross is also about to be made. This allows us to expect further increases in the future . First of all, subscribing, liking, and leaving thank-you comments are a great source of motivation for making videos .
I would like to ask you one by one . There is something I always mention. I'm telling you not to just look at the stocks you own, not just the rising stocks, and not just the stocks that are drawing attention or thematic stocks. You need to proceed while examining the overall situation . This is because there is a disconnect between the economy within the stock market and the real economy, so the real economy's performance may later be reflected in the stock market, potentially leading to a decline .
There was talk that Trump would appoint Powell's successor between September and October . This is the interesting part. It's an attempt to loosen up Powell's grip. Because it is highly likely that the stock market will pay more attention to the words of the person who will become the chairman in the future .
When the next nominee comes out, that nominee's vibe will become stronger . It appears to be an intention to bring distant interest rates or expectations closer by appointing someone who supports interest rate cuts as the Fed chairman . Then, government bond yields will be able to fall . However, government bond yields could fall further.
The Fed said it would ease the conditions for the SLRR . U.S. banks have cash that they absolutely must keep on hand for companies . But the Fed is saying that it will reduce the cash banks are required to hold, so they should use that to buy something. There are interpretations that suggest that something is telling us to buy government bonds.
Recently, government bond yields have risen as China and Japan sold U.S. bonds, and other countries also sold U.S. Treasury bonds . If U.S. banks roughly purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, demand will increase, and interest rates may fall. U.S. banks conduct stress tests. It is a test to evaluate whether U.S.
banks have sufficient capital and whether they can withstand crisis situations, such as economic recessions, with that capital. There is talk these days that an economic recession is coming due to inflation . They also say it is politically unstable. Under these circumstances, the fact that banks are lowering the cash they are required to hold suggests there must have been some condition .
It seems highly likely that the condition is to live in the soup . There is talk that government bond yields will fall due to the circumstances . The finalized GDP figures for the first quarter came out at -0.5% and 5%. The reason GDP fell is because imports increased significantly . If imports increase, gross domestic product decreases.
Since production has been carried out in other countries, domestic production decreases, causing the country's GDP to fall. There seems to be some expectation that GDP will improve slightly in the second quarter, as imports were likely increased in advance due to tariffs . However, the part that could become a problem in the future is consumption.
If consumption decreases, supply will also decrease. Retail sales are sluggish, and consequently, retail stocks are not performing well. Gold is also falling. If consumption is poor, gold may also fall because people say they won't buy it . Oil prices are also falling. The part that is being talked about as a concern for the second quarter.
There are already many imported goods, so we have to wait until they are consumed, but the point is that consumption will decrease even further . So, they say that the consumption of the imported goods will be delayed. Then, the U.S. will have no choice but to reduce production again . Another factor expected to worsen consumption is employment and wages.
People say employment is good, but wage growth is actually declining. Have prices gone down when you go out to eat or grocery shopping? No. These days, some companies are letting go of high-wage earners first and hiring lower-wage employees . So I heard that these days there are people who don't want to get promoted.
If there are concerns like this, the Fed needs to cut interest rates, but they say they will wait and see . There are two reasons for this . The first is that Trump is lowering oil prices to manipulate inflation indicators . Trump has asked Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices and is also trying to increase crude oil production in the United States .
And they also tried to end the war between Ukraine and Russia quickly. I failed, though . The war between Iran and Israel ended quickly and brought down rising oil prices. If energy prices fall, it can offset rising inflation to some extent . In terms of indicators. However, even if energy prices fall, tariff policies become a greater factor in raising inflation in the real economy, and the public is directly hit .
Therefore, from Powell's perspective, who is concerned about rising inflation due to tariff policies, he may not be convinced based solely on indicators derived from energy prices . The second is the main job. When interest rates are high, the interest payments are high, which reduces the supply of housing and slows down the rise in housing prices.
However, conversely, lowering interest rates could lead to an increase in job prices, which could fuel the rise in housing costs . Housing prices and rent in the U.S. are still incredibly expensive, you know. In the CPI, the proportion of primary workers is high at around 34%. From Powell's perspective, if interest rates are cut, the inflation caused by tariff policies and the inflation resulting from rising housing costs could combine, so the Fed could end up bearing the brunt of the burden if it simply raises interest rates .
And since employment and the economy are said to be good, it is even more difficult to lower rates . There is something I have been telling you since I first started YouTube . There isn't much the government or the Fed can do to curb inflation . I have mentioned before that the only keys are for the government to adjust energy prices and for the Fed to raise interest rates.
That is exactly the situation right now. Among the stocks I'm interested in these days is Circle. It went up to around 300 and has now dropped to around 180 . Because the rise was so significant, those new to stocks might think of it as a Tamger stock. This type of movement is called a penny stock. So, I told you that until this company establishes itself, there are many stocks that won't be able to recover if they become penny stocks.
You really need to be careful. In the last video, I mentioned that you need to go past 220 to see 280. There was a rebound opportunity at the 200 level, but it has collapsed . Because now, it could drop to around 150 or 140 . If you are considering access, you can choose a spot near the location I mentioned.
You must be aware that this is a risky stock before purchasing it. I'll take a look at Jisoo first. It's an XP Mini gift. We kept saying that we just needed to stay above 5,800 . We came near 5,800 once and have been staying at the top ever since, with the Golden Cross just around the corner. Now we just need to look at around 6,100 .
It’s not like there will be a problem if it drops below 6,100. This will be an opportunity to establish a benchmark for whether the upward trend continues . Do you remember a few days ago? When the US attacked Iran and people were making a fuss saying that Bitcoin had dropped below 100,000 . Don't worry about the membership .
I told Shinman not to worry about it because it is no big deal. If you understand these standards, you will be able to maintain your composure no matter what bad news you face . And I had a standard that it needed to rise above 6,000, and it went up above 6,000 that very day, so I was relieved . Until the standard is broken like this, you just endure and wait, no matter what bad news comes your way.
Because that position is 6,100 in the short term. Please use this as a benchmark, and if it drops, I will report on the situation in the next video. I will hope it won't break . You must watch GIS while trading stocks. You will develop a broader perspective on stocks. Palantir. I heard that Palantir went up after liquidating its position due to a large number of short sellers .
The story is that it surged due to short covering. If it goes down this time, people will say it fell because of short-selling forces . You know I'm not interested in things like this, right ? If you try to find every reason for your stock investments every time this happens, it gives you a headache.
Let me share the story I had at the membership. When the index surpasses its all-time high, there is a tendency for investors to flock to big tech blue-chip stocks . The power of a few blue-chip big tech stocks is significant in moving the index. When approaching an all-time high, investors are unable to buy due to the psychological perception that prices have risen too much; however, once the all-time high effect is broken, expectations for further gains kick in, causing volume to shift toward blue-chip stocks that drive the index's rise .
They say the stock market is all about psychology . This is the section where the psychological aspect comes into play . So, some stocks start to fall, and as a result, a differentiated market trend emerges. In times like these, there will likely be talk at brokerage firms and stock exchanges about a differentiated market.
And since it was called Magasei, it was weak, but you can see that Magasei is gradually rising . In the market, there is a rotation of volume . That does n't mean Palantir has entered a bear market, though. Because unless something special happens, it will be able to move sideways . Please do not worry about the decline; focus on establishing a standard first, and then look at the 120 mark .
AMD semiconductors are good these days . It goes up as if something has come in . The fact that something has come in means there is buying activity during those periods. You can consider this kind of rise as definitely a time-bound buy . Buying by general investors alone cannot create a sustained upward rally .
It is also something that has been acknowledged by well-known U.S. brokerage firms, TV personalities, and famous experts . If it continues to rise like this, it could go up to around 160 . You can view the section below as 135, 130. For now, please refer to the supply and demand levels . Intel has nowhere left to go down from here.
It is not that it has gone down just because it dropped to $20 . You just have to go up. In that case, trading volume needs to come in. If the current market conditions are maintained, buying interest may flow into low-priced stocks, so you can just buy and wait. It is the same as Tala Duck . Since it is rising, they can package it as if there is something amazing about it.
There are cases where low-priced volume comes in simply because the stock market is good, without any long-term investment in such stocks. When it rises like this, there are times when you end up looking up what news came out. There are cases where news comes out to boost stock prices, but you don't need to pay too much attention to the news.
For penny stocks, you just need to wait for the time when they rise. While short-term trading or timing is possible, you should be cautious when discussing long-term investment in stocks like this. I took profits at 137 on the Micron Technology membership . I tell you that stock prices have a flow and move within a box .
So I found a box and set a sell position. 111 will be an important turning point. If it does not fall, you can expect further gains . Marvel is the green line inflection point. You can consider it the waist area . Please keep in mind that if you stay above level 80, it opens up to level 90 . 5clo has not collapsed on the chart yet.
It is a section where you have to hold out until 53. If it rises above 58 and stays there within a few days, the upward trend will be maintained. You can refer to this . It has already been purchased in the SMR membership . We are managing it with a target stock price set. There are also people who have taken profits.
It is a section where you have to hold out until 34. If you stay at the top, the trend is maintained. But energy is classified as a magazine. You should keep in mind that it requires positive news and needs to be linked to a theme stock . Company analysis is not necessary. This is a stock that is rebounding after falling as low as it could go.
I mentioned that the 10-year yield was also moving within a box, and since it was at the upper end of the box, it was a situation where a pullback was possible. And I also told you about annual stocks and bank stocks earlier . Given the circumstances, it is a position where an upward movement is possible.
There is a principle behind this as well . For those in the membership looking to buy TLT, I told them that buying at 86R guarantees a profit without looking at anything else, and everyone is currently in the profit zone. I have been digging for 20 years . There are principles to stocks. Stocks become easy if you understand the principles.
I talked about Nvidia's sideways movement in previous videos. It has been trading sideways for a little over two weeks. Finally, it crossed over . Because it looks like it could go up to 180 or 190 . I look forward to it . I mentioned in the last video that this was my last Tesla purchase . 3009. Since the 320, 315, and 300 levels are all the same right now, you can use these zones to proceed with your final purchase.
Those of you who have been watching my videos consistently must have already bought even below 240, right? Given the current situation, Tesla can easily shift to a downtrend if it falls, so you must hold the stock price I mentioned to be able to buy . Since it is a position that needs to be defended, it can be interpreted as a short-term bottom .
I look forward to a rise. I mentioned in the last Google video that the 165 buy option is valid. The purchase has been processed. Currently, it is the top of the 180-box . Stock prices move in a box, and within that box, the rise and fall are sideways. For Google, please refer to the bottom of the box between 165 and 161, and the top of the box between 178 and 180.
Good job to those who bought. Congratulations. SOXL, those of you who have watched my videos will likely have bought heavily in this section . Chasing purchases also took place. The trend for SOXL hasn't been established yet. You need to go up to 28 and stay there for further gains to be possible. Those who are new to stocks might find it difficult to understand the concept of staying put.
I tell you that stocks are easy, but the process of trying to make them easy is difficult. Instead of constantly monitoring the stock prices of every single stock, if you check them occasionally, there are some that particularly stand out. Once those stock prices start to catch your eye, you will be able to see the effects of looking at a chart without actually looking at it .
Because the members say that there really are stocks that have caught their eye . If you pay close attention, you will also be able to achieve multiples from the low point . Stocks are easy. The process is difficult to make it easy, but stocks are actually very easy. I will continue to share my perspectives on stocks through videos .
Please subscribe, like, and leave a thank you comment . I will see you in the next video . thank you
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