저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
증시 급락 후 반등을 설명하며 반등은 예정된 자리였다고 주장. 테슬라·Q 등 소형주는 실적과 무관하게 '때'가 안 맞아 하락 중이라 보며 적정 타이밍을 강조. 엔캐리 트레이드 우려는 과장이었다고 본인 과거 발언을 정당화. 미 장기금리 하락은 경기 불안 신호로 해석하며 10년물 4.3~4.5 반등을 기대. 실업수당 연속청구 증가를 경기침체 신호로 경계. 지수 50일선·200일선 데드크로스 등 기술적 분석을 제시하고, 엔비디아 116~135 박스권, 테슬라 270/260/240 분할매수 구간, 팔란티어 80 지지, NXPI 180 하회 위험 등을 언급. 과거 대비 하락 설명은 예측에서 제외.
다듬은 글
The stock market has fallen significantly. First of all, comments saying you subscribe, like, and thank me are a great source of strength for me in making videos. Fortunately, it closed with a rebound on Friday. I will move on, advising you not to attach too much significance to this. Just because a rise was large or fast does n't mean a "show cover" is happening; there are specific patterns that can be interpreted that way.
However, general investors tend to say that if the market rises because there are many shorts, it rose because there were many shorts, and if it falls because there are many shorts, it fell because there were many shorts. I am telling you that, in reality, general investors cannot know. Please do not attach too much meaning to it; simply view Friday as a rebound buying spree.
It was a position where a rebound was bound to occur. Membership already knew in advance that a rebound would come soon. Even if the conversation between Trump and Zelan Kee did not go well, it was a position where a rebound could generally be expected. After all, sentiment is crucial in the stock market.
Looking at the chart, since it is at the bottom of the box, it can be seen as a position where a rebound was bound to happen. Tesla fell significantly, and VIA also declined after its earnings report. I mentioned that this is a time when small-cap stocks cannot rise. Please do not try to find the reason for the lack of rise in earnings; I am simply telling you that it is not the right time.
If it were a time for small-cap stocks to rise, they would rise even if earnings were poor. Q is falling not because of earnings, but because the right time has passed. When we talk about the "right time" for small-cap stocks, they sometimes rise even if earnings are poor because the market is interpreted in a positive light.
You should view the current decline as it is not the right time, and earnings are poor. Let me share a stock principle here: small-cap stocks without earnings tend to rise when the right timing is right. Eventually, a period comes when they rise solely based on earnings. That stock has a high probability of significant future revenue growth.
I feel I need to discuss several things today. The timetable has now arrived where we must pay attention to the very issues I previously told you not to worry about. I have mentioned that you are worrying more than necessary and focusing on things at times when you don't need to, so I intend to talk about various topics.
Last year, there were people creating an atmosphere of fear regarding Yen carry trades. The argument was that if the US or Japan lowered interest rates, Yen carry trades would flow out. It seems videos were produced based on numbers from the news, even though the actual amount of carry trades couldn't even be estimated.
At that time, there was no need to worry, but as talk emerged from various sources, I hope some subscribers felt a sense of fear as well. I assume you were concerned. I conveyed this in a video, telling you not to worry. Although Japan actually raised interest rates, the talk about NK funds seemed to be quiet.
However, it is now a timeline that is becoming concerning. U.S. long-term bonds are falling significantly. This implies that interest is shifting toward bonds; if bond prices rise and yields fall, it signals that people are flocking to government bonds, which are considered safe assets. Conversely, if bond prices fall and yields rise, it can be seen as a signal that fewer people are looking to buy government bonds, which are considered safe assets.
In the stock market, it can also be interpreted that investors are withdrawing because their confidence in the economy is declining. When confidence in the economy drops, institutions will exit the stock market regardless of whether Japan raises or lowers rates, or whether the U.S. lowers rates. Do U.S.
institutions leave? Investors from around the world leave, and that darn carry trade fund also prepares to leave. It is not that fear of carry trade funds arises because Japan raises rates when the U.S. cuts them; rather, one must analyze the economic situation and understand why rates are being raised or lowered.
If the U.S. economy and the stock market are strong, then the Yen carry trade... The point is that there is no reason for capital to flow out. However, as indicators worsen, it is evident that confidence regarding caution is significantly declining. If this atmosphere continues, institutions will likely prepare to exit, but we have a method to track this using indices.
I have always advised looking at the indices, and I will continue the discussion on indices later. Next is the 10-year Treasury yield. Stating that the stock market rose because interest rates fell or fell because rates rose causes unnecessary anxiety, making it difficult to identify the root cause of the market problem.
I mentioned that it is better for the 10-year yield to trade sideways. I have also explained past stock market movements, so I would appreciate it if you could watch the video. As it moved down into a box, an atmosphere of economic slowdown was created, and it has now fallen close to 4.2. The 10-year yield needs to rebound now.
First, it would be good for it to rise above 4.3 and into the 4.5 range; it is best if it rises based on the sentiment that the economy is improving. While rising inflation could lead to interest rates, since current inflation is likely to be interpreted as an economic slowdown, a rise in inflation is highly likely to influence interest rates to fall.
A significant decline... So, I imagine some of you might think there is a problem with the stock market, but it is still in an upward trend. You can look at the indices to see how it changes to a downward trend, which I will continue with later. Rather than worrying about every single thing that happened because interest rates went down and the stock market rose, it is more important to understand that problems arise when it drops too low.
Next, you need to look at unemployment and employment. I told you that you don't need to look at the unemployment rate for a while, right? I mentioned that employment is important even if the unemployment rate rises, because if employment is good, the unemployment rate can fall. Currently, there are mass layoffs of civil servants.
You should n't just look at whether the new unemployment rate continues to rise, but rather whether continuing unemployment benefits are also rising continuously. New unemployment claims measure the number of individuals who enrolled in unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week, while continuing unemployment claims measure the number of unemployed people eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits.
Unemployed people will appear every week, but if they find work, continuing unemployment claims will not increase. However, if unemployed people appear every week but cannot find jobs, continuing unemployment claims will increase. If continuing unemployment claims increase while unemployed people are appearing every week, it means there are no jobs, so quickly It can be interpreted as a lack of job opportunities, which could lead to talk of an economic recession.
Now, the timetable has arrived to check the state of U.S. employment. If you worry when you shouldn't and ignore when you should, your interpretation of the stock market will be delayed. Moving forward, as investors become more suspicious of the economic slowdown, they will verify whether it is true or not, and they will attempt to confirm it using the points I have mentioned.
You might ask, " Of course we should be worried," or "Shouldn't we have been doing this all along?" but this was a time when we didn't need to worry. Last August, when there was talk of Yen carry trades flowing out, I was the one who said it wasn't the case. Oh, wait, I also told you not to worry about the Deep Sea.
So, if you watch other videos and are wondering whether you should worry or not, please refer to my videos. With my long experience and know-how, I will create many videos that help you trade stocks properly. Now, let me explain using the index when a downtrend is broken. It is best to view stock market trends using futures indices.
Currently, the index has the 50-day moving average above and the 200-day moving average below. If the index stays in this zone, what will happen? The 50-day moving average will come down, and... The 200-day moving average will likely rise. If the index stays below the 200-day line, the 50-day line will drop faster.
This brings the 20-day and 200-day lines closer together. If the index continues to stay near or below the 200-day line while they are close, a " dead cross" occurs. A dead cross is a signal of a downturn; it refers to a situation where the 20-day line is above and the 50-day line is below. When the index falls while staying below the 50-day line, that is when we say the entire stock market has turned into a bear market.
Look at 2018. As the index stayed near the 200-day line, the 20-day line dropped rapidly. It then formed a dead cross and began to decline. Therefore, an index staying near the 50-day line for a long time is not considered a good market trend. It is said to be a good market trend when the index moves away from the 50-day line, then approaches it, and then rises to move away from the 20-day line again.
I have explained this before. Currently, the index has been hovering over the 50-day line for three months. This is a good market trend situation. If it continues like this... If that happens, as I mentioned earlier, it could change into a downtrend. Therefore, the most important task right now is for the index to rise above the 50-day moving average.
Those of you who have been watching my Nvidia videos will know that talk about Nvidia plunging by a few percent is something said by people who do n't understand stocks well. First of all, stocks move within a box. Rising and falling within that box is called "movement," and it is considered a rise or fall only when the box moves up or down.
Since I mentioned that the area around 135 and 116 is the box for Nvidia, even if it falls due to earnings, as long as it does n't break out of 11, it is considered sideways movement. There is nothing more to say, is there? It just needs not to fall below 116. I will explain the response strategy for SXR later.
Now for Tesla. I will continue explaining the response strategy from last time. For those who bought while waiting, I mentioned that buying was possible at 320 or 300; I'm sure there were some who doubted whether it would actually reach that level. Anyway, among those who bought, if you want to accumulate, you can do so around 270 or 260.
For those who want to average down... You can average down below 240. Since the accumulation averaging point is different, please consider this carefully and respond accordingly. The area around 270 is not just any point. When the 200 line is present, short-term indicators give buy signals. Therefore, since it is a point where day traders buy, it does not hold significant meaning for those managing positions for the long term.
Please think carefully before responding. Regarding Excel, I mentioned the bottom of the box around 22; it did n't seem like it would rise, but it did. Matching the accumulation, Nvidia reached 116 points and arrived at the bottom of the box simultaneously. Since trading involves progressing from the past, those who bought knowing the 11 point do not proceed with buying; they only need to consider whether to accumulate.
Similarly, for Excel, those who bought around 27 should only consider accumulating and selling at 22. The basic stock trading strategy within the box is to consider only increasing the volume rather than averaging down. To understand this, you must fully grasp that stocks move within a box. Those who have been waiting to buy proceed at the accumulation point.
However, for those who have been managing positions from the past, since this is a point where they do not buy, the first buyer You will respond by adjusting your volume. You should make scout-like purchases with the mindset that you intend to grow this stock. If you find learning charts too difficult, you can buy and manage at the price levels I mentioned.
There are members who find the membership challenging, but they manage their investments by only using the designated slots. Since this is one of the easiest ways to trade stocks, they are achieving returns of over 100%. I am saying this so we can make money together, so there is no reason for you not to do it, right?
Palantir has dropped to the 80 level I mentioned. This is not evaluated based on a company's earnings; the stock price can fall like this due to the flow of the market. Furthermore, Palantir is not currently on a bullish timetable for mid-cap stocks, and since growth is poor, it could fall even further.
It cannot be judged based on the company's value. Please keep a close eye on the 80 level. If it drops below 80, I will find the bottom of the box and let you know. No, you can simply stop buying for a moment. If you chase after a short-term rebound, additional problems could arise, so I hope you observe the overall market situation before re-approaching.
In my opinion, if it goes below $20, it will be a buy signal. I am watching to see if it will break out. The NXPI is in a downtrend; a death cross has occurred. If it stays below the 50-day moving average, further declines become possible. The level I see as potential is below the 180 mark, where a double top has been hit.
It is a position where a short-term rebound could occur. Do not be fooled by a short-term rebound and enter the market; if an opportunity arises, I recommend buying below $200 to start long-term management. The meta is still decent. Since the stock price is close to the moving averages, a golden cross could occur between short-term and medium-term indicators.
You shouldn't look at charts like this. When it reaches the moving average, the short-term indicators give a buy signal first, and if it stays near the moving average, the medium-term indicators give a buy signal next. That is the principle. You shouldn't look at charts like this. You can consider that buying sentiment is maintained only when it stays above 640.
It has upside potential, and if positive news enters the market, further gains are possible. Next is Teladoc. Teladoc is the ultimate penny stock. I believe that not discussing it is helping you better, so I will move on. A long bearish candle appeared, but just because it dropped a little, you might ask if it is heading into a bear market.
Please do not make decisions on your own; following the advice I gave earlier is the way to a bear market, so I hope you keep a close eye on the progress. Also, stock trading isn't about buying at the bottom; it's about responding well during downturns like the current one to hold on until a bull market arrives.
Stock trading isn't about getting excited over short-term rebounds or short-term gains. It is about looking forward to the moment you encounter a bull market and soar. We are preparing our response in advance for that. That is why I intend to share my response methods. Please don't wander aimlessly alone.
If you want to trade stocks easily or prepare your response before the bull market arrives, I ask for your interest in the membership. Your subscriptions, likes, and thank-you comments are a great source of motivation for me to create videos. I will see you in the next video. Thank you.
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